I posted a few threads with great poll numbers this morning

[Proud liberal 80]

But watch the media narrative be “the race is tightening” or “why isn’t Biden doing better with ‘enter key demographics’ “

[JI7]

1. I think the important thing is to look at long term trends in the polls

and always assume the lower number is more accurate and to try to get out votes based on the lower numbers just to be safe . Also take into account things like voter suppression and people making mistakes which might get the ballots tossed out and other factors.

[Demsrule86]

22. I think that if anyone does what you suggest, they will probably be to0 depressed to vote...you

consider the good polls as well as the negative ones...and by the way...there are more good polls for Biden...enthusiasm is not generated by by doom and gloom...just the opposite. I believe we may very well win by a landslide. And consider the media wants a horse race and thus will give polls showing Biden down preference no matter how shitty they may be.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. we would all be better if everyone turned off tv media

[Funtatlaguy]

3. I'm liking almost everything forBiden except Hispanics are

his weak spot.
With both Cuban and non Cuban Hispanics, Biden is underperforming Hillary.
But, he makes up for it by doing better with educated white voters.

[Mike 03]

5. Heard that too.

That was alarming. I don't understand how Biden can be underperforming Hillary amongst that group.

[Demsrule86]

20. It is the Cuban vote in Florida which is historically Republican...but I still think Biden may take

Florida.

[Proud liberal 80]

6. I don't get it

What has Trump done these last 4 years for Hispanics to say “yeah, I want more of that”

[treestar]

29. The Cuban vote is different in that they are anti-Cuba

President Obama was opening up to Cuba, allowing travel, etc. Dotard went back to the way they want it.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Trump didn't have to do anything to gain support among Hispanics

Hispanics love presidential incumbents. I have posted that here and elsewhere for years, including that it would be idiotic to assign the 2016 Hispanic share of the vote to the Democratic nominee, no matter who it was.

I remember Rachel Maddow in 2018 during the children in cages episode emphasizing that Trump's support among Hispanics was already low and sure to plummet. Sorry, I realize Rachel is popular around here but episodes like that are why I don't share the approval. She is totally clueless to the big picture time and again.

In South Florida the Hispanic shift is more pronounced than elsewhere due to socialism fear spreading among Cubans, launched by the nomination of Andrew Gillum in 2018. Gillum had impressive appearances during the campaign but bottom line he had ethics cloud in Tallahassee which enabled DeSantis to successfully label him as a corrupt socialist. The Bernie Sanders/AOC wing needed to stay out of that Florida nominating process in 2018. They had absolutely no idea what they were doing and it has shifted the Cuban vote after decades of slow Democratic progress with that demographic.

[Mike 03]

4. Yes, heard a bit of this on Morning Joe today.

They were focusing on the Cuban-immigrant vote in Florida and making it sound like Dems had a catastrophe on their hands.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Florida is gravy if Biden wins Pa,Wi,Mi......

[Celerity]

13. Yes, if we take thise 3 Rump has only 2 ways to get to 270

Hold everything else he won in 2016 and then flip

NV plus NH

Or Flip MN

Obviously MN plus either NH or NV or all three works as well

You get the idea from this one (Flips MN, holds the rest save for WI, MI, PA)




ALL those scenarios are HIGHLY unlikely, unless one thing happens. Minnesota has another incident and goes completely bonkers, and it spills over into WI (or a separate incident there) and the unrest and damage is far worse than it has been so far. That might be enough to drag it and WI over the line, and puts other states in jeopardy as well.

We REALLY have to watch out for false flags by the RW. Rump will do ANYTHING to 'win', anything.

[Klaralven]

8. 538 has widened its forecast to 74 out of 100 for Biden, 26 out of 100 for Trump

It was 67 to 32 on August 31.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[BlueWavePsych]

16. 538 model is inching forward.

Other models (eg, Economist) are being tweaked to play it safe.

[Klaralven]

18. This is pretty rapid change for a model that processes many polls over a window of some days

The change is a result of both new polls being included and old polls being dropped.

[JustGene]

9. Yeah, screw 'em look at the #'s n/t

[Proud liberal 80]

10. It's like they are searching for bad polls for Biden

Then can look at 100 polls that show him with a 6-8 point lead, but point out one that shows it’s at 2...

[beachbumbob]

11. ignore media hype as there sole purpose now is to frame a narrative of "close:

I watch NO media outlets at all. Keeps clarity in perspective

[Johnny2X2X]

12. The race is remarkably static

Biden's lead has been 7.5-9 for basically 3 months. No change. States are pretty static too, no major swings.

I think some here were expecting Biden to pull away in some of the states, but he's simply leading by 5-10 in most of the swing states, and by slightly less than that in FL. But he's widened his lead in AZ and now clearly leads NC.

[beachbumbob]

14. and the focus of eliminating SS and Medicare hasn;t even started, imagine the impact

in Florida, Arizona, Texas and several other "redstates" with significant over 55 voters and retirees

[BlueWavePsych]

17. NC lead is good news.

As of yesterday ... was getting worried about PA and NC. PA has now shot ahead for Biden.

[BannonsLiver]

15. Here's what they do

Let’s say there’s a day like today when there’s a bunch of polls.

Let’s say 4 of them have Biden +9 or 10 nationally and there is one that shows him up just 4 nationally. The polls with the larger spreads are thrown aside in favor of the one that shows a closer race.

That allows them to frame the “tightening” narrative with an actual poll. Cuomo does this on his show all the time. Ive seen them actually toss aside CNN’s own polling when it doesn’t reinforce the horse race narrative.

[Demsrule86]

19. And the usual suspects here doom and gloom types using the very few polls that do not show good

news...trying to do what? I have no idea what motivates such posters...

[NurseJackie]

40. I know what you mean. Your observations have merit. Mysterious motives abound.

[NurseJackie]

21. Why watch the media narrative? There's plenty of it RIGHT HERE to go around.

Why watch the media narrative? There's plenty of it RIGHT HERE to go around... and there are those who defend the plethora of "we're doomed" posts by referring to them as "call to action" and "motivational" posts.

My response to that is:

[Demsrule86]

23. And as you know such posts do not motivate voters...quite the opposite.

[LizBeth]

26. +1

[LizBeth]

25. +1. Exactly then if challenged the scold comes with focus, eye on the ball yada yada. Like just

because we recognize Biden is ahead, and it is inevitably a win for Biden minus the cheating and stealing that will be played out anyone is going to sit down and do nothing from here to voting day. It is tiring.

[liskddksil]

28. I'm pretty sure no one on Biden's staff is looking at numbers that need improvement and saying all

is good, like his poor performance among Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade and even nationally. We shouldn't be either.

Calls to action and motivational posts are not "we are doomed". They are just acknowledging where future efforts should be taken so we are not surprised on election night again like in 2016. I recall too many instances then, when similar warnings from posters were met with attack such as calling them "concern trolls". Learning from mistakes is a key aspect of improvement in all things.

[NurseJackie]

30. LOL

[liskddksil]

31. I guess you aren't taking this seriously, but I sure am nt

[NurseJackie]

32. Uh-huh. It's more accurate to say that I'm not as concerned...

... and I have more confidence in the Biden campaign than those who are "less enthused" about him and who seldom miss an opportunity to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. Those are my feelings on the matter.

[liskddksil]

34. We're all on the same team here. If our own side can't handle legitimate criticism

we will lose and deservedly so.

[NurseJackie]

35. Ridiculous.

If our own side can't handle legitimate criticism
we will lose and deservedly so.

Oh FFS! Cut it out. "Legitimate criticism"?? Ridiculous.

[liskddksil]

36. Please elaborate what is illegitimate or otherwise untrustworthy about my critiques of the campaign?

Is it the scientific polls I link to, the sourced articles I post. What?

[NurseJackie]

37. Serious posts shouldn't be met with this crap. I guess I should be on the Biden pay-roll...

... or something. Eh?

I'm much smarter than people give me credit for. I also think you're much smarter than you want me to believe... there's no need for me to explain or elaborate on anything. We both know perfectly well what this is about.

I've had enough.

[liskddksil]

38. Sounds good. I a long-long Democrat am not going to be lectured by anyone here about my credentials!

[NurseJackie]

39. Who said you weren't?

I a long-long Democrat am not going

Who said you weren't? Nobody questioned your "credentials".

[LizBeth]

24. I was saying yesterday, thread after thread saying how close, at least once a month we hear how

close the race is and everyone starts talking about a close race and the next day or so we get polls that shows Biden is consistently ahead about the same as he has always been. It is old.

[liskddksil]

27. Polls are a snap-shot in time and should always be evaluated critically. That said

they can show both positives and warning signs like Biden's poor performance with Hispanics in Miami-Dade county in recent Florida polls. In the case of warning-signs, it should taken as a call to action so those numbers improve in the next poll.