High turnout by Trump's base won't be enough to get him re-elected: analyst

[catbyte]

September 6, 2020

By Tom Boggioni

According to an analysis provided to the Washington Post, even if Donald Trump’s fanbase turns out in high numbers in November, that might not be enough for him to be re-elected.

Writing for the Post, Robert Griffin of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. claims the numbers don’t work out for the embattled president if he can’t expand his pool of potential voters.

Stating that the lead that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has over Trump has remained remarkably stable, Griffin wrote that those in the president’s camp who state turnout will be the key to his re-election are fooling themselves.

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“History tells us that it is unusual to see a substantial increase in turnout for just one specific group. Voters live in shared political environments that shape perceptions about an election’s importance. As such, it’s more common to see turnouts among different groups rise and fall together,” he explained. “Take the 2016 election. While the turnout rate of White voters without college degrees did go up by about three percentage points compared with 2012 — and this group disproportionately supported Trump — the increase was not far from the two-percentage-point rise among Hispanic, Asian and White college-educated voters.”

snip

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/high-turnout-by-trumps-base-wont-be-enough-to-get-him-re-elected-analyst/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/turnout-base-swing-voters-polling-trump/2020/09/03/2833ff94-ed59-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html

[beachbumbob]

1. the fact is, trump has shrunk his voting base down since 2016

2018 is proof of that

[malaise]

2. ByeDon

The end is nigh!

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Won't even be close. He's alienated a lot of his former voters, and he keeps screwing up, for and

no one can tell him a thing, he won't listen because he alone, knows it all. Screw him and I hope that he has his a&& handed to him.

[Andy823]

5. I agree

more and more information is going to come out about his "sick" behavior, and disgusting comments he has made, especially since he has been in office. It has started already, and while some diehard followers will never leave hime, many others will.

[BComplex]

6. I have no doubt the actual turn out will overwhelmingly vote against trump. However,

it doesn't really matter who votes in this country. It matters who counts the votes and takes charge to make sure all votes are tallied properly. That's my biggest concern this election. With the post office being tampered with so severely, and the thugs with guns already saying they have over 60,000 thugs (they call themselves militia) ready to show up at the polling places to intimidate voters, I'm very worried.

We need to turn out in numbers big enough that there's no way they can cheat enough to win.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Please no conspiracy theories..thugs with guns at polling places?

That’s called electioneering

[BComplex]

10. It's been reported on MSNBC and CNN. Cuomo also mentioned it in one of

his press conferences. He said they would best not take it upon themselves in New York.

Mostly they have said these guys are targeting swing states.

So if it's a conspiracy theory, it's not MY conspiracy theory.

[MyOwnPeace]

4. And don't forget

the ones that will still be swimming to shore in Texas!

[edhopper]

7. it never could

That is why they will suppress everyone's else's vote.

[Thekaspervote]

8. If you look at several EC scenarios Biden wins even if he underperforms

Take a look at this chart from Cook Political

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

[smirkymonkey]

11. K&R

[abqtommy]

12. tRUMP can't be reelected since he lost the vote in 2016. It's the ratfucking that tRUMP relied

on then and here in 2020.