update 14 minutes ago at 538: "Biden is favored to win the election"

[gristy]

Just yesterday it had read "Biden is slightly favored to win the election"
woo-hoo!
But do note that they are still giving the orange anus a 30% chance of winning...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

[DonaldsRump]

1. 29 out of those 30% points

are an acknowledgement of how adept the R's are at cheating and accepting Putin's interference. I will not deny them that.

[Takket]

5. exactly....

it would be incredibly naive to believe Biden will win the election just because the polls say he has enough electoral and popular votes to win. you need to account for the upcoming ratfucking which will be like nothing this country has ever seen.

Biden needs to win overwhelmingly to offset the cheating. at least +10%

[regnaD kciN]

8. Some of it is their Electoral College advantage from having lots of small red states...

A couple of days ago, Silver estimated Biden's chances of winning the EC based on his popular vote margin -- if he won by 1% or less, his chances of beating Trump to 270 EV were only 6%. He would have to win the popular vote by 4% or higher just to have more than a 50-50 chance of being elected.

[DonaldsRump]

9. Undoubtedly

This has to be a blow-out for the EV/EC and for the deNazification of the US. That's the only way we are going to come back to some semblance of normalcy.

I hope we are going for broke and get all 538 EVs!

[jorgevlorgan]

2. And only days before ballots are mailed to North Carolina!

Hopefully this goes the right way!

[jcgoldie]

3. seems the difference between "slightly favored" and "favored"

Is that Joe went from 69% to 70%.

[cos dem]

4. You gotta draw the line somewhere.

What pisses me off is this is roughly the same probability he had in 2016, and we all know how that came out. He still should lose in 2/3 parallel universes, but crap, I hope we're not in the 1/9 universes where he wins twice!

[DonaldsRump]

6. Well, when this monster incumbent Fat Slob is

the cause of 200,000 Americans dead and growing, making the US a Russian colony, tanking the economy, causing and stoking civil unrest, etc etc, I do not think Americans are that dumb.

HE IS THE INCUMBENT. PERIOD. END OF DISCUSSION.

[jcgoldie]

7. The difference is ...

In 2016 nate had Hillary at 70% on election night. This is 2 months out and I expect if Joe can maintain this lead that likelihood will increase considerably.

[regnaD kciN]

10. Pretty sure he had her at 71.5% on Election Eve...

...but one can't draw too strong an equivalence because 538, and the polling organizations they depend on, reworked their methods and calculations after the 2016 debacle. For example, it was found the model assumed slightly more whites voting would have a college education than actually turned out to be the case and, given the huge disparity in preferences depending on whether you had been to college or not, that oversight proved to be critical. One may well assume that everyone's model has been revised over the past four years and, if anything, probably calculates in slightly more Trump support than it should.

[cos dem]

11. 30%, 28.5%, they're all basically the same.

Point is, this is way too high of a probability. He should be orders of magnitude lower, like 0.0001% chance of winning.