What the numbers say about Trump's chances at reelection

[BlueWavePsych]

First, consider that the share of voters supporting third-party candidates is much smaller in 2020 than it was in 2016. In 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 2-to-1 lead over Trump among those who voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016. One survey shows that 47 percent of Stein and Johnson supporters will vote for Biden, while 20 percent plan to vote for Trump or support another third-party candidate in 2020. If that lead for Biden holds, Trump could lose in November.

A second troubling sign for Trump is that the president’s support among active-duty military personnel, a key group seen as essential to his reelection, is diminishing. A Military Times survey shows Biden leads Trump 41 percent to 37 percent among active-duty troops, with 49.9 percent holding unfavorable views of Trump. This is compared to a survey taken in October 2016, when Trump led Clinton by 20 points.

The third worrying sign for Trump is the significant demographic alterations that have taken place since 2016. Over the last four years, Trump has done little to expand his base that delivered him the Electoral College. The voters who constitute Trump’s base, white voters without college degrees, will constitute a smaller percentage of the electorate in 2020 than they did in 2016. A recent report by the Brookings Institution revealed that these voters declined from 45 percent in 2016 to 41 percent in 2020. In 2016, white voters without college degrees led white voters with college degrees and Latino voters by 9 points. In 2020, that lead has shrunk to 1 point, with Latino voters constituting 14 percent of the electorate, compared to 12 percent in 2016.

Most who voted for Trump and Clinton four years ago will remain with Trump and Biden this year, as 94 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Trump and 96 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Biden. This level of partisan commitment may be a given. However, Trump was elected in 2016 by only 77,774 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If just enough third-party voters vote for Biden in these three states and active-duty troops and officers express their dissatisfaction with Trump, then the president could lose reelection, especially since white voters without college degrees are representing less of a share of the electorate.

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/515268-what-the-numbers-say-about-trumps-chances-at-reelection

Compelling argument ... GOTV!