Trump is the incumbent not Biden

[Proud liberal 80]

I say that just to show I how poor Trump (as the incumbent) is doing in the polls. But every elections cycle the media is always asking what is wrong with the Democratic candidate

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Chainfire]

1. Truth be known, I wonder the same thing

Why is Biden, running against the worst president to ever serve, not ahead by twenty or thirty points?

[Polybius]

3. I think the days of any one Party polling 20 points ahead of the other are over

We are much more divided these days. As for 30 points ahead, no candidate has ever done that, not even George Washington or FDR.

[Chainfire]

6. You are right

but no party has ever faced such a political menace or such a dangerous president. That the election may be close is very frightening, because it tells us how many of our countrymen have Fascist tendencies, even if they don't know what Fascism is.

[exboyfil]

4. That is what Kerry said in 2004

when he wasn't pounding Bush into the dirt.

I notice the media didn't give Trump the Jimmy Carter treatment with the daily countdown for the hostages (in Trump's case it would be coronavirus deaths shown visibly). Every night Nightline would pound the administration for its Iran response. Nothing of the kind is on network television now.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Because even bad incumbents rarely lose badly.

H.W Bush lost by six nationally and Carter by 9.7.

I expect Biden's margin to be between that.

[Polybius]

7. Not rarely, never

Even Hoover didn’t lose by 20-30 points.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. No but he lost by nearly 20 points.

That's in line with the 20-30 points the post I was replying to.

I think a lot of people expect that level when it's a very rare exception.

[Amishman]

8. partizan divide. swing voters are down to maybe 10 or 15 % of the electorate

The gap between parties is wide enough now that 85-90% would never consider voting for the other side.

Since the immovables on each side seem to be roughly equal in number and are already extremely motivated to vote, it makes winning the remaining swing votes all the more important. It also makes those who do not agree with either party valuable as they are the other remaining place to get more votes.

[exboyfil]

2. Trump's minions, when it is convenient, think

Biden (and Obama) are the incumbents. Everything bad - them, Everything good - Trump.

Trump acts like he is both omnipotent or impotent which ever is more convenient at the time.

[Chainfire]

10. Well said

and I would add that they see no irony in being able to switch back and forth between omnipotent and impotent as the need arises.

Somehow, this election aside, we need to find some way to wean the people off the constant barrage of false information that the absorb like a sponge and to convince them apply a little logic and common sense to their lives. They seem to somehow need a daddy figure in not only their leader, but in their "news" presenters. It leaves them wide open to manipulation. They need to find someone that they can respect that can give them bad news and not call it fake news.

Some proportion of the Trumpers could be saved if they only had a functioning bullshit meter.