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BlueWavePsych

(2,635 posts)
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 05:33 PM Sep 2020

Why Trump's approval numbers may be soft

Donald Trump’s approval rating holds steady at just above 42 percent, but it’s likely not that many will vote for him come election day. Here’s why:

The 2020 election presents a very different picture. Republicans from every state have openly abandoned Trump. Many others will follow suit, though they may not confess it to pollsters now.

In the privacy of the voting booth or at home when voting by mail-in ballot, no one will see or need to know how a Trump supporter votes. There, the COVID-19 catastrophe, Trump’s habitual lying and his multiple failures and transgressions will likely outweigh the need to defend him. And just as Americans voted for Trump in 2016 after telling pollsters they wouldn’t, voters may very well vote for Joe Biden in 2020 after telling pollsters they’d vote for Trump.

The 2020 election presents a very different picture. Republicans from every state have openly abandoned Trump. Many others will follow suit, though they may not confess it to pollsters now.

In the privacy of the voting booth or at home when voting by mail-in ballot, no one will see or need to know how a Trump supporter votes. There, the COVID-19 catastrophe, Trump’s habitual lying and his multiple failures and transgressions will likely outweigh the need to defend him. And just as Americans voted for Trump in 2016 after telling pollsters they wouldn’t, voters may very well vote for Joe Biden in 2020 after telling pollsters they’d vote for Trump.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/516140-why-trumps-approval-numbers-may-be-soft

Secret Biden voters
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why Trump's approval numbers may be soft (Original Post) BlueWavePsych Sep 2020 OP
I would be besides myself with joy and relief if the Klansman's aggregate approval is 42% on 11/3. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2020 #1
I'm thinking low to mid 30s BlueWavePsych Sep 2020 #2
You remain optimistic. I won't be greedy. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2020 #5
Two days ago... Eyeball_Kid Sep 2020 #11
42% 538 approval on November 3 is what I am rooting for also Awsi Dooger Sep 2020 #14
Not sure I agree with this. It's people that support Trump that are likely to not admit it in publi JI7 Sep 2020 #3
A Thought On That ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #4
Rather embarrassed to ask but Karma13612 Sep 2020 #6
Puke in name only? Blecht Sep 2020 #7
President in Name Only ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #8
Ohh OK! Karma13612 Sep 2020 #9
Another factor I don't see mentioned - People gets tired of controversy. That happened in 2016. writes3000 Sep 2020 #10
Hillary's negatives were a lot higher than Biden's are now. Yavin4 Sep 2020 #12
Thx for posting...certainly a possibility Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #13

Eyeball_Kid

(7,431 posts)
11. Two days ago...
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 06:33 PM
Sep 2020

A reputable poll stated that among GOP voters, 6% switched to Biden after The Atlantic reported that Trump made the “suckers” and “losers” remarks about the military. And THAT was before the Woodward revelations were made public. Six percent movement means landslide.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. 42% 538 approval on November 3 is what I am rooting for also
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 08:51 PM
Sep 2020

I've posted that many times. It is a realistic goal, although if forced I would bet the over

Anything in the 30s is not realistic. I have no idea why so many cling to it

JI7

(89,248 posts)
3. Not sure I agree with this. It's people that support Trump that are likely to not admit it in publi
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 05:49 PM
Sep 2020

because he is obviously a shitty person.

ProfessorGAC

(65,010 posts)
4. A Thought On That
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 05:53 PM
Sep 2020

Yesterday there was a thread here on suburban R women defecting.
Stories included a husband raving about PINO and his plans to vote for him while the wife pointed to herself and shook her head, no.
Another about a woman who said she was not voting for PINO, even to keep the peace.
That ties to this Hill piece.
How many pollsters get an answer from a husband that both he & his wife plan to vote red, but the wife has no intention of doing so?
Even if that scenario occurs in 1 in 100 calls, it widens the gap by 2%.

ProfessorGAC

(65,010 posts)
8. President in Name Only
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 06:02 PM
Sep 2020

He's a mobster wannabe, so I tagged him with a mob-like nickname.
And it fits.
He isn't a real POTUS.
It's a take off on the RINO & DINO we've been seeing for 20+ years.

writes3000

(4,734 posts)
10. Another factor I don't see mentioned - People gets tired of controversy. That happened in 2016.
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 06:33 PM
Sep 2020

I think Hillary’s fake scandals exhausted people so they voted for Trump. It may not have been fair but I think it’s human nature.

This year, they’ll vote for Biden.

Yavin4

(35,438 posts)
12. Hillary's negatives were a lot higher than Biden's are now.
Sat Sep 12, 2020, 06:37 PM
Sep 2020

For a lot of voters, it was a 50/50 call, and given the Comey letter, that tilted them to Trump. With many voters thinking that Hillary would be under constant investigation during her presidency, and that Trump would grow into the job.

That voter in 2020 is voting for Biden.

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