I read recently that some medical people have predicted 400,000 deaths

[MineralMan]

by the end of the year from COVID-19. Months ago, I wrote here on DU that as many as 3 million deaths might occur due to this virus in the United States when all was said and done. Roughly 1% of the population. For that, I was roundly slammed.

I repeat that now. I can still see that number of deaths occurring before the disease actually disappears. A vaccine might slow down the pace of COVID deaths, but it will not eliminate the count increasing. Many people are claiming that they will not take the vaccine, even people I consider to be more or less sensible about most things.

The pandemic will continue for quite some time. It will be measured in years, really, I believe. It's a novel virus. Most people have no immune reaction to it quickly enough to stop the disease from doing its damage. Sadly, once an effective vaccine is available, many people will see that as the end of the pandemic. That will not be the case.

The flu vaccine exists. Despite that, tens of thousands of Americans die each year from the flu. Our current vaccines are quite strain-specific, and we don't always predict which strain will be dominant. Many people, including otherwise sensible DUers refuse to be vaccinated, for one reason or another.

I expect the COVID-19 virus to continue to circulate in the USA and worldwide for 5 to 10 years, and cause infections virtually everywhere. People will continue to die. It is far from stupid to predict that 1% of the population could die from it, in the end.

[Laelth]

1. I regret that I must agree.

There’s no good reason to believe that COVID-19 is just going to magically disappear. Not that I can see, in any event. This is a BAD bug.

-Laelth

[MineralMan]

4. Yes, a "bad bug" indeed.

[dewsgirl]

2. I remember you were far more accurate than those arguing against

you. Of course the numbers will just continue to climb, when the administration does the exact opposite of what is recommended.

[Botany]

3. FYI / The US coronavirus death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next four months

We have no cure and we have no vaccine.


The US coronavirus death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next four months
(BTW American war dead in WW II was 406,000)

Source: CNN

(CNN)A new model often cited by top health officials raised its projections Friday, predicting over 410,000 coronavirus deaths nationwide by January 1.

That would mean an additional 224,000 Americans lost in the next four months -- more than double the 186,000 deaths reported by Johns Hopkins University.

The model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation points to declining mask use in some regions from a peak in usage in early August. The scenarios in the model suggest 122,000 of those lives could be saved with near-universal mask use. It also warns the death toll could be much higher -- over 620,000 -- if all restrictions are eased.

"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000,"

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

[MineralMan]

8. Very sobering predictions.

It's not going to stop on January 1, either. The pace is accelerating on a national basis at this time.

Universal vaccination with an effective, safe vaccine is our best hope. My worry is that the rush to approve the first possible vaccine could stifle continued research to find the most effective vaccine possible. Trump wants a vaccine as an October Surprise. He wants that so badly that he will probably coerce the FDA into approving a vaccine that has not been adequately tested, rather than wait to see which vaccine has the most efficacy.

Since I'm an old man of 75, with assorted conditions that would probably increase my chance of dying, I will line up for whatever vaccine is available, in the hope that it will offer me some protection. That's why I get a flu shot every year, even knowing that it might not be effective against whatever strain of virus is most prevalent.

[obamanut2012]

5. I hate that I have to agree that you are right

I hate agreeing, because that means so many people will needlessly die.

[Beringia]

6. Why 10 years, why not forever like the flu?

[MineralMan]

9. Really, there is no real reason why not.

There will be mutations of the COVID virus, however. It's entirely possible that a predominant mutation will cause it to become less deadly or less easily spread. Of course, there is also a possibility that a mutation could make it even more virulent.

Crapshoot.

[Pacifist Patriot]

13. Very early on in the pandemic (February/March time frame)..

I saw an article where an epidemiologist/virologist predicted the end of Cold and Flu Season as we know it. Because in a few years it will most likely be Cold, Flu, and Covid Season. I see no reason at this point why it won't become just that.

Of course people can catch colds and flus year round just like Covid. "Season" simply refers to when more people tend to congregate indoors than out.

I think we're looking at a forever virus myself.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

7. I saw that the IMHE model is projecting...

... that many deaths by that date, but they've lately been overestimating after badly underestimating deaths months ago.

This model (also used by the CDC like the IMHE model) has made better predictions so far:
https://covid19-projections.com/

Even if it's around 300,000 instead, it's insanely ridiculous and reflects the lack of leadership and respect for science by Trump and the GOP.

Side-note:
Everyone, please make sure that you have good levels of Vitamin D in your systems. (Darker-skinned and obese people are more likely to be deficient, unless regularly exposed to sunlight.)

[lagomorph777]

10. I'm confident we're well past 400k already.

And yes, in the years that will pass before we get this down to a manageable level, 3M will die.

[MineralMan]

12. You're probably right, but the only numbers we can really use

are the officially reported ones. Either way, it is a shockingly high number. That we are not shocked is very surprising to me.

[Marthe48]

11. My friend and I were talking about death toll last night

My great-nephew is taking classes at home, but entered sports. He was exposed to a covid positive person, and is now isolated for 2 weeks. The local radio station jubilantly announced last week that they would air local h.s. football games. I saw a headline that 30% of college student athletes, even if they are asymptomatic, have myocarditis. My grand kids started school today, going to the building. It is a small school population, in an older elementary building. They were masked in their first day photo, and I hope they are responsible about being careful all day. I don't think that any group gathering is a good idea, and I'm scared to death for anyone who is part of the crowd. Locally, the only thing that is cheering is that the numbers of confirmed cases is low, but how many people have actually gottten tested?

My friend and I discussed the things we've heard, and agreed that there will be more deaths, that a safe vaccine isn't gong to be a magic bullet, and Covid-19 is here to stay. I track the mortality rate every day on Worldometer, and post the update for Ohio every day on facebook. I read here on DU about exponentiation, but I don't need to do the math to see the numbers are going up with the grim inevitability of death. It is hard to stay upbeat.

I think it was different for people who lived through the Spanish Flu epidemic. I don't think researchers even had an inkling of the death rate for that pandemic until the 1980s. We get to see every day how diminished we become.

[MineralMan]

14. I suspect that, within a month, all of the schools will be shut down.

Just looking at what is happening at colleges already demonstrates that the school environment is not a safe one.

Here in the Twin Cities of MN, our public schools are just opening today. Most are doing some sort of hybrid opening, typically with kids going to school in groups on alternate days. I don't think that is going to work.

In two weeks, we're going to begin seeing the results of school reopenings. If it goes like it has at colleges, it's going to be ugly.

[Botany]

16. I'm a big OSU football fan but in Columbus they are screaming for football this fall

It is madness.

[Marthe48]

18. They should not have opened

I know many families are using virtual public school that is being offered. It is hard on families who have both parents working, but last spring, the families made it work. The schools and teachers made it work. On the fly. And they had time to make virtual education better. The rush to go back to school is insane. Stats since Covid-19 hit show that kids and infants do get it, and it can harm or kill young people right along with old people.

My grand kids are old enough to be alone for short periods of time. I was banned from being in the house with them, or even petting my grand dog for several months last spring. Their Dad got time off from work, and their Mom changed her schedule so she was home more, so there were only a few days the kids didn't have an adult with them. On a couple of those days, I went over and stayed outside, handy in case they needed me.

Now, I stay in one part of the house and if I go into the other rooms, I mask and sanitize when I get back to the safer room. And I can pet the dog, if I wash my hands after. lol The kids have proven that they are okay on their own, and I am proud of them for their maturity.

[MineralMan]

20. I agree that they should not have opened.

Soon enough, we'll find out, and we will all be disappointed and concerned.

[Alacritous Crier]

15. You are spot on.

This pandemic will be going on for years and the impact on lives will be much worse than it could have been if not for Trump. I was saying 300K by election day and I still think that's possible but concede that it may be closer to 270K now.

[PCIntern]

17. Exactly correct.

It is common sense, which is in short supply these days...

[MineralMan]

22. I'm afraid so.

The denialism of Trump and his supporters is not helping one bit, either.

[hunter]

19. Many people who have been infected by this virus are having a rough time.

It can cause long lasting damage.

Coronavirus: Why won't my Covid-19 symptoms go away?

Elly, 37, was training for the London Marathon when she says she started to develop Covid-19 symptoms in March and, almost six months later, she believes she's still suffering from them.

Similarly Meredith, 22, who is a keen cyclist, first noticed her symptoms in April and doesn't think she has fully recovered.

The Royal College of GPs says there needs to be a national network of post-Covid clinics to help those like Elly and Meredith.

NHS England said that they were "rapidly expanding new and strengthened rehab centres".

--video--

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-54061930

People who have jobs that involve a lot of physical labor may not be able to return to work even after the majority of their symptoms have cleared.

Farmworkers, warehouse workers, hotel housekeepers, etc., are going to find themselves unable to keep up with the physical demands of their jobs.

One of my in-laws was hit hard by this virus, nine days in the hospital, and more than a month later hasn't fully recovered.

This is not the flu.

[MineralMan]

21. It never was "just the flu."

Bad news, this virus.

[Wounded Bear]

23. You may be right...

With the election of Joe Biden and a return to a more rational approach, we can at least hope to slow down the spread starting next Feb/Mar. There will be some hope, also, of some mitigating treatments by then.

Until we get to a point where we are testing 1% of the population every week, we won't really know the true spread of the disease.

The medical profession knows how to slow it down, it's been disaster politics that have boosted the US infection/mortality rate.

The first million will happen by next Jun or so. Hopefully we can bring it down to where the next 2-3 million deaths are spread out over the next 10 years, on a declining scale.

[DrToast]

24. Boomark this post

400,000 deaths by the end of the year is ridiculous and so is 3 million dead Americans.

[MineralMan]

25. Be my guest.

[mitch96]

26. I think the only thing we can relate this virus is the pandemic of 1918.. What happened then?

We have a lot more going for us now as opposed to back then...
What amazes me is both of my parents and their families made it thru unscathed... Both are gone now and I would have loved to ask them about that time..
m

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/06/family-letters-1918-flu-coronavirus-pandemic/

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/01/849246712/letters-from-the-1918-pandemic

[llashram]

27. with 250,000 new cases

directly related to last months Sturgis rally, I'd say that 400,000 is a distinct possibility. The 200,000 is from a stidy in Mother Jones. It's here at DU in a post somewhere.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

28. You are absolutely right, especially the part where this

pandemic is going to last years.

Comparisons to the 1918 flu pandemic aren't really valid, not just because this isn't an influenza. Back then, as terrible as that pandemic was, a significant percentage of people already had at least some immunity. Especially older people who'd been through a similar flu outbreak a half century earlier. Also, for decades now people have been predicting another devastating flu outbreak, mainly because influenza is always out there, always mutating.

For what it's worth, there was essentially no flu season in the southern hemisphere this year, mainly because travel to and from China, who so generously gives new influenza strains every year to the rest of the world, wasn't happening. So chances are that predictions of a bad flu season this year simply won't be accurate. However, I could be wrong there.

Earlier this year, in June, I read Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs by Michael T. Osterholm and Mark Olshaker. Chapter by chapter it looks at various diseases like Ebola, toxic shock syndrome, Zika, and of course influenza. In fact, the chapter on influenza, which also outlines what could be a pandemic like the one in 1918, is eerily predictive of the Covid-19 outbreak. Different disease, that's all. This book came out in 2017, so it is up to date other than obviously they had no way of knowing what would actually happen this year.

I am hopeful that we will get a vaccine eventually. Hopeful, not certain. Until then, as you've said, the virus will continue to circulate and cause infection and death. If the death rate holds steady at 1%, that's potentially some 70 million deaths world wide. If no really effective and long-lasting vaccine can be developed, all bets are off.