Florida: A+ rated Marist poll

[Zeus69]

Fla.
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2020
766 LV
Marist College
Biden-48%
Trump-48%

Fla.
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2020
1,047 RV
Marist College
Biden-47%
Trump-48%

F’ing Florida always keeping things “interesting”

[liskddksil]

1. Still seeing way to much cockiness and complacency here. There is no swing-state that is

solidly in our column. We better work like we are 10 points down every moment until Joe and Kamela have their hands on the bible.

[still_one]

2. I don't think anyone here is complacent. They are more than aware the electoral college will

determine the election, not the popular vote

The state that worries me the most is Pennsylvania

[jorgevlorgan]

5. I still see outrage whem folks point out that Trump has a very good chance of winning

And may very well win reelection. I take that as complacency.

[still_one]

11. I take that as they are worried that the election is very close, and are concerned if the

message isn't positive, it will demoralize people instead of motivating people to vote

I think that is what is happening

[jorgevlorgan]

15. Hope you are right

I just remember doing fundraising calls for Clinton and getting people who would tell me "Trump isn't going to win. You don't need my money" and hang up on me. I'm terrrified there are still people like that...

[still_one]

18. I don't think this is like 2016, and most people know the very real threat we are under

[kcr]

31. I take it as rightfully reacting to vote-supressing doom and gloom.

[LanternWaste]

54. Your inference then, is both incomplete and without substance.

Then again, both complacency and excitement exist on a continuum, we are not provided with an objective measure or standard on where on that continuum DU as a whole should be located.

Meaning, it's simply little more than a bumper sticker to allege as such, and should be given all the credibility due any given bumper sticker.

[Celerity]

25. That poster is talking about swing states, not national polls, so your reply

is a bit of a non sequitur as regards them.

I do agree about PA, and would add FL, WI, AZ, NC, ME-2, and NE-2 as key states/districts.

If Trump wins FL and PA, plus holds the 2 split districts we will 90% likely lose unless we flip NC. Even flipping AZ alone doesn't do do it (assuming we lose NC of course) as then it is the nightmarish 269-269 tie with the House electing Trump due to their almost locked-in 26 or more state delgations. No chance we lose PA but win OH or IA. I also was generous to us and gave us a sweep for MI, WI, MN, as a PA loss puts those states more at risk simply on trends.





IF the bottom map happens exactly like that EXCEPT we win NE-2, and NÈ-2 is razor thin (or do the same with ME-2) and we win with 270 on the nose, expect insanity as well, as it will be the first modern POTUS election decided due to a state splitting its electoral votes.

Finally, watch 2 trends in the Senate races, neither good. NC is tightening (waiting on new polls to confirm) and Bullock is not, surprisingly, gaining traction against the dullard Daines (one of the least intelligent Senators in the last couple decades.) The rest (11 others races we have even a slight shot (or much better) at) are moving along more or less the same.

[still_one]

34. That is what I am referring to, because it will be those "swing states" that will determine the

election, and I do not agree that we are complacent. Rather, some are quite concerned about the closeness of the race via the electoral college, and do not want to hear how close it really is

If it is the second scenario where it is a tie, we win, because we control the House

[Celerity]

50. no, we do not control the House, each state gets one vote, and the Rethugs control 26 state

delegations atm, and it will be hard to get them below 26 on net. It takes 26 votes to elect the POTUS via the House in the event of a 269-269 tie.

The current count is

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states

Rethugs 26

Dems 23

Tied 1 (PA)

MI would be tied (we control it by one atm) if Amash had not left the Rethug Caucus. They will likely win it back (that seat is fairly strong Rethug for the House, Amash was an easy winner, sometimes by over 20 points election after election) The Rethugs also could win one more on top of that and take control back. That would put them at 27 delegations. They also could gain another if they break the tie in PA, or if they flip one seat in AZ or another if they flip one district in CO.

One flip in IA would take away one of our sate delegations (it would be tied then, 2-2). One Maine flip (Jared Golden ME-2, who barely won in 2018) would tie it 1-1 and take away aother one from us. The same for MN, where one flip for the Rethugs would tie it 4-4 and take it away from us. The same for NH, one Rethug flip and it is tied 1-1 and in NV, one Rethug flip and it is tied 2-2, thus we lose another (NV-3 and NV-4 would be where it would come from.


The only states we have even a remote chance to actually take one of their current 26 away are

KS A flip for us in one district in KS would make it a 2-2 tie, but those 3 are all safe red seats, although KS-2 MIGHT be in play. Michelle De La Isla (D) versus Jake LaTurner (R), who beat the incumbent Rethug, Steve Watkins, in the primary (not good for us, as Watkins was scandal-ridden).

FL (14 R, 13 D) Due to gerrymandering, it comes down to one race, FL-15, with Scott Franklin (R) versus Alan Cohn (D). Franklin beat the scandal-ridden incumbent Rethug Ross Spano, so that makes it even harder, and it is rated likely R to lean R.
Also, even if we scored a major upset there, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26 could lose.

WI (5 R 3 D) super gerrymandered, we have little chance at any of the five Rethug districts. WI and NC are probably the two most corrupt swing states gerrymandering wise at every level, from the State legislatures to the US House.

Alaska (At-large R) - Don Young, longest-serving member of the U.S. House of Representatives in history (24 straight terms) versus Independent Alyse Galvin. It is basically a dead heat atm (so little polling though), so that is probably our best shot.

finally

Montana (At-large R) Matt Rosendale (R) versus Kathleen Williams (D) Our other best shot to take one away. Basically a dead heat, but Rosendale is slightly ahead on average. Williams had a non-rated poll that showed her ahead, but others show Rosendale ahead 2 to 6 points.

[jorgevlorgan]

57. FWIW if we pick up two state delegations, we could ha e control

If there is a tie. The house delegation is based on the 2020 results . But counting on that to happen would also be insane.

[Celerity]

68. We need to pick up a net 3 to get to 26, which is almost impossible, given the complete rundown

of all 50 delegations. I know it is based of 2020 results, that is why I gave you so much detail on the races in 2020.

If we do not flip MI-3, the Amash seat (and if we fail, then we do not flip MI-6, the Fred Upton district, the one where Biden fundraised for Upton in 2018 and he barely won, or we do not hold MI-8, where incumbent Dem Elissa Slotkin is in a toss-up with Paul Junge, the Rethug), we then need a plus 4 net to get to 26. IF we hold MI-8 and flip either MI-3 or MI-6 we still only need a net plus 3 to get to 26.

Pretty much the only path (if lose delegation control in MI and thus need a net plus 4) is to defend all the rest we have (the close ones being AZ (2 D seats in slight play), CO (we likely hold), MN (Collin Peterson (D) is in big trouble in MN-7, a ruby red district, if he loses we have absolutely zero path to 26), IA (we are in big trouble in IA-2, where we could lose a seat and thus the delegation,, Loebsack retired and the Rethug Mariannette Miller-Meeks is consistently leading Rita Hart, the Dem) NH (very likely we hold both), ME (Jared Golden in ME-2 should win, but it is not a lock), and NV (NV-3 and NV-4 are the two closest ones we are defending), all of which are states where one Rethug flip takes it away from us) plus we must also flip PA (it will come down to 2 R seats and 2 D seats in play), AK, FL (FL-15 is so key, but we also could flip it it, and still not gain the delegation if we lose FL-26, which is a toss-up and our incumbent Dem, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is trailing the Rethug, Carlos Giménez atm), and MT, non of which are easy at all, and certainly not guaranteed. That is literally a perfect sweep needed, one fuck up and we have zero chance, short of miracle flips in either WI or KS or both. IA-2 and MN-7 really worry me, as does FL-26.

RI and Vermont are one Rethug flip away from a tie (RI) or Rethug control (VT) but those 3 seats are rock solid Democratic.

The odds are really low we get to 26. Far below us re-taking the Senate (which is looking quite good IMHO) or Trump cheating his way to win in the POTUS race. Gerrymandering has just fucked us so hard over the past 2 decades (and I so worry about the 2020 census as well, on so so many levels, not just gerrymandering, but also the Electoral College and federal funding, etc.). We are defending so many House seats in purple, pinkish and even a few red districts, with many in key (delegation wise) states.

[still_one]

59. Thanks. The gerrymandering has really screwed us

[Celerity]

3. So much this. NT

[qazplm135]

6. no one is cocky and no one is complacent

but here's the reality...

Yeah, the swing states are, well, swing states. That means, in theory, they could go either way.

BUT, it isn't about the idea that any single swing state can go either way, it's about the number of swing states, where they are, and how much Trump needs nearly ALL of them to swing his way.

GA is a swing state this cycle.
TX is a swing state this cycle.
AZ is a swing state this cycle.
NC is a swing state this cycle.

That's four very red states in recent history that Trump now has to compete and win in, not to mention FL, WI, MI, PA, OH.

Meanwhile states like CO, VA, NM, NV aren't really swing states.

Trump is playing defense everywhere, Biden is playing defense nowhere.

Trump needs something like 90 percent of these states to go his way...Biden can win if JUST Texas falls, or if just OH and PA falls, or just FL and AZ falls.

If this were a poker game, Trump would be trying to draw to an inside straight still needing two cards, and Biden is sitting on three of a kind with the potential of a flush, four of a kind, or full house still out there. Trump has one narrow path, Biden has multiple paths.

So yeah, no we don't need to work like we are 10 pts down. When you are 10 pts down you stop working because it's likely over. We need to work like we have a chance to win not just the WH, but the Senate and the House. We have to work like there's a real strong chance of victory if we just go full out the next two months.

Optimism is ok, really. It is.

[beachbumbob]

7. Michigan and Arizona

[JI7]

48. lol. how do you know how much people are working ?

[Yavin4]

4. That is bad news for Trump. He now has to work harder to win this state

He now has to work harder to win this state, and he has to win this state. This also detracts from working in PA-WI-MI.

Biden does not need FLA.

[Zeus69]

8. True, but

What exactly has trump done in the last few weeks in Florida to reconcile this trend? He seems to have that state on “auto pilot”.

A month ago, Biden was almost +6. As recently as a little over a week, he was around +5. Now it’s down to +2.

These are worrisome patterns, all while Trump continues to shit all over himself.

[brooklynite]

13. Biden was only about 3% ahead in previous polling, and he's underperforming with Hispanic voters

The Bendixen & Amandi poll — conducted Sept. 1 to Sept. 4 — wasn’t all bad news for the former vice president. Biden led Trump, 51% to 33% among Miami-Dade County’s independent voters and 48% to 44% among white voters. Biden was also winning 16% of Republicans.

But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article245495835.html#storylink=cpy

[Yavin4]

22. Biden's default path is Hillary's states + PA-WI-MI.

FlA, GA, NC, OH, and AZ are icing on the cake. The key to victory is to make Trump work in these states and stay off the default path.

I would send Kamala to FlA, GA, and NC. Her star power will boost support from the major metro and suburban areas of those states which will make Trump and Pence work harder to match the enthusiasm.

Joe should stay focus on PA-WI-MI and give some time to OH and AZ.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. Ugh!

Keep reminding myself, "It's just one pollster. It's just one pollster..."

As for any complacency, no way is that true for me. I'll vote for Biden and all Democrats like my life depended on it regardless of any polls.

[FM123]

10. Yep, Florinteresting.....

But we got a few things up our sleeves that are also interesting: for the first time in practically forever - we now have more registered Dems than repugs by over a quarter million registered voters, we now have the largest population (a million) of Puerto Ricans residing in any of the 50 states (and they can vote), we've got repubs like Ana Navarro stumping for Biden, and athlete/activists like LeBron James paying off court fines so ex-felons can vote in November. The polls may not look great today, but even with DeSatan trying to muck things up - we may just beat trump to a pulp anyway. Stay tuned, it may get even more interesting here in Florida...

[peggysue2]

19. Think that Puerto Rican electorate should really be focused on in Florida

Trump has exhibited his total disdain for the Puerto Rican people, abandoning the island after hurricane Maria. Can't imagine that event created any love for Trump and his enablers. Dems should be courting their votes now. Read this morning that the campaign team is sending reps down to Florida with Hispanic voters in mind because Hillary's vote share with Hispanics overall was considerably larger than Biden's share is now.

But yes. Always interesting!

[OrlandoDem2]

43. To get the PR vote, Biden must be willing to support statehood. Nothing else matters.

[Takket]

12. This should surprise no one

Recall in 2018 Florida was the primary reason it looked there was going to be no blue wave on election night. Fortunately the state turned out to be a red fluke in the midst of the blue wave, but red it was. DeSantis and Scott both won statewide races with many contested house seats going red too.

The state is deeply divided and winnable but to expect a Biden to win by anything more than an eyelash down there is not realistic. These polls are right where the state’s voting history says they should be.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. 2 points feels like a landslide in Florida

I always dismiss any Florida poll suggesting a high margin either way.

But there's no question the Democratic operation is subpar in Florida, and that remedying the matter needs to be the top priority. Nate Silver tweeted last week that the national electoral landscape would be vastly different if Florida moved from just right of the tipping point to just left of the tipping point. That is exactly correct. It basically means 2 points. The GOP steals those 2 points every cycle by emphasizing Florida all year long while we attempt cram sessions in the final 2 months. It never fails. I saw a report yesterday that Biden's team just hired someone to work on Hispanic messaging. The DNC should have had that in place years ago.

However, I don't mind any poll that has Biden well ahead among independents. That's where this race will be decided. Many of the other numbers are crap, like Biden and Trump tied among Hispanics. I always emphasized that Hispanics love the presidential incumbent and that Trump would fare better there than any logic suggests. But it won't move anywhere near even. Gillum was an awful candidate yet won Hispanics by 10 points.

[OrlandoDem2]

42. This!! I was nodding my head all the through your post!

[saljr1]

14. Biden and Latino vote in Florida?

Does anybody know why Biden isn’t doing better with Latinos in Florida besides the Cuban vote? Hillary was +27% and Trump is + 4 in that poll. That seems unusual to me.

[GusFring]

16. People will tell you that there is a huge portion of latinos that love Trump. Especially Cubans and

And some Mexicans. Why that is? I have no clue.

[Thekaspervote]

21. Sadly, those that are here want to shut out others, afraid they will lose their jobs.

They like dotard’s harsh immigration policy. It’s the same in Tx.

[saljr1]

33. I would think we would get the

Puerto Rican vote who moved their during the hurricane and the way this guy treated them by throwing effing paper towels at a press conference. What asshole he is.

[OrlandoDem2]

41. To get the PR vote, Biden must send signals he supports statehood. Period. End of story.

[Yavin4]

27. Socialism, Bernie, and AOC

Florida's Cuban population is highly reactionary. All you have to do is yell, "Socialism", and they go nuts.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Exactly

See my post below regarding Andrew Gillum. Your post was not here when I began, otherwise I would have responded directly. I hear socialism while walking through grocery stores.

[maxrandb]

63. And yet, if you wanted to find a better Castro clone

you couldn't do better than Donnie Dipshit.

I just don't get it. I'm sure there were people that thought Castro was for the common man too.

Hell, even Donnie Shit for Brains speeches challenge Castro for length and self praise.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Nominating Andrew Gillum was devastating in Florida

That can never be emphasized enough. It was hardly 2018 impact alone. That nomination sparked socialism fear among Hispanics and especially Cubans, and it was enough to attach to Bill Nelson and lesser degree to subsequent Democrats including Joe Biden. Maybe you had to be here living in the Miami suburbs to fully appreciate it.

I have mentioned 20+ times that the exit poll had 46% saying Gillum was too liberal for the state. That 46% is an incredible number that should not be possible. It screamed that this state is vulnerable to that type of fear, and once your gubernatorial nominee is considered an ideological reject all of a sudden those voters are more cynical of your nominees to begin with.

[OrlandoDem2]

40. I voted for Graham and knew Gillum would lose. Then the stupid Hamilton tickets. Ugh!

[Aepps22]

20. Turnout

Turnout is the name of the game. Polls are going to be up and down for the next couple of months but we just need to make sure that our people are registered and able to vote.

[Thekaspervote]

23. I have my doubts we will win FL. Good news is we don't need it to win, they can't win without it

On the other hand the Economist poll aggregator gives Biden a 70% chance of winning the state, Cook Politcal has Fl in its lean dem column

[triron]

24. I honestly don't get it. WTF!??

How can Trump even be competitive? What the hell is wrong with these people.

[Yavin4]

30. See my post #27

This is why Trump is calling Biden a "Socialist". We all know how absurd it is, but it works like a charm with Florida's Cuban community.

[BannonsLiver]

26. I'm going with Biden +2 final MOV in FL when all is said and done

[Loge23]

29. Forget about Florida

I'm here - it's a lost cause.
1. A still strong base of rednecks whom own many of the businesses here.
2. Add in the hordes of aggrieved white retirees from their socialist civil service jobs up north.
3. A very segregated society still - voter suppression is baked in.

We're working hard with phone banking, voter reg, rallying the Dems, etc., but it's not looking good here - gotta be realistic.
We can still pull out a win without FL - I suppose the party knows this. That said, the IPOTUS is running ad after ad with total bullshit that our side is not refuting. What would it take for Joe to make an ad specifically refuting the lies about him and his record??

[OrlandoDem2]

35. I'm in FL too and I give up. Our party leadership is horrible.

Go back and look at its track record the past 25 years.

The Washington Generals have better success against the Globetrotters.

The FlaDems are poorly organized and poorly advised. The consultants are horrible. I’m sick of our losing record. I volunteer in Central Fl but I’m getting so sick of losing. Did I say that already? Something has to give!

We don’t win gubernatorial elections. We aren’t a force in the legislature. We win US senate seats occasionally but not any more. It’s time for new leadership.

We lose in Blue Wave years like 2018 as you said.

I’ll do my part but I have no faith FL will go Blue. Best to focus on the mid west and PA.

[rockfordfile]

69. The race is close in FL keep fighting

[Zeus69]

55. That's sad to hear.

Thanks for your efforts.

[Dem2]

36. Thanks for this depressing thread

[budkin]

38. Use it to motivate you

We were all getting a bit complacent.

[budkin]

37. This one has me perplexed, but also motivated to work harder

Everyone do some phone banking in Florida if you can!

[OrlandoDem2]

39. Also, if you live in a blue state make sure you vote in FL if dual residence.

[budkin]

44. Is that even possible?

I didn't realize you could have dual residence.

[LisaL]

47. Some people live in one state in a summer and in other state in winter.

So I guess they can decide which state to vote in.

[budkin]

58. Interesting.

Today I learned!

[Trailrider1951]

60. The legal term is domicile

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/domicile

I used to live full time in my RV, and worked in several different states. As a mobile resident, I got to choose where my legal home was. The rules state that you must 1. maintain a legal address in that state. My RV club (Escapees) had a mail forwarding service. No matter where I lived, I could have my legal address with them and have my mail sent to me. 2. You must maintain legal documentation, i.e., drivers license, voter registration, etc. in your chosen state. This is documentation that you have legal ties to your chosen state. 3. You are responsible for paying all taxes associated with the state of legal residence. That about covers it. Hope this helps!

[radius777]

45. We'll win Florida, Obama/Biden won it twice.

I have a feeling that some of these models have swung the other way to overestimate Trump support.

Everyone knows who Biden is and knows he is no socialist - nobody is going to perceive him that way, regardless of how Gillum or whoeve else ran.

Kamala - with her star power, immigrant family and moderate/prosecutor background - has appeal not only to blacks but also Latinos (especially Puerto Ricans, who tend to be center-left) and West Indians. They should deploy her to the major metro TV stations for local interviews (since rallies are not practical), as the local communities tend to trust their local TV people.

DeSantis' poor handling of covid is IMO the main reason we'll win - we just need to run ads showing Trump/DeSantis and the bodybags piling up (and economic loss as a result).

FL also has alot of military people/families and I doubt they will react welll to the anti-military (and anti-McCain) stuff coming out from the Atlantic piece.

[JI7]

49. Obama was very careful not to offend certain sensibilities people had

so certain labels didn't get attached to him so easily.

[radius777]

51. Biden is similar, in the sense of having broad cultural appeal,

especially amongst some of the demographic groups Hillary had issues with.

[Awsi Dooger]

46. If Biden loses Florida it will be due to Andrew Gillum

No question about it. That socialism fear was near dormant until that moronic nomination.

Actually it wasn't Gillum's fault as much as the Sanders wing stupidly not understanding the complicated nature of Florida politics, and somehow believing they could force the most liberal candidate through the process without Cubans noticing.

[radius777]

52. Nobody associates Biden with socialism or the Sanders wing. /nt

[RhodeIslandOne]

64. Why does anyone still care about that?

It was two fucking years ago. Maybe the Cubanos should get the fuck over it and worry about Governor DeKKKlantis killing them with COVID instead. Dumb fucks. Joe Biden is not Andrew Gillium!

By the way THAT FUCKING ELECTION WAS RIGGED AND FLORIDA WILL BE THIS TIME TOO! FUCK FLORIDA!!!!

[Wanderlust988]

53. This poll oversampled Republicans

[andym]

56. Trump's painting of Biden as a radical is working on Latinos?

Biden needs to step up the ads targeting Latinos, especially Cubans in Florida-- no way he should be down that much.

"In a significant break from 2016, Trump holds the narrow edge over Biden among likely Latino voters, 50% to 46% – with Trump leading sizably among Latinos of Cuban descent, and with Biden just slightly ahead among all other Latinos in the state."

[Wounded Bear]

61. Biden can win without Florida. I don't think Trump can...

given the current polling around the country.

Trump has a very narrow path to victory. Biden has several paths.

This is actually decent news. If Trump has to spend resources to defend places like Florida, Biden can win it all elsewhere.

[vercetti2021]

62. Thanks for your concern post

One poll doesn't worry me. Lot of y'all low posting users really shoving out the doom and gloom today.

[Zeus69]

65. You're welcome

Not sure what post count has to do with it but, yea... I am concerned about the trend-line in Florida.

Want as much EC space between Biden and Trump. Florida to Joe would be huge on so many levels.

[Awsi Dooger]

66. I saw another poll today with Biden up 5 in Florida

Feels more like 2 or 3 to me.

Independents will decide this. And seniors. I wish the messaging on social security were more blunt. I saw an ad in Miami recently that wandered around too much instead of simply leading off with social security will end in mid 2023 if Donald Trump is reelected. Get that out there first, then mention the payroll tax as reason.

State polls are junior varsity polls. That's why there is no much fluctuation. They are worthwhile in combination but individually that junior varsity aspect is the dominant reality.

[rockfordfile]

67. It's going to be a close race in FL