Trump 'Red Mirage' Election Night Victory Is Unlikely, Political Scientists Say

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

A "red mirage" election victory for President Donald Trump is unlikely on 3 November, according to elections experts and a veteran Democratic strategist. Fears that Trump could appear to win in a landslide are apparently unfounded.

The possibility of a shock Trump victory on election night was floated by Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Hawkfish, a data and analytics firm funded by former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg which has done work for Democrats.

Mendelsohn told Axios on 1 September that Trump could appear to pull off a staggering victory on election night, only to lose days later once mail-in ballots are counted. However, this scenario has been seriously questioned.

Prof. Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek that Mendelsohn's prediction was unlikely.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-red-mirage-election-night-victory-is-unlikely-political-scientists-say/ar-BB191vLR?li=BBnb7Kz

[pandr32]

1. Good.

I don't know if my ticker would withstand a "red mirage".

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. All eyes will be on Florida Election Night

Unlike some other states who don’t tally absentees until after polls close, Florida tallies their absentee ballots as they are Received, so that results can be released immediately after the polls close.

If Biden takes a 5+% lead in the absentees, it will be hard for the networks to ignore or resist calling it. Trump can’t win without Florida.

Bloomberg’s $100 million will be vital.

[liskddksil]

7. And Texas which Biden is adding staff in today and will

report all early votes on election night.

[Skraxx]

9. No, We Don't Need Florida and we Should Plan to win Without it, Thankfully, We Can

Florida will be ratfucked from top to bottom. But we don't need it. If we win MI, WI and MN, that's the ball game right there. NC and AZ would be icing on the cake. Florida would be a cherry, but we can't count on it.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Agree completely! We shouldn't pin our hopes on FL..and we don't need to reach 270

[Skraxx]

11. Well, We Do Need 270, but we can do it without FL, thankfully

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Biden doesn't need FL, but Trump does - if Biden wins FL & PA, it's all over nt

[Skraxx]

18. Trump Won't Win PA, He Can't Ratfuck it Like FL, PA has Dem Governor

Yeah, if Biden wins FL it's all over, but we can't count on it. Biden has more routes to winning than Trump, that's for sure!

[not_the_one]

3. The turd knows the "red mirage" is fake.

More than likely, once the result is known, he will be reading about his EPIC loss from his personal plane, somewhere over the Atlantic.

It would be pointless for him to hang around for Pence to pardon him, since Pence can't pardon for state charges. Like everything else, he would just as soon leave the republican party in shambles. He doesn't give a shit. He will only be concerned with skipping the country to avoid criminal charges.

[spanone]

4. Is that the same as a 'Russian mirage'?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I have been saying this since it came out...

It's the media doing what the media does best.

[Wounded Bear]

16. Actually it is Trump gaslighting...

the media is just reporting what he says.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. No. The media was definitely pushing the idea.

Here's a post I made last Sunday on it:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214034217

[mzmolly]

6. I hope this is so.

I hope we're prepared either way.

[NightWatcher]

8. Thank you. Chances are he'll be losing on Election Night. That's what we've got to work on

If he never has a lead HE CANT HOLD THE LEAD and halt the counting.

[NewJeffCT]

12. I doubt there will be any sort of "red mirage"

I expect Biden to be ahead by small amounts in several swing states late evening Nov 3/early morning Nov 4 and that lead will be expanded as mail-in votes are tabulated.

At worst, it will be "too early to call" overnight, but Biden ahead. I think MI and PA will be called for Biden before mail-in votes and we'll see Biden ahead by small amounts in Florida, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin and NC. Trump will have a small lead or it will be a toss-up in Texas, Ohio, Iowa and GA.

After mail-in votes are counted, Biden's lead will be certain in the states in which he was leading and Biden may take one or two of Texas, Ohio, Iowa or Georgia.

So, change from 2016:
Biden picks up MI, WI, PA, NC, FL and AZ, and possibly GA, IA, OH or TX

[Bradshaw3]

13. Key takeaway from the article

"There is a big market in this country for stoking anxiety about the possibility that Trump might somehow pull this election out of the hat, and I regard this report as pandering to that anxiety, and nothing more," Stewart said.

Unfortunately too many buy into the anxiety.

[judeling]

14. Trump will be even helping us make people wait for Results

The entire Red Mirage relies on Trump votes being counted first, But in FL and NC and MN it is the absentee's that will mostly be available early and so even in a close race for those states Biden will be showing a lead. Tha means Trump will have to be out telling everyone to wait until the votes are all counted.