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Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:15 PM

Texas has 38 electoral votes, Florida has 29

We hear so much about Florida and not so much about Texas. Does anyone else think this is odd?

21 replies, 793 views

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:16 PM

1. Florida is a swing state, Texas is still pretty red.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:17 PM

2. First time in a long time that Texas was in play imho

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:18 PM

3. I think Texas may be in play more than most people realize

Beto has been doing good work, as have others.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:18 PM

4. In the last 7 presidential elections, Democrats have won Florida three times and

just missed winning Florida 4 times (2000). During that time the Democratic Party candidate has gotten beaten badly in Texas each time. Thatís why.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:19 PM

5. TX is that fastball on the outside of the strike zone

Looks like it's a strike. You think that you can hit it, but it's just out of reach.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:24 PM

7. Carter was the last Texas Dem vote

But wouldn't be a homer if we connected on Texas?

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Response to StClone (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:33 PM

10. Absolutely!

Itís a 1964, LBJ-style landslide if we win TX.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:39 PM

13. We could sing in the seventh inning stretch

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Response to StClone (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:42 PM

15. Yessss! n/t



-Laelth

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Response to StClone (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:00 PM

19. Or a strikeout swinging

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #19)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:17 PM

21. Yessir High and outside! Retires the side.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:20 PM

6. Things are changing and I'm surprised more of the media isn't noticing

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:24 PM

8. Florida is

Historically always close and winnable and Texas is not.

So pretty easy to see why folks buy into winning one over the other.

Regardless, if Biden is winning either, he's probably already winning over 270 anyways.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:31 PM

9. No. Our chances of winning Florida are greater. n/t



-Laelth

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:35 PM

11. Texas has 43% conservatives and Florida 36%

The gap between those two numbers cannot be overstated in practical terms.

The Republican typically receives 82-85% of the conservative vote. At 43% conservatives that means the Republican has already banked between 35.2 and 36.5% of the electorate, before the liberal category or moderate category are explored at all. The mathematical margin for error is immense. That's why for decades I have always wagered on Republicans in states with 40ish% conservatives and a favorable betting price. It feels like stealing. Cruz, for example, only received 34% of the moderate vote in 2018. But it was plenty high enough to defeat Beto due to all those conservatives.

I realize the media never mentions this, and that's why so many people refuse to believe it is that simple. But it is indeed that simple.

Another way to look at it is in terms of resistance. I have seen posts here emphasizing that Texas polling has understated the Democrat recently. That is true, but it is an entirely different ball game when a 9 point loss was overestimated at 12, or a 3 point loss was overestimated at 6, compared to a shift of fate 3 points from one victor to the other victor. That ideological wall is so damn close. The more you push the greater the resistance and none of the major categories cooperate toward another 3 point error.

Biden can win Texas. However it would require a huge national margin in the 9-10 point range, combined with an altered Texas electorate dropping to 40% conservatives or thereabouts due to influx of new voters, and some right leaning anti-Trumpers briefly staying home or not describing themselves as conservative. There are occasional examples of that type of thing, like North Carolina 2008. But outlier mode is not something I care about. As a gambler you have to ignore subjective hype, ignore exceptions, and focus on an easy way to allow numerical normalcy to work in your favor.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:39 PM

12. I don't think Texas will fully swing until..

 

They get a Democratic Gov..

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:41 PM

14. We'll know soon enough...

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:43 PM

16. Because Texas has been red while Florida is purple.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:48 PM

17. Texas is looking much more purple these days

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 08:58 PM

18. Texas could be blue if people would get off their duff and vote! You get the govt. you deserve.

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Response to dlk (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:14 PM

20. We need WI, PA & MI to win. It would be nice to win FL, but it's not historically favorable for us

Tx..is a no

My opinion only.. remember we donít need either to win.

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