Biden leads by 7 in latest Monmouth poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

Link to tweet

It was 10 in their last poll but Biden didn't actually lose any support.

Compare that to fit years ago:

Link to tweet

[bearsfootball516]

1. Steady as she goes...

[EarlG]

2. That third party vote is key

Johnson polled at 8% but ended up with just over 3%. Most of those voters went to Trump.

There are comparatively very few undecideds (3% in the poll above) or third party voters this year. Trump doesn't have anywhere to suck up those extra votes from.

[still_one]

3. According to recent polls, third party voters from 2016 will be backing Biden 2 to 1

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

I also suspect most of the 47% who didn't vote in 2016 will not be sitting this one out

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Yup and this is why 2020 is not 2016.

The polls in 2016 told us a story that I think we all refused to see:

1. Hillary struggled getting 50 percent of the vote, as indicated in the Monmouth poll from 2016.

2. Many assumed the undecided voters would break for Hillary in the end. And maybe they would have had there been no Comey letter leak. I think many assumed that the third party vote was inflated in the polls, which it typically always is (and, as you mentioned, it was) and that the Never Trumpers were stronger than the Never Hillarys, meaning, when push came to shove, those third party voters and undecided voters would gravitate to Hillary.

It didn't happen. Trump won it overwhelmingly.

I don't see that happening in 2020.

[qazplm135]

6. Comey was worth 2-4 pts IMO

Without that letter, Hillary wins by 4-5 pts instead of 2.

[Laelth]

4. I am good whenever Biden is polling over 50%.

That’s unbeatable (from a historical perspective).

-Laelth