Experts project autumn surge in coronavirus cases, with a peak after Election Day

[Nevilledog]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-fall-projections-second-wave/2020/09/04/6edb3392-ed61-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html

Infectious-disease experts are warning of a potential cold-weather surge of coronavirus cases — a long-feared “second wave” of infections and deaths, possibly at a catastrophic scale. It could begin well before Election Day, Nov. 3, although researchers assume the crest would come weeks later, closer to when fall gives way to winter.

An autumn surge in covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, would not be an October surprise: It has been hypothesized since early in the pandemic because of the patterns of other respiratory viruses.

“My feeling is that there is a wave coming, and it’s not so much whether it’s coming but how big is it going to be,” said Eili Klein, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

The pandemic is already a dominant campaign issue, and it’s not clear that even a spike in deaths would apply much torque to the presidential race. Outbreaks in some states could also bring pressure further down the ballot and conceivably affect turnout if there is so much community spread that voters who planned to cast ballots in person feel unsafe going to the polls.

*snip*

[LisaL]

1. That's why voting by mail is so important.

Either that or early vote. Who knows what will be happening on election day?

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Agreed. I never understood this rush to push people to not vote by mail.

It seems to play right into Trump's hands because who the hell knows what things will look like come Nov. 3rd.

What we should be doing is educating voters who have the option to vote early/by mail and make sure they get to doing it ASAP.

Vote early.

[NickB79]

2. Lots of factors lining up

Schools opening.
Outdoor patios closing as temps fall.
More people staying indoors.
Voting.
Labor Day get togethers and a general fatigue over social distancing.

It's gonna be worse than the summer surge. 100,000 cases per day seems likely.