Demonstrations and Violence - What's Really Going On...

[qwlauren35]

I found this article by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. It's AMAZING. They have been covering what has been happening this summer and have data up to August 22nd. Here is the link:

https://acleddata.com/2020/09/03/demonstrations-political-violence-in-america-new-data-for-summer-2020/

There is SO much information, and I can't begin to synopsize it. It records the protests and where they are happening, the violence (93% of the protesting is non-violent), the police and state response to the violence, the federal government response to the violence, the non-authorized response and agitation of the violence.

Here are snips.

The United States is at heightened risk of political violence and instability going into the 2020 general election. Mass shootings hit a record high last year (BBC, 29 December 2019), violent hate crimes are on the rise (Al Jazeera, 13 November 2019), and police killings continue unabated, at 2.5 times the rate1 for Black men as for white men (FiveThirtyEight, 1 June 2020; Nature, 19 June 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic has killed well over 180,000 (New York Times, 3 September 2020) and disrupted the economy, while George Floyd’s death in police custody has sparked a massive wave of protest across the country.... the United States is in crisis. It faces a multitude of concurrent, overlapping risks — from police abuse and racial injustice, to pandemic-related unrest and beyond — all exacerbated by increasing polarization. This report maps these trends with a view toward the upcoming election, when these intersecting risks are likely to intensify.

Floyd’s death prompted a surge of demonstrations associated with the Black Lives Matter (BLM)2 movement that quickly spread from Minneapolis throughout the country. Between 26 May, the day after Floyd’s death, and 22 August, ACLED records over 7,750 demonstrations linked to the BLM movement across more than 2,440 locations in all 50 states and Washington, DC.

Between 24 May and 22 August, ACLED records more than 10,600 demonstration events across the country. Over 10,100 of these — or nearly 95% — involve peaceful protesters. Fewer than 570 — or approximately 5% — involve demonstrators engaging in violence. Well over 80% of all demonstrations are connected to the Black Lives Matter movement or the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet, despite data indicating that demonstrations associated with the BLM movement are overwhelmingly peaceful, one recent poll suggested that 42% of respondents believe “most protesters [associated with the BLM movement] are trying to incite violence or destroy property” (FiveThirtyEight, 5 June 2020).

Research from the University of Washington indicates that this disparity stems from political orientation and biased media framing (Washington Post, 24 August 2020), such as disproportionate coverage of violent demonstrations (Business Insider, 11 June 2020)...

Despite the media focus on looting and vandalism, however, there is little evidence to suggest that demonstrators have engaged in widespread violence. In some cases where demonstrations did turn violent, there are reports of agents provocateurs — or infiltrators — instigating the violence.

Overall, ACLED data indicate that government forces soon took a heavy-handed approach to the growing protest movement. In demonstrations where authorities are present, they use force more often than not. Data show that they have disproportionately used force while intervening in demonstrations associated with the BLM movement, relative to other types of demonstrations.

Despite the fact that demonstrations associated with the BLM movement have been overwhelmingly peaceful, more than 9% — or nearly one in 10 — have been met with government intervention, compared to 3% of all other demonstrations. This also marks a general increase in intervention rates relative to this time last year. In July 2019, authorities intervened in under 2% of all demonstrations — fewer than 30 events — relative to July 2020, when they intervened in 9% of all demonstrations — or over 170 events.

Authorities have used force — such as firing less-lethal weapons like tear gas, rubber bullets, and pepper spray or beating demonstrators with batons — in over 54% of the demonstrations in which they have engaged. This too is a significant increase relative to one year ago. In July 2019, government personnel used force in just three documented demonstrations, compared to July 2020, when they used force against demonstrators in at least 65 events.

In the immediate aftermath of Floyd’s killing, President Trump posted a series of social media messages threatening to deploy the military and National Guard to disperse demonstrations, suggesting that authorities should use lethal force if demonstrators engage in looting (New York Magazine, 1 June 2020). The president called governors “weak” for allowing demonstrations in their states and instructed them to call in the National Guard to “dominate” and “cut through [protesters] like butter” (Vox, 2 June 2020). Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas, an advisor to the president, recommended that the administration “send in the troops” and give “no quarter for insurrectionists, anarchists, rioters, and looters” (New York Times, 3 June 2020, 23 June 2020).

Rhetoric soon translated to action: in early June, the government used National Guard troops, Secret Service agents, and US Park Police — among other federal agents — to violently disperse peaceful protests in Lafayette Square outside the White House to create a photo opportunity at St. John’s Church (Vox, 2 June 2020; New York Times, 10 June 2020).

By the end of June, President Donald Trump seized on the topic to issue an executive order authorizing federal agents to pursue demonstrators who pull down statues or damage federal property, spurring the creation of the Protecting American Communities Task Force (PACT) and the deployment of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents to protest sites across the US.

Prior to the deployment of PACT at the start of July, approximately 8% of demonstrations in Oregon were met with government intervention, and authorities infrequently used force against demonstrators. Since July, however, nearly 28% of demonstrations have been met with intervention and force by government personnel. In Portland specifically, under 24% of demonstrations were met with state force before July. Since July, this figure has risen to 40% of all demonstrations (see graph below)

Although federal authorities were purportedly deployed to keep the peace, the move appears to have re-escalated tensions. Prior to the deployment, over 83% of demonstrations in Oregon were non-violent. Post-deployment, the percentage of violent demonstrations has risen from under 17% to over 42% (see graph below), suggesting that the federal response has only aggravated unrest. In Portland, violent demonstrations rose from 53% to nearly 62% of all events after federal agents arrived on the scene.

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Whether they are affiliated with an organized group or not, there is also a growing presence of armed individuals at demonstrations, with many claiming they are standing by to ‘keep the peace’ if not to openly intimidate perceived ‘enemies.’ At least 50 such incidents have been reported around the country since 24 May. Reports that police not only tolerate the presence of certain armed individuals at demonstrations (Washington Post, 30 August 2020; Huffington Post, 28 August 2020), but in some cases actively encourage their involvement suggest this trend will continue, amplifying the risk of violence. On the night of 25 August in Kenosha, Wisconsin, for example, during protests against police brutality following the shooting of Jacob Blake, police allegedly told armed members of the Kenosha Guard over a loudspeaker, “We appreciate you guys. We really do,” and shared water with them (USA Today, 29 August 2020).

In addition to armed individuals standing by without directly engaging demonstrations, there has also been an increase in the number of counter-protests confronting opposing demonstrators.5 Between 24 May and 22 August, over 360 counter-protests were recorded around the country, accounting for nearly 5% of all demonstrations. Of these, 43 — nearly 12% — turned violent, with clashes between pro-police demonstrators and demonstrators associated with the BLM movement, for example. In July alone, ACLED records over 160 counter-protests, or more than 8% of all demonstrations. Of these, 18 turned violent. This is a significant increase relative to July 2019, when only 17 counter-protests were reported around the country, or approximately 1% of all demonstrations, and only one of these allegedly turned violent.

The rise in non-state intervention and violent counter-demonstrations is set against a growing pattern of non-violent hate incidents. As racial justice protests have spread across the country, so too have displays of racist symbols like nooses, believed to be warnings or acts of intimidation targeting activists and protesters associated with the BLM movement. In late June, for example, a stuffed animal monkey was found hanging from a tree in Santa Rosa, California (ABC, 29 June 2020). In mid-July, a couple in Saginaw, Michigan found a noose and a note saying “Accessory to be worn with your BLM T-shirt! Happy Protesting!” slipped through the window of their car (Michigan Live, 13 July 2020).

While these data present only a snapshot of demonstration activity and political violence in America, the trendlines are clear: demonstrations have erupted en masse around the country, and they are increasingly met with violence by state actors, non-state actors, and counter-demonstrators alike. With two months until the election, the US faces deep divisions over racial inequality, the role of the police, and economic hardship exacerbated by an ineffective pandemic response. The administration has taken multiple steps to inflame these tensions, from announcing further federal deployments in “Democrat-led cities” like Chicago and Albuquerque (AP, 22 July 2020) to threatening a postponement of the election altogether (BBC, 30 July 2020). In this hyper-polarized environment, state forces are taking a more heavy-handed approach to dissent, non-state actors are becoming more active and assertive, and counter-demonstrators are looking to resolve their political disputes in the street. Without significant mitigation efforts, these risks will continue to intensify in the lead-up to the vote, threatening to boil over in November if election results are delayed, inconclusive, or rejected as fraudulent.

[roman88]

1. Fringe groups trying to incite a civil war

And dragging the majority of the country in their bullshit. That's what's going on.

[qwlauren35]

2. I believe

that if the president was not encouraging them, we could quiet things down.

[RKP5637]

5. Quite true. Trump is an instigator and loves IMO inciting violence like he was doing a reality

TV show. I think he loves sitting back and watching on his TV what he has caused. The man is NOT mentally stable.

[LAS14]

3. k & r!

[Laelth]

4. k&r for the truth. n/t

-Laelth

[qwlauren35]

6. So much of this saddens me.

Only 7% of the protesting is violent. 10,000 protests in the US. And yet, because of the repeated media coverage of the violence, the BlackLivesMatter movement has lost national sympathy. All of that energy and power from June is gone. All of that drive for change. Gone. All of those allies. Gone.

I've seen pictures of the violence, and it is horrific. And yet, the efforts to quell it are in the wrong direction. The data shows that police and government presence makes it worse. Presence of counter-protesters makes it worse. The ability of community leaders to motivate the rioters to stop is gone.

[Blue Owl]

7. Fatfuck and his goons are framing the narrative and creating their own "optics"

[qwlauren35]

8. Evening kick.