Well, this Nate Silver chart punctuates the importance of GOTV.

[catbyte]

Link to tweet

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
12:11 PM · Sep 2, 2020

[Botany]

1. aka we have to crush the vote this fall

n/t

[world wide wally]

2. A sad reflection on American democracy

[Midnight Writer]

3. It's not just the Electoral College we need to crush. We need to overcome gerrymanders down ticket.

The best thing for our country is a huge turnout of voters.

Time to clean house.

[Sherman A1]

4. Agreed

This needs to be a overwhelming defeat of the GOP.

[MANative]

5. Yes, but this portion of the discussion is truly fuel for nightmares...

Link to tweet

?s=20

Discussing leads in CA, MA, NY that far outstrip Obama's wins. Piling on in these huge blue states doesn't help in the EC battle, unfortunately.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. This is a weird take when it literally gives Biden a 99% chance if he wins by that much.

I'm starting to think some of you really do want to lose. You're really getting nightmare fuel out of something that has a 1% chance of happening?

[MANative]

9. Seriously?

Read all of Nate's analysis on this. It's terrifying. Joe can have that 7 point lead in head-to-head polls, but because the margin is so huge in the big blue states, it doesn't translate to winning the swing states needed to get over the EC hurdle. Many swing state polls are still much closer than I'd like them to be, especially in the larger states like FL and TX where we could get a bigger chunk of the EC votes. 10 from MN is not going to cut it.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Seriously?

Are you just purposely ignoring Nate's initial tweet where Biden winning by 7% gives him a 99% chance of winning the EC?

If you're going to dwell on something that has a one-percent chance of happening, do it in private.

[MANative]

15. The tweet referenced here was a follow up to his original.

That suggests to me that it's a disclaimer, at least. My opinion is just as valid as any other poster's.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. There's no point in putting a disclaimer on something that has a 1% chance of happening

And there's no point in worrying over something that crazy. 99% chance is pretty fucking good in my book.

[BannonsLiver]

11. +10000

Doom is “in” around here. Even when it’s irrational

[BannonsLiver]

10. Except that's not how national polls are conducted

They’re not weighted disproportionately toward blue states, as you suggest.

[MANative]

14. Not my personal statistical conclusion. It's Nate's and he knows a heck of a lot more than ...

most of us do about polling and statistics. Not saying he's infallible, by any stretch, but it's not nothing, either.

[Thekaspervote]

6. Look at the Economist polling. Nate Silver is no longer doing unbiased polling!!

Remember the dem primary? After 2 caucus nights silver calls it for sanders winning 49 states, despite sanders vote count being down 15% from 16 and no youth vote!

Silver wants a horse race too...keeps the money coming in as you return again and again to his site.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Also please realize just because Biden is at 46% doesn't mean Trump is the favorite.

46% chance would still likely be significantly larger than Trump's chance of winning if Biden won the popular vote by that amount.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. I remember this chart from 2016

Hillary was <1% at 0-1, if I remember correctly. I remember seeing that and being numbed.

The national polls are very helpful but like a pointspread in betting. The spread is essentially -3.5. Trump is closer to a back door cover than it appears.

However, this should serve to dispel the nonsense that Trump could win the national vote by huge margin and still squeak out the electoral college. It is clear that 5 points is extraordinarily safe. But that 5 points won't be evident early on election night. Trump will be leading the popular vote. The big numbers don't come later until the West and particularly California are heard from.

[Roland99]

17. I believe Hillary's final vote margin was 2.09% more overall votes

a bump up to even 3% would almost certainly be a win for Biden


And Kaine was not much of a charismatic running mate, imho


Kamala is kick-ass and an amazing addition to the ticket!