It's official: There's no Trump bounce out of the conventions
(CNN)In the days leading up to the start of the Democratic National Convention in mid-August, CNN's poll of polls -- an aggregate of all credible national surveys -- showed Joe Biden with a 51% to 42% edge over Donald Trump. As of Thursday morning, with both national party conventions behind us, the CNN poll of polls had Biden at 51% to Trump's 43%.
So, yeah. For all the speeches and all of the spin of the last two weeks, the race on September 3 is pretty much where it was on August 3.
And that's true for numbers outside of the national head-to-head as well. In a CNN poll in mid-August -- before either of the conventions -- 42% approved of the way Trump was handling his job. In a CNN poll released on Wednesday, 41% said the same. Trump's numbers on handling the economy (51% approval pre-convention/50% approval post-convention) and the coronavirus (38% approval pre-convention/40% approval post-convention) didn't move in a statistically significant way, either. And one more: In mid-August, Biden had a 9-point edge on Trump when it came to which candidate voters thought could better handle the coronavirus pandemic. In CNN's new poll, Biden's lead over Trump on that question was 12 points.
On a state-by-state basis, the race looks similar as well. Fox News polls released Wednesday night show Biden with a 9-point lead over Trump in Arizona, an 8-point edge in Wisconsin and a narrower 4-point lead in North Carolina. Monmouth University polls show Biden up 2 on Trump in North Carolina and 3 in Pennsylvania. Yes, you can cherry pick a poll or two here or there that seems to suggest real movement for Trump in a swing state, but viewed broadly, the polling data confirms what we are seeing on the national level: The race is in the same place it was a month ago.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/politics/dnc-rnc-donald-trump-joe-biden-2020-election/index.html
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