If anything, Biden's support in the swing states is being undercounted.

[Yavin4]

The media and pollsters are like weathermen whose forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain. Can never be wrong with that forecast. In order to avoid the embarassment of being wrong on election night as many pollsters were in 2016, I think that they're giving every benefit of the doubt to Trump and model their findings to give Trump the maximum benefit.

The most glaring example is the continued use of 2016 as the baseline instead of 2018. Every indication is there that this election will follow the patterns of 2018 over 2016. See my post below about this.

We saw the highest turnout for a mid-term election in 2018. In 2016, we saw record low turnout. Does anyone really think that 2020 is going to see the same turnout patterns as 2016?

Do I think that Biden is a lock? Of course not. Trump can win this election. He is the incumbent, and he can dominate the news cycle. There are overly-reactionary voters who will believe everything that he says. His supporters will show up.

But there's every indication that we will show up as well like we did in 2018, and if we do, we win.

We shouldn't be over-confident, but we should definitely be confident. Confidence breeds action. Seeing favorable polls motivates people to vote.

Be confident. Vote.


https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214044407

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Imagine if the polls were the opposite of what they are.

What if Trump were up 8 nationally and leading in every swing state by 3-12? We'd all be depressed and still working hard, but ready to lose.

2016 has us shocked still, there are many reasons we're in a way way better spot than 2016. Joe leads big and his lead isn't shrinking.

[Yavin4]

2. If the polls were reversed, Dems would be at each other's throats.

Progressives would blame the centrists and vice versa. It would not be a good look.

[FM123]

3. Yep!

"We shouldn't be over-confident, but we should definitely be confident. Confidence breeds action. Seeing favorable polls motivates people to vote."

Lately, there have been lots of polls/posts about my state of FL that give the impression that it's a goner - trump will take it. The problem with that is if folks down here just accept it, then they may not even bother to send in the ballot or show up to cast a vote. And we really need everyone to show up suit up and fight like we're going to win this thing. While we know that our repug governor & secretary of state will try election theft, it isn't inevitable they will be successful.

And the good news is that we now more registered Dems than we do repugs in Florida (by a quarter million more) even in trump's own Mar-a-Lago backyard of Palm Beach County, so we just might be able to pull a win out of this. But only if we are confident that it is even a possibility that our vote will matter.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

[gibraltar72]

4. My phone banking in Red Mi. South Central

indicates you are right. This is different than any time I've seen in twenty plus years of doing this. This is my 12th week this cycle. Last week I had a guy who immediately identified as Republican. Then said he was leaning Biden and we could talk. I started to talk and line went dead, I assumed he didn't want to talk and hung up. I started to fill my screen out to turn in indicating that, when my phone rang. The guy wanted me to know he hadn't hung up, his phone died and he grabbed another to call me back. He assured me he had been listening. I said well I think I was to the part where I shut up and listen to your concerns. He started talking and I listened. He cited his grievances with Trump for about 12 minutes, ending with social security. At that point I had said very little. I said well have I convinced you? He chuckled and said I don't think anyone ever let me talk I guess I convinced myself.

That is not atypical this time around. I have also found many Republicans who say they are afraid to air their views in public because of bullying or worse. Sometimes I listen sometimes I become a cheerleader when I find pessimism. We've got them on the run, keep pressing forward.