Holy Shit - Gulf of Mexico folks - this sure sprung up fast

[malaise]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern
Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas
eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This
system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the
Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to
become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical
wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the
system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg
------------------------

Could be Mustang Sally - stay safe

[Tommy_Carcetti]

1. That second to right storm is the one that worries me.

It's in that zone that's like a bowling ball heading straight for the middle of the alley, with a lot of warm water and potential energy in between where it is now and the Carribean/Atlantic Coast/Gulf Coast area.

[malaise]

2. Which one - 95L?

That one is going to do serious damage in the Caribbean. That's the one we're watching


Early days but projections suggest Northern Leewards and Virgin Islands then out to the ocean

[Chainfire]

8. Being on the Gulf Coast, that one has my attention too.

The only question be when it begins the curve to the North. And you are right about having plenty of hot water down there near Ten Degrees.

[misanthrope]

22. Same here. I've had my eye on its forecast for a few days now

That's the one with the potential for the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe early strengthening can help kick it into recurve in the middle of the ocean.

[Srkdqltr]

3. Shush don't tell anyone. Don't want to panic people.

[malaise]

4. Or get a sharpie for Louisiana

[Chainfire]

10. Yea, it is just a thunderstorm, and it will go away just like magic

[ornotna]

5. Number 3

That's the one I'm most worried about.

[malaise]

9. Which one is three?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

Is that 95L?

We may be lucky - those could be fish storms like Paulette and Rene

[ornotna]

11. Red X

Off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands.

[mcar]

6. Where did that come from?

Can you believe we're up to R already?

[malaise]

7. Could be both Sally and Teddy

before the day is done

[UrbScotty]

35. And Vicky and Wilfred might not be far behind.

Then the Greek alphabet.

[SheltieLover]

12. Be safe, All!

Ty, Malaise.

[Roland99]

13. Who gave Mother Nature an XBOX and a copy of Madden NFL???

[Warpy]

14. I can't remember seeing quite as many sotrms at once

Yeah, that one blew up fast.

[malaise]

18. Had to look that up

From Google:
What is the most number of hurricanes occurring in the Atlantic at one time?
"It's not something that you see all the time, but not unheard of, either," said Weather Channel meteorologist Danielle Banks. According to the National Hurricane Center, there have been as many as five active Atlantic tropical cyclones at once, which occurred Sept. 10-12, 1971.Sep 19, 2019

----------------
Today might be the most (six) at one time but none is a hurricane yet, only two are TSs and the others are potential systems.

[misanthrope]

24. This is the very apex of hurricane season

So there's not really anything unusual about any of this.

Hopefully all these storms can help cool the waters a wee bit since they stir cooler water from the depth and block a portion of sunlight. That applies to the Gulf more than the Atlantic as the area is more contained.

[MontanaMama]

26. This is the earliest "R" named storm on record

after Paulette formed. So, it is a little unusual. No doubt there is more to come.

https://www.newsweek.com/tropical-storm-rene-becomes-earliest-ever-r-named-storm-busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-1530368

[misanthrope]

36. Sorry, I'm talking about the number of simultaneous systems

I should have been more clear.

The thing you mention about how far down the roster of names they are is certainly unusual. I think 2005 was the most active, with nearly 30 storms but this year's "early 'R'" is an aspect of the season ramping up earlier. That, too, is an aspect of climate change.

[Delmette2.0]

15. I have always had a sort of soft spot for New Orleans.

I have visited twice and my children were visiting their father when one hurricane passed N.O. and headed for Texas. My ex was also there and barely escaped Katrina across the Pontchartrain bridge, an hour later sections collapsed.

Be safe everyone.

[eleny]

16. They're flying off Cape Verde like popcorn

[ancianita]

17. Yesterday, on the middle west coast, heavy rains for hours. Today, sewage leaks.

The problem moves from winds and rain to sanitation. There is no drainage for heavy rains, and so any sewage leaks -- which have become common in monsoon season -- pollute all fresh waterways like Sarasota Bay and small lakes. There's no commercial fresh fishing because of contaminated fish. Fresh drinking water production gets more expensive.

One can only imagine the problems around the upper Gulf coasts.

[malaise]

19. Add poor drainage to that toxic mess

and it's chaos

[ancianita]

20. 'Holy shit' is right!

[spooky3]

21. Please stay safe, malaise. Nt

[malaise]

38. No danger up to now

Thanks

[misanthrope]

23. The forecasts I've seen don't call for it to get terribly strong

Tropical depression is the height of what I've seen. A cold front is due to swing into the Deep South in a few days' time and will likely keep it from coming ashore or strengthening much. Instead most of the central Gulf Coast will get a soaking for most of the next week.

Too bad we can't send the rain to the West Coast. They need it so much more than we do.

[malaise]

25. That's good news

Too bad we can't send the rain to the West Coast. Agree

[MontanaMama]

27. We're already to "P".

How many more of these monsters are lurking around the corner?

[roamer65]

28. Welcome to life at 500 ppm GHGs.

It just gets better from here.




And be safe, malaise.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

29. This is what "an active year" in tropical storms looks like and was forecast in the spring. . . . nt

[Silent3]

30. It will be completely in line with the clusterfuck that is 2020...

...if a major hurricane hits on election day, in Florida or some other important swing state.

Or maybe even a bunch of swing states all at once.

[AllaN01Bear]

31. someone on here yesterday stated that early on 2020 is going to be a wierd year weather wise .

and in the intermountain west we are on la nina year mode . hem. some places are already raining.

[turbinetree]

32. I just gotta to ask has there ever been a 100L invest on the books in one year

or a 115L invest...............

[ananda]

33. view

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

34. I think Mobile, AL must have pissed off the weather gods earlier in the week. n/t

[misanthrope]

37. Then Mobile must be good at doing so

This place averages 69 inches of rainfall per year, more than any other American city. We also got 1997's Hurricane Danny, which was barely hurricane strength but dropped a record-topping 37.75 inches of rain on the southern end of Mobile County. In town, we got something like 33 inches or so over the course of a day.

[malaise]

39. Another one