Trump gains rattle Miami Dems: The president is running ahead of his 2016 pace...

[liskddksil]

... in Florida’s most populous county.

MIAMI — The basic electoral math in Florida looks something like this: Democrats roll up their votes in South Florida and Miami-Dade County, Republicans pad their numbers in the north and statewide races are decided in the Interstate 4 Corridor in between.

This year, however, the I-4 Corridor is taking a back seat in some of those calculations. President Donald Trump’s campaign and Republicans are making inroads in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, forcing the Biden campaign to scramble in response to the threat to the wellspring of Democratic votes.

In a county where more than half of the residents are born outside the mainland U.S. — mostly in Latin America — Trump has outspent Joe Biden’s campaign by about $4 million on TV in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale media market, much of it on Spanish-language ads. The president’s conservative allies have dominated Spanish-language social media and WhatsApp messaging to Spanish-speakers. And the Miami-Dade County GOP has fielded candidates in five key local races, all of whom are Cuban-American, which could help turn out the pro-Trump Republican vote.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/trump-miami-florida-support-410362

[Thekaspervote]

1. It would be nice if we won FL, but we don't need it to win!! Far from it

[liskddksil]

2. If we don't want "election-month" and a legal nightmare

Florida and Texas are critical as they both will count all votes that night.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Agree, just trying to be realistic yet optimistic as we can win without FL

[Polybius]

8. Texas is now out of the question

Focusing on Florida is the better option.

[liskddksil]

12. No evidence of that. Polls in Texas are as close as Florida

and its demographics are moving much more favorably than Florida. Obviously we need both, but Texas is absolutely worth the investment with a Senate race, several competitive house races and control of the State house within reach.

[PaDemocrat]

5. We need FL or PA IMO

[Sugarcoated]

7. Scranton Joe's been ahead in Pennsylvania

since he entered the race

[Celerity]

10. Yes, If Rumps carries FL AND PA, plus ME-2 and NE-2, he probably wins unless we flip NC.

Even flipping AZ only gets it to a 269-269 tie (and thus a likely win in the House as the Rethugs will probably control at least 26 state delegations, barring some upsets in key states.

IF he wins PA, odds are very high he takes OH and IA. I then give us every other realistic swing state except for NC (and obviously the the 2 states and 2 districts in the title). (no, GA and TX are not realistic this election if the maps breaks like this, the odds are so low we take them whilst losing FL and PA)



He also wins if we take PA but he takes AZ, NC, and WI, and ONE of ME-2 or NE-2 (269-269 again, but a straight win if he takes both, ME-2 he leads in, NE-2 he is behind)




Those 2 maps are the most likely of all the 269-269 tie scenarios I can spin up. A true nightmare, especially if one or more state delegations in the House (ones that would take the Rethugs below 26) are also tied up by crazy close disputed elections at district level. The country will tear itself apart. for awhile I fear.

ALL that said

I think this is the map (atm) that will actually happen

[kurtcagle]

11. The last has been my expected map

I think we'll take NC and PA, and may take FL and/or AZ. GA is too heavily controlled by the GOP - I expect we'll suddenly discover much of south Atlanta's votes just evaporate in thin air. SC might surprise, and I'd still not completely rule out IA, but, this one seems the most likely.

[Celerity]

13. AZ is looking better than most of the other swing states

CO and VA are Blue locks

the other swing states we are up in similar fashion to AZ (the rest are closer atm)

[Rice4VP]

3. So what are they going to do about it?

I’ve been hearing for a month that Dems aren’t doing well with Hispanics in Florida. Haven’t they gotten the message? WTH

Hopefully Kamala’s trip to Miami isn’t some lame sit down with 5 people. Do a drive in rally and have people come in their trucks and cars

[msongs]

6. 2nd largest group in the usa is not feeling the love eh? nt

[Bev54]

9. I am not going to let these media outlets, do everything they can

to convince us Trump is going to win. Politico has some right wing writers. I will go with the experts assessment, who do not have skin in the game to make us want to continue to read or watch them because they are trying to scare the hell out of us. I am not putting my head in the sand, just choosing not to let them cause anymore stress.

[global1]

14. I Would Blitz The State With Ads As To How Trump Will End Social Security & Medicare.....

The Dems need to get the Senior citizens in Florida really riled up.

[ooky]

15. I'm wondering what they are waiting for. Nobody is talking about

social security. wtf...

[LeftInTX]

19. I know

The Dems are too focused on the "youth vote"

[JI7]

16. Biden does better with White People than Hillary

Florida might be a place where they focus more on getting white voters to make up for any loss in hispanic voters.

Try to increase turnout of black and Jewish people as much as possible also .

[Awsi Dooger]

17. I've warned about this for years

I read several articles years ago that indicated the GOP understood that cutting losses in Miami-Dade was their key to winning Florida. Consequently they are relentless all year long. Door to door in my suburban neighborhood. Plastering Spanish media with ads. Democratic operatives should have recognized this at the same time I did but instead it's the typical last minute sense and scramble.

There is nothing wrong with Florida except we get outworked and out strategized every cycle.

Oh, and the Andrew Gillum fiasco. None of the GOP fear tactics in South Florida would be nearly as effective or advanced if we hadn't nominated someone who was so easily tagged a corrupt socialist.

There are not as many Trump signs as I expected but the article is correct to point out those Cuban-American nominees in local races. I see those yards signs everywhere. Currently the most prominent sign is BOVO. Everywhere I go I see BOVO. He is running against a liberal Democrat for Miami mayor in Daniella Levine Cava. I voted for Cava in the primary over the more moderate Alex Penelas. I don't think the nominee in that race will do anything to the presidential race. But the totality is properly spotlighted by the Politico article.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. That entire Politico article is very good

Everyone should read the entirety, and not merely the paragraphs from the OP.

This section was particularly familiar:

"Miami state Sen. Annette Taddeo, a Democrat, said the raft of polling and the late-breaking response to Trump’s threat in Florida has the party taking the matter seriously after months of discarding warnings.

“Some of us have been warning about this, but it was kill the messenger: ‘You just bitch about everything.’ And now they're like ‘Ahhhhh! What do we do?’” she said.