How Minnesota Became a 2020 Election Battleground

[question everything]

With nine weeks to Election Day, both parties are investing heavily in Minnesota, underscoring its status as President Trump’s best potential pickup opportunity in a campaign where he is mostly playing defense against Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger. Minnesota hasn’t backed a GOP candidate for president since 1972, but Mr. Trump came within 45,000 votes of winning the state four years ago, and campaign aides argue it is trending his way. Of the dozen states rated as most competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Minnesota is one of only two—along with New Hampshire—won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Public polling in the state has been sparse. Democrats insist they will keep Minnesota in their column. Mr. Trump’s allies, however, say there may be an opening for his law-and-order message after the looting and destruction that accompanied peaceful protests in the wake of George Floyd’s killing in Minneapolis police custody. They also say Mr. Trump could benefit from the Democratic Party’s shift to the left, which may trouble the state’s more-moderate voters.

(snip)

For Mr. Trump, trailing Mr. Biden in most national and battleground polls, a win in Minnesota could help offset the loss of one of the states he captured in 2016. His campaign has been increasingly pessimistic about Michigan, for example, and is putting fewer resources there. One person close to the campaign expressed more confidence in taking Minnesota than holding Michigan. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes, as does neighboring Wisconsin, while Michigan has 16.

(snip)

Mr. Trump has $14.8 million in spending booked for Minnesota, a total that could shrink or grow because payment isn’t typically made until the ads actually run. Mr. Biden has $3.8 million planned there for the next two months. A new Trump ad airing in Minnesota starting Wednesday says Mr. Biden “takes a knee” in the face of urban violence and criticizes Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, a Democrat, as a “radical.” Mr. Biden’s campaign planned to start running new ads in the Twin Cities, Rochester and Duluth this week. Mr. Trump has large fall advertising buys placed in the same three markets—all of which have the added benefit of covering parts of western Wisconsin.

One new Biden spot questions Mr. Trump’s leadership on the coronavirus pandemic, offering the former vice president as someone with the experience to “lead through a crisis.” Another stresses Mr. Biden’s working-class roots and pitches him as a man of the people, while accusing Mr. Trump of advocating for himself and his “wealthy friends.”

Minnesota currently has a Democratic governor, two Democrats represent the state in the U.S. Senate, and five of its eight members of the U.S. House are Democrats. It produced two Democratic vice presidents. But Republicans have had some success in statewide offices over the years. The most-reliable pockets of GOP support are in the outer suburbs and exurbs of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area as well as much of rural Minnesota. The state’s sprawling Eighth Congressional District in the northeastern part of the state, which Mr. Trump won in 2016 with 54% of the vote, is an area where his campaign is especially looking for strength.

The campaign plans to focus its messaging on safety and the economy. Campaign aides argue that they can motivate more voters in working-class and rural areas to offset the Democratic-leaning Twin Cities. They liken the effort to the president’s successful turnout in similar regions of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin four years ago. In 2016, Mr. Trump’s appeals to working-class and rural voters helped him upend traditional Democratic support in the Eighth Congressional District. He carried three of seven counties on the Iron Range, a hardscrabble section of northern Minnesota with a long history of boom-and-bust economies that have fallen victim to cheaper steel imports and taconite mine closures.

More..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-minnesota-became-a-2020-election-battleground-11599048000 (subscription)

[msongs]

1. hillary barely won it by about 45K votes nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. 2016 was not a good year for Hillary

I wonder if it would be as close for Biden this year.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. Interesting

I heard a few months back that Trump/GOP was going to make a play for Minnesota. It will be interesting if it actually goes red.

[RhodeIslandOne]

4. If it does, we will lose the election

For the record, I do not think it will nor will it be that close.

[Locutusofborg]

8. I'm fine with losing MN & PA

while picking up FL & AZ! 30 Electoral votes lost but 40 gained!

[RhodeIslandOne]

15. I can't see Biden losing PA

I don’t see this election working that way.

But Florida is rigged and you can’t convince me otherwise.

[Trumpocalypse]

18. Not necessarily

It’s only 10 electoral votes. All the other battleground states have more votes.

[RhodeIslandOne]

22. Wisconsin also has 10

I don’t envision Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Minnesota.

[Trumpocalypse]

23. You never know

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. For the life of me, I don't understand political advertising.

I, personally, don't listen and don't take the advertising messages seriously, on either side, Well, not true, I agree with the Democratic message at this time. But, I don't know how this messaging sways votes. I make up my mind, based on years of documented reality of the candidate's reactions and record. No election ad would sway me otherwise. I doubt, people reading propaganda from their sources will change their minds, either.....unless, they have a transcendental moment...or have a serious brain injury.

[underpants]

6. Did anyone really NEED a Snuggie?

By the 12th to 16th time a product is presented to someone the likelihood of them buying increases almost straight up. It works.

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. Never bought one of those....

I will say Google advertising is impressive, though. When I research a product I want, I get to see it every time I use the innertubes.

[underpants]

9. Yeah. I've bought some things for work while teleworking

using my wifi at home and when I’ve gotten on my devices those type items are popping up. Scary.

[crickets]

10. Pushing the narrative. nt

[Loki Liesmith]

11. Has it though?

[question everything]

13. Trump lost MN by the slimmest margin

Recent polls show the race is tightening, within the margin of error. It even affects the Senatorial race which is now viewed as a toss up.

The only Democratic seats which were flipped by R’s in 2018 are in Minnesota. And it appears that one more will be this year.

[Loki Liesmith]

20. The polling average looks pretty stable tbh

I don’t put much stock in recent polls. They’ve tended to be low quality ones. But even with them in their the polling average hasn’t made a big move.

[Takket]

12. .

"They also say Mr. Trump could benefit from the Democratic Party’s shift to the left, which may trouble the state’s more-moderate voters. "

Huh?

By nominating Joe Biden?

isn't he considered almost a centrist?

[question everything]

14. Everything is relative.

Today centrist is not what used to be. Sanders - who is nor even a Democrat - and his followers, who used to be considered the fringe are now main stream.

Biden adopted many of Sanders’ ideas to have him and his followers in the big tent.

More Democrats should have condemned the riots earlier.

[waterwatcher123]

16. Trump and the Wall Street Journal Know Absolutely Nothing About Minnesota.

I have lived in Duluth for the past 30 plus years. The Iron Range is quite a bit like mining areas everywhere in the country. They will fall in line with just about anyone who supports their livelihoods. Trump may very well carry the Iron Range. But, he is going to lose in Rochester, parts of western Minnesota and in the suburbs around the Twin Cities. Three fourths of the state's population live in the Twin Cities metro area. So, if he does not do well in the Twin Cities, the Iron Range will not matter whatsoever.

Our current Republican Congressman (Stauber) is too much of a coward to put his party affiliation on his signs. He is simply the beneficiary of lots of people who know of his large and extended family and their involvement in hockey. So, while the 8th Congressional District in MN is significantly larger now, people are voting for the Stauber name and not the Republican Party affiliation.

Maybe Rupert Murdoch's personal mouth pieces at the WSJ should actually spend some time in the places they claim to understand.

[judeling]

19. Yep

And I'm not to sure Trump will end up doing well in CD1 either. Ethanol really bit.

[judeling]

17. Minnesota was always a swing state

It just didn't look like it from the outside.
Yes the race has tightened lately but I don't expect that to last.

Right now there is a bit of indifference because quite frankly Walz has done a great job with Covid. Minnesota never had a terrible spike, never shut down very hard, never opened up too much, and has handled the Midwest resurgence well. The Virus never got out of hand enough to truly scare nor did the shut downs damage the economy enough to truly anger. This has led to a lot of none engagement in the election yet.

But that is just normal actually. It is much how Minnesota always reacts. It still consistently has the highest participation. It has great faith in its election machinery. It also has a real history of not really getting into it until after Labor Day.

I expect that as weeks move on team Blue's numbers will just get better and better. At the presidential level I would only be surprised if Biden doesn't win by double digits.

[SlogginThroughIt]

21. Mn hasn't been a swing state in a long assed time.

Sorry but it just isn’t true that it has been a swing state. It would have to swing once in a while for that to be true.