BREAKING: Florida Secretary of State releases new Vote by mail numbers

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

[riversedge]

1. umm. I can see why Trump is furious about mail-in voting. too bad.

[LisaL]

3. Of course.

NT

[Iliyah]

2. Still no not trust in the republicans from Florida . . .

Georgia neither . .

[stillcool]

7. Pretty hard to win an election in either...

unless you're a Republican. Doesn't really matter how they steal it....it's like a foregone conclusion.

[Sancho]

4. The GOP cheats in Florida...

and they have for years:

-hanging chads
-hacked DREs
-hacked tabulators
-ballots found in the trash
-ballots sitting in mail sorting warehouses
-ballots disallowed for signature
-voters challenged at the polls for ID
-butterfly ballots
-simply don't count the ballots
-barriers to registration
-etc., etc. (every dirty trick in the book)

To turn Florida blue will take an overwhelming victory.

[helpisontheway]

8. Didn't Obama flip it blue two times?nt

[Sancho]

10. Yes..but the margin was so great the cheating was not easy.

Obama won by less than 1%. That was interesting because some down ballot issue and races were won by Democrats by 5% and 10%. No one really thinks that people would vote for a Democratic Senator and a Democratic amendment, and then turn around and vote for McCain or Romney. The actual number of votes for Obama was likely 6-7% more than Romney. The margin against McCain was likely greater.

There was a massive number of undervotes in both races, and all kinds of other indicators of manipulation.

The registrations in Florida have usually favored the Democrats. The GOP cheats enough to win close elections.

According to exit polling, Obama won 95% of the African-American vote (13% of voters), 60% of Latino voters (up 3 points from 2008 and 17% of all voters), and 50% among Independents (who accounted for 33% of all voters). Mitt Romney won white voters by 24 percent. In addition, both Democratic and Republican strategists agreed that the President's ground game and early voting leads played a huge role in such a tight race. Despite laws that curbed early voting, more than 4 million Floridians cast a ballot before Election Day (almost 50% of all voters), and reports showed that Obama was leading by about 104,000 among those voters.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Obama won nationally by 3.9% in 2012 and you think he won Florida by 6-7%?

The cynicism here is beyond absurd. Florida is easily the most consistent swing state in the nation. It never varies much and always votes a few points right of the nation. The ideological numbers always reveal that it is slightly red of the nation.

Florida midterms have an older whiter more conservative electorate. That's the problem area and lends to the overblown cynicism. It could have been solved in 2018 if we had simply nominated the unblemished moderate in Gwen Graham instead of the Sanders wing stupidly not understanding the ideological variance of Florida midterms and shoving Andrew Gillum to a level he did not belong.

[Sancho]

23. I disagree...and it would take a lot of work to demonstrate why...

...but Obama likely also won nationally by more than 3.9%.

A variety of analyses (some are sophisticated), indicate systematic "cheating" over the last 20 years or so. I'm one of the "older white" people you speak of...and many, many "older white folks" were the ones who voted for Claude Pepper and want to protect SS and medicare. Over a third of citizens in Florida were born in another country.

Young people (I'm a career educator) are consistently Democratic. The loud claims from the RW tax dodgers and money launderers take make noise, but a true slice of Florida would rarely have a GOP winner except in gerrymandered districts and the East Alabama handle.

Based on voter correlates (like amendments and down ballot votes), and registrations (where Democrats had the advantage), and exit polls (no contest), and weird patterns (undervotes, discounted ballots, etc.)...a solid case can be made that the current Governor lost, and Hillary won Florida. Gore won Florida too, if they had actually counted the votes.

Even though Gillum may not have been the best candidate, he still was the winner - if you simply count the votes quarantined in the warehouse do to a "pipe bomb scare"...and the same with Nelson.

[dsc]

24. I am not sure what state wide candidates were winning in FL in 2008 and 2012

and the issues could be a case of they agree with us on that issue but not on other things.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Several states have voted for Medicaid expansion and for Republican governors who oppose it.

[dsc]

26. well that isn't Florida. But more to the point politicians were being mentioned

I think Democrats haven't won many state wide races down there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Voters have no problem voting for liberal referendums and conservative politicians.

Voters in red states voting for restoration of voting rights for non-violent felons and minimum wage increases are just two examples.

More to the point it's much harder to outright steal an election than people think.

[Bleacher Creature]

5. Thanks, Trump!!! NT

[FM123]

6. I hope they play trump's video on a loop 24/7

the one where he proclaims that In Florida the election system is Safe and Secure, Tried and True. He was counting on his buddies Sec of State Laurel Lee and Gov DeSatan to jiggle a few wires for him (they might still try) but now it's on record that he has to accept FL's ass beating of him in November when it happens....

[Thekaspervote]

9. It would be great if we take FL, not counting on it. The Dems still have many paths to 270

Even if we don’t take FL...The pukes don’t!!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

11. Obama won Florida - twice.

Didn't he?

[Blue_true]

13. Yes. And President Clinton won it once.

In fact, in the last seven presidential elections, Democrats have won Florida three times, republicans have won it four times, including the 2000 outcome.

[Blue_true]

12. In 2018, tens of thousands of late mailed votes were invalidated by the Magabomber.

People need to properly turn their ballots around as soon as they receive them. And if they don’t see their ballot recurved at their county registrar, prepare to vote with a provisional ballot.

[SheltieLover]

14. Please vote in person, if possible

Especially on swing states!

[SheltieLover]

15. Dog whistle for russian help?

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. IIRC, FL is one of the states that counts mail in ballots before Election Day

So results can be released quickly after polls close. While there could still be mail in ballots to be counted on election night, the likelihood of a “red mirage” in FL is lower than other states. If Biden has a strong lead in FL election night, that could be the tipping point for the whole election.

[OnDoutside]

17. That's a good approach and probably done in the expectation that Republicans would normally

vote by mail in greater numbers.

[lpbk2713]

18. Trump, you are a loser.

And if you need proof, here it is.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

19. Didn't Obama flip it blue two times?

Yes. But note that it was Biden who did most of the campaigning in Florida in both 2008 and 2012. So he has experience on how to win the state.

[uponit7771]

20. Is this registration margin? Cause the comment says "vote margin" while the column title says ...

... "enrollment margin"

Thx in advance, just wondering how could this be true ... that's a lot

[Wounded Bear]

21. Pretty sure it means mail-in ballots requested...nt