Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

[ancianita]

Yet another count of the fallout.

According to a new study, which tracked anonymized cellphone data from the rally, over 250,000 coronavirus cases have now been tied to the 10-day event, one of the largest to be held since the start of the pandemic. It drew motorcycle enthusiasts from around the country, many of whom were seen without face coverings inside crowded bars, restaurants, and other indoor establishments.

The explosion in cases, the study from the Germany-based IZA Institute of Labor Economics finds, is expected to reach $12 billion in public health costs.

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/09/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-is-now-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases/

[llashram]

1. duh

[jimfields33]

27. That's pretty incredible since only 400,000 attended

That is a 55 percent positive rate (maths not my subject so I could be off I suppose). Still a huge amount of positives.

[CaptYossarian]

33. They're overachievers.

[jimfields33]

35. Lol. So true!

[Glaisne]

71. They're superspreaders!

Woohoo!

[CaptYossarian]

76. I'm picturing a hooker wearing a cape.

[dchill]

97. Super-spreaders.

[KS Toronado]

34. You are close, 62 1/2%

[jimfields33]

37. Cool. Thanks.

[brooklynite]

36. You're assuming wrong...

The premise isn’t that 250,000 attendees got infected; it’s that those who DID get infected spread the disaster (potentially through multiple generations) other populations upon their return.

[jimfields33]

39. Yieks. That is even worse because each person could give it to multiple people.

[3Hotdogs]

53. Only if they're not washed in the blood of Christ.

[backroadblast]

78. that reminds me.....blood of the lamb.

music video by Billy Bragg & Wilco "blood of the lamb"
i know its really not related, but i thought it's a good performance of a Woody Guthrie song
i thought to share.

[Delphinus]

90. Welcome to DU!

Had never heard this song.

[mountain grammy]

70. Thank you

Covid has an 'R0' rating of 2.2 , meaning, without precautions, 1 infected person will spread it to 2+ and those two will spread to 4+, etc, etc, etc.

More recently the R0 rating for covid has more than doubled..

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

[PaulRevere08]

42. I wonder if that refers to additional spread to the community.

Like the Biogen super-spreader event. Started with one guy infecting 90 who then infected up to tens of thousands. Right now 40% of Boston cases as well as 3% across the US and 1.6% worldwide can be traced to that one event.

[jimfields33]

43. I believe so. Brooklynite explained it pretty well to me.

I didn’t see that at first. Bottom line is, it’s a mess.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

46. I had to google that. Wow.

[RGTIndy]

45. If Billy Bob went home to Nebraska with Covid

and gave it to Cleetus and Jethro, that's 3 cases "linked" to the rally

[William Seger]

58. And in 4 weeks, Cleetus and Jethro had time to give it to 2 more each

... and then those 4 could have given it to 2 more each, so it's more like 14 cases and counting linked to Billy Bob.

[ancianita]

64. ...

a real cracker barrel of covid!

[NJCher]

93. those aren't very good redneck Nebraska names

Nebraska isn't the South, you know.

Try: Justin, Ryan, Blake, Riley, Zach
Tami, Monique, Melody, Brandi

[RGTIndy]

96. Spoiler Alert! Billy Bob isn't a real person

So, Billy Bob went home to TENNESSEE... Happy now?

[NJCher]

98. yeah, thanks

but just so you don't create a mistaken impression, the bikers fanned out over the entire U.S.

[Mariana]

62. It's not just those who attended who've been affected.

After they left, the ones who were infected spread it to other people, some of whom spread it to still other people, etc. They're all included in the 250,000.

[Fiendish Thingy]

72. Only 250k attended this year - you can't calculate positive rates, it's a superspreader event

COVID has a contagion rate of about 2.5, for every person who was positive at Sturgis, they infected 2-3 others, either at the event, or after they returned home. I think that’s what they mean by 250k infections “linked” to the event by cell phone contact tracing.

[Wicked Blue]

2. Wow. Mega-Covidiocy nt

[GusBob]

3. The first reports here on DU were maybe 100 people

very many " is that all?" replies

[dawg day]

11. That's what I thought-- just a few hundred.

But probably when you get tested, your address isn't identified as "My Harley, Sturgis, SD".

I just hope they didn't get all the workers in the town sick.

[GusBob]

16. To be fair

In one of the threads, a fellow DUer whom seems to be a number cruncher/stats/analytics guy predicted this

[marlakay]

18. Goes by where you live the case counts

And in the beginning SD was low, but people came from all over.

So for instance if I go on vacation if I catch covid it will count in my county not where I caught it.

[Montelimar]

4. Why are they all white?

[brush]

26. That's how they roll, all white and passing covid around amonst themselves.

Who with good sense goes to a huge rally of hundreds of thousands during a pandemic and drinking in bars, restaurants and other indoor venues with no masks or social distancing for days and days? No one but covidiots.

And then they leave and spread it all over the country.

[paleotn]

63. In the venn diagram....

of racist thug and Sturgis rally, there's a tremendous amount of overlap. Not superimposed circles like say racist thug and nazi, but a whole lot of overlap nonetheless. I'd say it's identical to the diagram of racist thug and trumper.

[Botany]

5. Go Figure

[Delphinus]

91. Well,

that was "enlightening".

[lunatica]

94. Thanks!

Interesting anthropological filming of Americana ritualized consumerism causing the super spread of deadly Coronavirus. It looks just like any other tourist hot spot, like Times Square in NY, or Fisherman’s Wharf in SF, except for the display of motorcycles.

[Initech]

6. I'm shocked, shocked! Well not that shocked.

[CountAllVotes]

7. K&R!

& recommend!!

[Hoyt]

8. Good to know. Earlier reports seemed very low. Even if this number is high, it's still stunning.

[ancianita]

10. Tracing's going on across states, too, but that's going to take a LOT longer.

I know because I tried to get a phone map of those going out to which states, but there are only phone maps of those going in so far.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. Welp, my OLD LADY got that shit from there.

That and a skull tattoo.



Kidding! I just wanted to use "old lady" for the first time in my life, like how so many bikers refer to their wives and girlfriends seemingly no matter their age.

[gibraltar72]

12. Actually that in biker talk is a term of endearment.

if she ain't your old lady she's ok for pulling the train. Kind of an exclusivity thing.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. I know, but it still makes me chuckle.

[Aristus]

13. All we need now is Condi Rice going out there and saying "No one could have imagined..."

[3Hotdogs]

54. Is Susan concerned about the mainiacs who went to S.D. and returned to Maine?

[Karma13612]

14. There ya go! Not surprised one iota. N/t

[brush]

30. We didn't used to have so many stupid Americans.

What the fuck happened to common sense? Ya don't go to a rally of hundreds of thousands drinking in bars and indoor venues with no masks or social distancing during a pandemic.

People are losing their effin' minds. trump's America.

[groundloop]

52. It's a total lack of leadership form the top down

If this had happened 4 years earlier we'd have seen President Obama on the news every night, right from the start, reminding us how important it is to follow guidelines set out by health experts etc. He'd have been brow-beating governors who failed to comply, and we'd have had a playbook to follow right from the start (don't forget that tRump killed the national pandemic taskforce which actually had plans drawn up for a coronavirus pandemic).

Instead, we have this fucking moron who's more worried about what this will do to his reputation. At the start of it, when things could have been made drastically better, he claims it's nothing to worry about and that the virus will magically go away. Also, we have idiots in several states like South Dakota's Kristi Noem and Georgia's Brian Kemp, who kiss tRump's ass and refuse to acknowledge that we have a problem.

[3Hotdogs]

59. Nah, 'cause everyone knows Obama is not a true 'merican so nobody gotta listen to him.

[brush]

60. Agreed. Obama had the playbook, also scientists/medical people...

on the ground in China to track and warn of new viruses while working with their scientists there.

trump pulled them out too and now continually blames China for not warning us. Idiot is as idiot does.

[NJCher]

95. yeah, but hate radio

primed that audience for trump.

[Wednesdays]

65. *cough* Fox News. *cough*

With an assist by Rush Limpballs.

[IronLionZion]

68. But it's a dry *cough*

[gibraltar72]

15. Not shocked that it is big.

However I'd like to see more reporting to back those numbers. I did read that bikers went back to 61% of the counties in America.

[Horse with no Name]

19. If only someone could have predicted that

Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2020, 03:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Using science or something ....

[Sneederbunk]

20. The Sturgis Effect (Morons on two wheels)

[Hekate]

21. Good lord

[ancianita]

24. Right, BUT

the political upside is that it's an impressive number for the debates.

[empedocles]

22. Wonder if the Sturgis crowd, Covid attitude, changed much?

[still_one]

23. "anonymized cellphone data"? I would see that correlated with contact tracing

[ancianita]

25. Yes.

[still_one]

28. This is an estimate from what I understand, from a group of economists drawing on this

"cell phone data" to track movements and Covid-19 case data estimates that the Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August be responsible for, and as far as I am aware it hasn't been corroborated by any epidemiologists or officials

[ancianita]

31. The most conservative, safe bet lies with the headline word 'linked,' since there were that

many visitors to Sturgis this year.

And why is anonymized data only connected to economists? Anybody can buy such data if the price is right.

The whole public health world and WHO do this all the time.

[still_one]

48. The only way to get an estimate is if someone get the SARS co V2 test, tests positive.

and then asked where they have been

Just assuming the increase in numbers in Iowa, South Dakota, etc are do to the Sturgis rally is very flawed

[ancianita]

61. That's the situation everywhere.

While you're technically right, so far, about this context, they can take their 15 minutes of infamy with all the rest of the political anti-maskers and fake apex predators who think their very wills can beat a virus with no known cure.

You do understand that numbers are shit everywhere, right? The only honest states are the ones trying to improve their economies by getting control of COVID first, right? The rest fudge numbers, per red governors' orders, and are resisted by countless on-the-ground medical professionals from hospital personnel to county officials whose numbers are suppressed, and have told the country so.

When you understand that, then you know where these bikers tend to come from, and why the true numbers won't ever come to light. Tracing can't be done until everyone is tested. Not even 1/3 of this country's been tested.

When ignorance is the political standard, there will never be truth in data because truth is subversive to fascist politics. Brazen projection fakery is the 5th Avenue Gang's standard.

[NurseJackie]

29. Were they stupid? Ignorant? Or Republicans?

[tavernier]

32. Covid is deadlier to the obese.

I would say at least 75 % of these ppl qualified. I’m not fat shaming, these are just the plain statistical facts. My family tends to obesity as well, but we are maintaining the rules of masking and social distancing because of that. Also eating better and exercising more since Covid started, as a precautionary regimen.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

44. Obesity is linked to Vitamin D deficiency too.

https://www.livescience.com/26961-obesity-causes-vitamin-d-deficiency.html

Darker-skin is also associated with lower Vitamin D levels, at least among people not getting regular sunlight exposure. (It helps explain how lighter skin was naturally selected after humans left Africa for less sunny and colder areas, unless their diet was rich in Vitamin D from sources like sea-fish.)

I'm not suggesting that's the only reason for higher Covid-19 death rates among them, but it's probably a factor.

[tavernier]

55. I live in the tropics and also take a D supplement (2,000 daily)

because even though I’m outdoors a lot, we geriatric folk don’t absorb it as well.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

69. Smart!

I just ordered some Vitamin D supplements, with some Vitamin K2 added to help direct the calcium to my bones.

A supercomputer recently helped researchers to hypothesize that Covid-19 can cause a "bradykinin storm", and Vitamin D would help to mitigate it!

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

Even if that hypothesis is wrong, despite matching many of the known Covid-19 symptoms, the growing evidence that Vitamin D is helpful to avoid the worst Covid-19 problems can't be ignored anymore.

[ancianita]

77. Please make sure you get D3 -- that's the best D (not the plain D) that helps absorb calcium, too.

D3 -- 5,000 I.C.U.'s daily -- really is a crucial vitamin along with C and the B's.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

80. Yep, that's what I ordered.

The same that's produced from sunlight exposure.

I'm super-white, but I'm not taking any chances. And I'll be indoors more often with cooler temps.

[Paladin]

38. Sick, smelly, selfish bastards on bikes. (nt)

[ancianita]

40. Now now, you know COVID, she doesn't discriminate.

[Mr. Ected]

41. Time to remake a classic, call it COVIDiocracy

It could be about how these people led to the eventual extinction of our species.

[Initech]

47. I can't wait to have this guy as my doctor!

[BeckyDem]

49. ALL unnecessary.

[KS Toronado]

50. When rumpie had his Tulsa rally I started keeping track of daily covid19 numbers from

KS and OKLA via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Day of his rally OKLA had 3,500 fewer cases than KS. Two weeks after rally, numbers
started going up and never slowed down. OKLA now has 17,600 more cases than KS.
So a total spread of 21,100 additional people getting the virus from a crowd of
7,000 shouting law & order, lock her up, etc. They went home and spread it.

[ashredux]

51. Wow!! It truly was a super spreader event

[roamer65]

56. Start tracking down attendees and suing them to recoup the health care costs.

When they start losing assets they will get it.

[muntrv]

57. Darwin likes this.

[IronLionZion]

66. 365,979 people attended Sturgis this year

https://www.rideapart.com/articles/439496/sturgis-2020-attendance-crime-numbers/#:~:text=From%20August%207%20through%2014,DOT%20told%20Rapid%20City%20Journal.

So it's only about a 68% infection rate plus whoever else they infected along the way home.

South Dakota is a proud "pro life" state. They are so pro-life and pro-freedom they didn't allow Native American reservations to block traffic going through their lands.

While all sorts of people may be bikers. The types who went to Sturgis 2020 are probably not ridin with Biden. So we may see fewer GOP voters after this.

[dameatball]

67. Lived 45 minutes from Daytona for 26 years and never went to bike week, so I guess Sturgis

never has been on my bucket list either. I always figured "maybe next year."

[cyndensco]

73. Next up: The assholes listening to the asshole-in-chief's speech at the convention.

[ProfessorGAC]

74. Have An Issue With This Estimate

Given that number is 1/26th of the total cases, it would be reasonable to see an obvious change in slope of the daily case curve. There isn't any strong case that the slope would have flattened everywhere else at the exact same time.
The event ended on August 16, so some time a few days before that until now, the slope should have gotten steeper.
I don't see that. In fact, the slope for the week or so prior looks a pinch steeper.
The graph is the first on under the state & territory table. You can touch the curve line to find each date.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[ancianita]

81. I see. But if you're looking at the whole country... I just don't get why you'd use that scale.

The zip code approach used by Cuomo and NY, seems to provide good COVID accounting, and of attending to hotspots, too.

Anyway, the anonymizer approach and its map shows the states bikers came from, so as COVID counting goes, any data links and COVID numbers changes belong to all those states' graphs. So far, there's no anonymized map of exits after the event. Perhaps that will come out later.

[ProfessorGAC]

84. Still Skeptical

I get what you're saying, I just don't agree.
250,000 new cases in 3 weeks should dramatically affect the daily case load.
Look at the second graph in my link. The 7 day moving average line has actually fallen since Sturgis.
If the impact is this large, one should not need to take a granular view of the data.
The broad data should show an extra nearly 4% of total cases in 22 days. It doesn't.
There are times when a granular view can confuse the issue. When the granular data doesn't square with the trends in the larger dataset, there's something wrong somewhere.
The granular data is useful for isolating hotspots, but it should still influence the whole.
If you look at both charts for the 2 or 3 weeks prior to Sturgis, the trend line is essentially the same, before & since.
That makes no sense.

[ancianita]

85. Sounds logical.

I think more data will come out later. It's not been three weeks since rally's end, and often, death counts go up a month or more after symptoms, right?

[ProfessorGAC]

87. Yeah!

I didn't look at deaths at all. Probably too soon, and this study didn't give specifics, so no comparison to make.
But, we'll see.
I looked up the rally dates. Said August 6 to 17. So, we're a bit over 3 weeks now, but this study wasn't completed at noon today! So, probably covers a bit under three.

[DSandra]

75. Proof that white Republicans are the worst Americans

They do whatever they want and pass the costs onto the rest of society.

[LudwigPastorius]

79. USA! USA!

[Politicub]

82. Holy &$)(;:/$

So many cases and deaths just so a bunch of bikers could listen to smash mouth.

[ancianita]

83. Right?

Smash Mouth? Kinda bubblegum for bikers, yah? Maybe I completely misunderstand the hearts of bikers.

I heard ZZ Top played, too. Or maybe was that last year.

[Liberal In Texas]

86. I wonder how many dead that actually were in Sturgis.

I get that those who got infected returned home to spread it to friends and family, but actual attendees it would be interesting to know.

[ancianita]

88. We'll find out later. COVID takes its toll about a month after symptoms show, around five

days past the rally.

[progressoid]

89. Can't be true. That's leftist liberal fake newz.

[Fritz Walter]

92. Soon: Used Harleys for sale!

Someone on one of my social-media channels speculated about this while the Sturgis SuperSpreader was underway. S/he was looking to pick up a used hog at an estate sale.

Now, I'm wondering which offspring of the Cowardly Lyin' Traitor will pounce on this business opportunity. Of course, they'd have to keep it hidden from the OLD man, since he called for a boycott two years ago. But then, if any of his spawn had two neurons to rub together, they could say that the boycott only applies to new bikes.

[lpbk2713]

99. Stupid on two wheels.

Vroom - vroom - vroom ... cough - cough.