General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums*A + Rated Marist Likely Voter Battleground Pennsylvania Poll* Biden 52% Klansman 43%
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_PA-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009081145.pdfJohnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)The 52% is the big number here, that tells me this is not close. Coming back from 48-39 is possible but very hard, coming back from 46-37 is hard, but unlikely. But coming back from 52-43 is next to impossible, it means you have to sweep undecideds and then get hundreds of thousands of Joe supporters to leave Joe and vote for you.
Above 50% is where strategists start pulling out of a state. This is way different than Hillary leading 45-39 in PA at this time in 2016.
Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)who wins the election?
aeromanKC
(3,322 posts)Throw in Nebraska 2nd and its tied 269-269. Trump wins that scenario. We'll need one more such as Arizona or Wisconsin (Biden leading in both) Both would be nice that would give cushion to lose either New Hampshire or Minnesota which seems to be closest blue to reds.
But up big in PA and MI now is huge!!
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Still PA + MI + one more state is the easiest route to a win.
There are a lot of states where Biden is up that likely will be close that could put him over the finish line if he takes PA & MI
AZ
NC
WI
OH
He probably won't win all four of those but he doesn't need to just one (plus PA & MI) is enough.
Also there may be an upset/longshot in FL or GA but lower chance of that.
So Clinton-2016 states + PA + MI + other state = most likely path to victory
If Biden only pulls PA or MI (but not both) it gets tougher as he would need to pull two of those states from the list above and some of them are likely off the table. Example it is unlikely OH is still in play if Biden loses PA.
If Bien pulls neither PA or MI well it is Hail Mary time. The Rust belt is lost so we need a longshot. Maybe FL & AZ? It is likely Trump has won the Presidency if he keeps PA, MI & WI although anything is possible.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)That's assuming he holds Minnesota and New Hampshire. If he loses Minnesota and Wisconsin but wins Arizona, it's a 269-269 tie unless Biden can win back the second district in Maine or flip the second district in Nebraska.
still_one
(92,190 posts)It is a larger gap than other polls for Pennsylvania
Response to still_one (Reply #4)
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still_one
(92,190 posts)Response to still_one (Reply #6)
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still_one
(92,190 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)And its not 2016 anymore. Try to move into 2020.
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)candidate who had been destroyed by right wing attacks lobbed at her for 30 years? That 2016..hardly comparable. And he is losing in the suburbs.
'The Republican party candidate was Donald Trump, who won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6,000,000 cast, a difference of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election for the state in 176 years, since 1840 when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%.'
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If you question the results you can hire a pollster and report the results he or she found to the rest of us.
FakeNoose
(32,639 posts)... however I do think Biden will win Pennsylvania. I live in Pittsburgh and I haven't seen one Chump yard sign out in Pittsburgh. I mean, maybe a few but not enough to be noticed.
My sister lives in Westmoreland County (next to Allegheny and mostly suburban/exurban) and she has Chumpers around her. However a lot of her neighbors who displayed the Chump yard signs last time - are NOT putting out signs this time. My sister is seeing way fewer signs for Chump this year.
Long story short - a lot of people who went for Chump last time will NOT do it this time. In 2016 there were a lot of last-minute undecideds, and this year nobody is undecided. There won't be any "eeny-meeny-miney-moe" this year.
I really believe Biden is going to win this. The psychic people are predicting a Biden win also.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)Biden got a big boost from suburban likely voters.
agree - no way it is pushing double digits.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I was shocked how many Trump signs I saw. I know Marist is a good pollster, but I noticed they didn't weight on education, which a lot of pollsters have started doing after 2016, when white non-college voters were underrepresented in polls, due to either a lack of willingness to participate or higher than expected turnout.
DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)I was especially interested in the difference between registered Dems at 48% and self-identified Dems at 38%. It seems a great many registered Dems prefer to think of themselves as Independents.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)-Harry Enten
DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)how many registered Dems do not identify primarily as Dems. It's not surprising to me because lots of voters, especially where I am are still registered as Dems, but vote Republican and have never bothered to change their registration to match their party ID.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)So most independent voters register with one or the other party so they can participate in the primary. In a year with an incumbent president running for re-election with no serious primary challenger, the other party often gets a little bump in registration from independents who want to vote in their primary.
DeminPennswoods
(15,286 posts)nt
BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-leads-9-pennsylvania-n1239573
onetexan
(13,041 posts)PA is divided like the rest of the country is, no surprise there. But i do think suburban moms and independents will vote to put Biden on top