Is a civil war inevitable at this point?

[jcmaine72]

I just can't see Trump and his legion of drooling automatons accepting a Biden win under any circumstances, especially if there's a so-called "Red Mirage" on Election Day.

By the same token, if Trump successfully schemes to have millions of mail-in ballots summarily discarded or invalidated, I don't see why Americans opposing Trump's tyranny should be expected to take it lying down.

I don't believe violence is ever an effective solution to any problem. However, and I hope I'm wrong, we might be beyond the point in our country where our democracy can be preserved in any other way. A cataclysmic clash seems inevitable.

Again, I hope I'm wrong.

[Celerity]

1. If Rump wins and does what I think he will do, then yes, 95% likely within 10 to 20 years MAX, and

possibly far sooner (in a limited form to start out with).

If he loses, and his entire rat's nest of white nationalist/traitors/kleptocrats are NOT held to a FULL account, AND the white nationalism is harnessed and given succour enough to still keep it front and centre in the Rethuglican Party, then yes, but odds are down to 67% to 75% or so.

[TreasonousBastard]

3. Nah. Don't forget that Rump's entire life was failure...

barely managing to get out of messes with being a little better than flat broke. That TV show was the only thing he ever do that made money.

No reason to think he's capable of more than making the kind of mess we see now. Actually, his usual trick is to bail and brag.

[lunatica]

4. What are they going to fight for?

Trump will be in jail or gone out of the country.

It’s not like he ever wanted the job. He just liked the trappings. And the fact that he couldn’t be indicted as a sitting president.

Other than a few idiots with guns running around playing commando there’s no organized group that the FBI can’t easily round up.

[qazplm135]

5. How would a civil war work

When the divide is rural v urban and suburban?

[wnylib]

6. Spanish Civil War in 1930's

Liberal Spanish urban population against conservative Spanish rural population. Conservatives won, leaving Franco in control of a fascist dictatorship.

[Kaleva]

9. Franco wouldn't have got far w/o the considerable aid provided to him by outside world powers

Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. For your analogy to work, Putin would have to send men, tanks, fighters, bombers and other supplies to Trump supporters.

[wnylib]

45. I wasn't trying to make an analogy.

I used the Spanish Civil War to show that not all civil wars follow the US pattern of a specific geographical region seceding and pitting two clearly defined geographical regions against each other.

As you said, Nazi Germany and fascist Italy aided the nationalists in Spain. Mexico and the Soviet Union aided the republican side (small "r" republic vs. monarchy). Thousands of volunteers from other nations joined the fight against the Spanish Falangists. Within Spain the war was initially over a republic vs. a near absolute monarchy. But due to the rise of communism and fascism in the world, it became a proxy war for socialists against fascists. Socialists and communists took the side of the republic. Fascists, conservatives, monarchists, and the Catholic Church took the side of the army overthrowing the republic.

There is no real analogy between 20th century Spain and the US today, but there are some parallels. The world stage is similar today with the rise of RW extremism outside the US as well as within. Internally, the US is split between political extremes of left and right. We went through a similar, though not identical, period during the Depression when Americans lost faith in government and economic institutions. Some sided with communism and the Soviet Union in their opposition to fascism. Some very prominent Americans supported the rise of fascism in Europe and the US. FDR kept us from destroying ourselves with either extreme. But real unity in the US didn't come until we were dragged into WWII. I am placing my faith in Biden/Harris to pull us together without an internal or external war. I believe that they can, but they need our full support for the tough political battles in the process.

[qazplm135]

18. Franco started the war

In control of multiple major cities.

He held contiguous land in the South and West.

America isn't set up for a civil war very well at all.

[wnylib]

19. The divisions in Spain between left and right, conservative

and liberal, monarchists versus republicanism, started in the mid 19th century, long before Franco. He led one faction that already existed. There were some regional divisions beyond rural and urban, e.g. east versus south and west. The most support for the republic was in the cities of Madrid, Valencia, Bilbao, and Malaga.

My point is that Americans make a mistake in limiting our view of civil war to the idea of specific regions and secession because that was our past experience. But in other countries, civil wars have been fought across regions over ideologies. Spain is one example of that.

Another is Britain in its 17th century civil war of monarchy against parliament, or roundheads versus cavaliers. Prior to that, in the 15th century, it was Yorkists versus Lancastrians.

Even our own American Revolution can be seen as a civil war as well as a revolution since the people of the colonies were divided between those who supported independence versus those who remained loyal to the crown. Communities, and even families (Ben Franklin vs his son) were split in their loyalties.

Civil war is not limited to one geographical region against another.

[qazplm135]

23. I didn't say "Franco started the war."

I said "Franco started the war in control of several major cities."

Which he did.

He had control of areas.

Most all revolutions and civil wars involve a geographical base of support.

Just because there may be pockets within that base doesn't erase that.

Particularly in the modern era.

[wnylib]

34. Inevitably, in any conflict, there are pockets

of one type or another. I live in a state that is considered very blue. But outside of NYC, Buffalo, and Rochester, most of the rural areas of NY are red. The suburbs of the blue cities in NY tend to be red, too, but not all of them. In some areas that border Buffalo there are some very extreme RW supremacists and militias that distribute leaflets in the city.

These variances exist across the country, with a predominance of one perspective or another, but with pockets of opposing views among them.

I am NOT saying that a civil war will occur in the US. But I am saying that, if such a war developed, it would not follow geographically clear cut borders. There would be attempts to establish geographical bases to operate from, and then spread out to try to take over other areas. It would involve a patchwork pattern of fighting for political control of the entire nation instead of the clear cut North vs South of the 19th century American Civil War.

[qazplm135]

42. And I'm saying that it's pretty difficult

To have a civil war in a country as large as the US without control of fairly significant and at least somewhat contiguous parts of the country where you have a large majority of the population of that region behind you. Not to mention agriculture and manufacturing.

Where would that be? Not GA or FL. Not even Texas anymore. Maybe Appalachia but there's a whole lot of disconnect. Not the Midwest. Maybe the west coast but they are more likely to just secede than go to war.

We are too mixed.

[Klaralven]

46. Cambodia and the Khmer Rouge

The objective was to implement a Utopian agrarian socialist society. City dwellers were generally classed as enemies of the revolution and executed.

[qazplm135]

49. Not even remotely comparable

to the US.

[misanthrope]

7. Not unless you can fight it from your couch

Americans don't have the energy or stamina for such.

[stopbush]

8. No. Once tRump is out the roaches will scurry back to the underside of the nearest rock.

Besides, it's hard to have a nationwide civil war when yer car is up on blocks in yer front yard.

[Kaleva]

10. It will be fought on the internet. Facebook, Twitter and such.

A tiny percentage of the combatants will leave the home but not enough, in my opinion, to have a direct impact on the lives of the vast majority of us.

[musicblind]

40. That is an interesting take

and one I haven't heard before — the first ever social media civil war.

From a sociological standpoint, that is fascinating. After all, we do everything else online... Therapy sessions, dating, sex, house parties, political debates, even funerals and weddings... why not add war to the list?

At least few would actually die.

[Kaleva]

53. Just like the Civil War, a modern civil war fought on social media breaks up friendships & family

[Hekate]

11. No, jcmaine72, it is not inevitable

[Sherman A1]

12. It has been going on in various forms

Since the 1860s. Will this latest version get a little hotter? Perhaps, perhaps not.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. I don't see civil war--as you think civil war of the 1860's

I read where some are calling it a civil cold war. For years it's been called a cultural war. Either of those seem like better descriptions. Everyone likes their stuff too much for a true civil war.

But the differences will remain. The country will remain divided on issues such as racial injustice, women's rights (especially reproductive rights), LGTBQ rights, laws/policies that favor the wealthy, the overall separation of church and state.

Sometimes I think this divide is at its peak and will begin to narrow. But this election, with the crazy conspiracy theories being promoted on the Republican side, makes me reconsider. I'm not sure we are at the peak yet. Sadly.

[musicblind]

41. I think Carl Bernstein was the first to call it a cold civil war,

Last edited Fri Sep 11, 2020, 03:26 AM - Edit history (1)

and I think he was on to something.

It certainly feels like our differences are irreconcilable, but it also feels like we're not willing to kill millions of people over it.

I pray Bernstein's war remains cold. A hot civil war would devastate this country. It would make the smoldering ashes of Syria look like campfires.

[abqtommy]

14. I think that we should be aware of our choices and have plans in place to deal with each one.

I remember studying about Chamberlain and "Peace in our time" in 1938. I remember studying
about that and how it failed and it was on to Plan B. I remember that and the result that was a terrible
war.

Let's be aware and have an appropriate plan.

[Kaleva]

15. what is your plan?

My plan is to continue to do what I've been doing for sometime now.

I'm stocked with enough water, food and other supplies for about 45 days. There's a severe shortage of ammo this year but I was able to purchase 100 rounds of .38 Special for my revolver back in June. I've reinforced the outside doors and the master bedroom door by installing heavy duty strike plates and replacing some of the hinge screws with 3" long screws along with using 3" long screws for the strike plates. Wife allowed me to install a deadbolt on the master bedroom door.

[abqtommy]

16. I like your plan. Sounds like you're ready to respond appropriately if necessary.

[Kaleva]

17. I'm actually working on preparing for the disruptions climate change will bring.

Social and economic upheaval. Preparing for that also prepares me for the chaos that would come if Trump were to try and remain in power after losing the election.

It's a sure bet that climate change will come and it's happening now and I don't think Trump would try and overthrow the government but if he does, I'm about as ready as I can be.

[brooklynite]

21. Please don't move into my neighborhood...

[Kaleva]

25. I'd rather live near people who take climate change seriously

Many talk about it but from what I observe, few seem to making any effort whatsoever preparing for it.

Within easy walking distance from my home live most of my family who have large gardens and skill sets that pooled together, can greatly assist getting through times of social and economic disruption.

[brooklynite]

29. NYC does take climate change seriously; most people here don't own cars...

We also limit gun ownership to people who have a legitimate and documented security need.

[Kaleva]

32. That doesn't tell me how people in NYC are preparing for the effects of climate change

Based on the best science available, the effects for the area I live in will be milder winters, wetter and hotter summers and a longer growing season. What is it for the NYC area and how does not having a car tell a person that info?

We all know climate change is coming. I'd be interested in hearing from you what New Yorkers are doing to prepare for it.

[brooklynite]

33. Not having a car (and programming congestion pricing for drivers into Manhattan...)

...helps reduce emissions which exacerbate climate change.

New York City unveils ambitious plan for local steps to tackle climate change
New York City has approved an ambitious plan to combat climate change by forcing thousands of large buildings to slash their greenhouse gas emissions.

The legislation passed on Thursday by the city council puts caps on carbon emissions for buildings over 25,000 sq ft – requiring a 40% overall cut in their emissions by 2030.

The mandates, touted as a local version of the Green New Deal embraced by many progressive Democrats, will apply to 50,000 buildings – from buildings with a few dozen apartments to Trump Tower, the president’s Fifth Avenue skyscraper which advocates have targeted as a major polluter.

“It will be the largest emissions reduction policy ever, in any city,” said the city councilman Costa Constantinides, who spearheaded the bills.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/18/new-york-city-buildings-greenhouse-gas-emissions

[Kaleva]

36. You can't just reduce emissions, you have to eliminate them.

Plus one needs to reduce the greenhouse gases that are already in the atmosphere. Without those measures, climate change will happen and it's already happening. The measures you tell me about will not prevent climate change and they certainly don't tell me how New Yorkers are preparing for climate change nor does it tell me if New Yorkers know what effects climate change will bring to their area..

[brooklynite]

39. Name a jurisdiction that is eliminating emissions...

[Kaleva]

54. There isn't any. Probably because there's so many folks, like you, who don't know what's coming.

If one doesn't know or apparently care to find out, then there really isn't much incentive to to stop climate change, much less reverse it. And New Yorkers can't even begin to prepare to adapt because they don't know what's expected even though that info is readily available.

[brooklynite]

20. As with so many thing;people take a handful of high profile examples...

...and extrapolate a much larger group.

There are not millions of people willing to take up arms in some unstructured way to over throw the Government, nor will there be tens of thousands of police and military violating their operating rules.

[ProfessorGAC]

22. +1

Nailed it!

[qwlauren35]

24. After having read a recent report

about the violence we've seen this summer, I believe that it is severely over-reported.

More than 95% of all protests are peaceful. And there have been TEN THOUSAND PROTESTS. 10,000. Think about it.

Only 10% were met with government intervention and only 54% turned violent, back to 5%. 95% non-violent.

ONLY 50 incidents have had non-government intervention and 360 counter-protests and of them only 12% turned violent. 43 incidents out of 10,000 protests.


IT'S BEING OVER-REPORTED. 95% OF THE PROTESTS ARE NON-VIOLENT. Not by BLM, not by insurgents, not by cops, not by counter-protesters.

I am no longer worried.

[roamer65]

26. Here's the biggest question the whole world will ask.

Who gets the nukes?

[Tarc]

27. "civil war" is the battle-cry of incel Call of Duty cosplayers on the internet

these gutless cowards will never do anything of the sort. Don't give weight to their hot air.

[Oneironaut]

28. Two roving insurgencies murdering each other and the innocent civilians in between?

No thanks!

I think Trump can be defeated by peaceful means no matter what he does.

[bluestarone]

30. NO BUT

If there is remember THESE ASSHOLES will not fight FAIR they will use whatever means possible to them!! JUST BE READY for ANYTHING!!

[Blue_true]

31. No. Civil War means both sides fighting and killing.

MAGATS won’t risk shooting at something that shoots back.

[qwlauren35]

35. It will not happen.

The number of people who would actually bring out guns over the election might be 1% of the nation. Even though 40% of America might be voting for him, they aren't all gun-nuts. All those "Karens" and "Brads", no guns. I refuse to believe that most of the 40% would go to war over the election.

[BannonsLiver]

37. Let us know when you get the fife and drum corps together

[hunter]

38. We can stuff these racist clowns back in their closets just by voting and speaking up.

They are cowards.

It won't be long now before they're claiming, "Nope, I NEVER supported Trump, NEVER voted for him."

They'll dump Trump quicker than Trump dumps anyone who criticizes him.

[Willto]

43. If he loses....

....and we can get him dislodged from the White House then no civil war. Most of his supporters run their mouth a lot but are your typical lard-ass chicken hawks. As they say in Texas "All hat, no cattle".

They will rant and rave and froth at the mouth while talking about such things but ultimately they won't do shit.

[herding cats]

44. I live amongst Trump's base. I know them extremely well and they are cowards by majority.

There's a few exceptions, such as some of the the white supremacist ones you're seeing and some other extreme militia ones, but the vast majority are deeply out of shape blowhards. They like to play with guns, but only when there's no chance of anyone shooting back at them.

There will be no civil war because there's simply not enough of them who can jog 1/2 mile, are willing to sacrifice their time away from their favorite TV shows, are willing to go without their fast food fixes or would willingly put their lazy asses on the line for Trump. These people are idiots, that's true. But, they're also EXTREMELY out of shape, lazy and most importantly, huge cowards.

This covers the majority of the fools you see spouting off on social media. They talk the talk, just don't expect them to actually have to physically walk anyplace. That's just not their thing.

[uponit7771]

51. lol, the 82nd CharBorne will only fight after their naps

[Klaralven]

47. Civil wars typically require significant outside assistance.

More frequent are events where the government is removed by the existing military in a coup. Since the military is well organized and has resources, these are usually short and don't involve a lot of fighting. Sometimes they also involve outside support, such as the coup against Allende in Chile.

[Cosmocat]

48. We will continue to be a complete shitshow

45 will not go away IF he loses and IF we can get him out of there. His ego is to large, and his grasp on the con sheep far too strong. He was a thorn in BHO's rear with the birtherism BS, he will be more malicious now.

This will cause a bit of a fraction within the R party, which will puff its chest a bit and make half hearted proclamations of trying to regain control like they did going into the 16 conventions, but nothing will come of it because they will pathetically yield to the whims of the lunatic base they created, which will remain loyal to 45.

EITHER WAY, they do what they do - come up with insane bullshit to deligitimize the D POTUS.

AND, the media will eagerly give life to it and the country will eagerly indulge it like Benghazi, emails, etc.

We have no hope, none to continue to be a shit show until the "middle" third gives up the both siderism bullshit and sees them for the unhinged lunatics they are.

Our 1/3 are pushing mud.

[OnDoutside]

50. The one definite Civil War is the one with the Republican Party, when they go down in flames

on Nov 3rd.

[roman88]

52. No.

You'll see the usual suspects fighting each other in the streets while regular people go about thier business as usual. Though it'll be a different story if they try to pull regular people in thier games.