It's weird how the media treats Ohio.

[Drunken Irishman]

Currently, Biden leads by 2.4 in an average of polls there on RCP and yet the narrative is that this state will go Trump because, well, it went Trump four years ago. I kind of get thinking Ohio is still a strong Trump bet but how many statewide polls either show it a dead heat, or a Biden lead, does it take before the media really starts questioning the viability of the Trump campaign there?

I hear a lot of the media squawk about Florida and Pennsylvania and the like but rarely is Ohio mentioned. Do they just dismiss the polls from there - and if so, how can they not dismiss other state polls then?

Granted, OH has been under-polled this cycle (an oddity with how frequently it was polled the last four presidential elections), but I think that goes to the point of this post: why has the media, and pollsters, conceded Ohio?

Has Biden? Are these narrow polls fools gold for the campaign and they expect a surge of support for Trump there like four years ago (Trump only led by 2.2 points in the average of final polls and won the state by 8)?

Is that sizable Trump margin the reason?

And if so, why are the polls so far off in Ohio...or are they?

[Skraxx]

1. GOP Governor, It Will Be Ratfucked, We Have to Win Without it

[Drunken Irishman]

2. GOP governor in 2012 too.

I doubt the media is avoiding Ohio because of that reason...or we might as well concede Florida and Arizona for these same reasons.

[Skraxx]

4. Florida Yes, AZ Maybe

Don't know why the media is avoiding Ohio, haven't noticed. I just know that we need to plan to win without it. FL too. Thankfully we can do it if we win MI, WI and MN (thankfully all Dem governors).

[grantcart]

16. AZ is moving out of reach for Trump

They withdrew their advertising but claim they are coming back

Trump won Maricopa County by 5 now behind by 12


At the last primary Arpaio lost the Republican primary


There are 3 different "Republicans for Biden" PACS, one has real money.

Trump only got 49% in AZ in 2016.

Biden is well known for befriending McCain and was close to the family when he died.

Kelly is pounding McSally.

AZ is much more likely to flip than FL IMO

[Skraxx]

17. Oh, Yeah, Agreed!

[rufus dog]

3. Doesn't fit the narrative

Many think it is due to always wanting a horse race, if that was the case then we would see Ohio stories.

It is because they want to (told to) focus on Dem issues. Have had MSNBC on for less than 30 minutes. First some FL Rep who kept using the term Socialists, Bernie Sanders bad, Dems can't be taken over by the far left fringe, then another segment on what is wrong with Biden and the Hispanic support in Florida.

Now that fits the narrative they are trying to push.

[Sherman A1]

5. Turn off the cable noise

And you’ll be much better off.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I don't generally watch cable news. But thanks.

[beachbumbob]

7. Biden has an execellent chance to win Ohio, goes back to turn out

this isn't 2016 with "protest vote" against Hillary

[grantcart]

14. No this is 2020 and in Ohio I think it will be a Goodyear

[beachbumbob]

15. trump had his inner hate of american workers got out with that attack.

people gotta realize the contempt of the military is NO different than the contempt of 99.9% of america. Trump would not be caught dead with his supporters under any scenarios outside of bringing his whooper to him or at they giving him money

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. It happens here too.

I recently saw a poster declare that Ohio is a red state, not a swing state.

Yet the aggregation of polls at 538 have indicated the Presidential race is closer in Ohio than any other state other than NC.

States like Georgia and Texas are polling less favorably for Biden, but get mentioned in posts far more often. I've seen posters list a group of swing states, such as GA and TX, but OH is completely omitted.

[samplegirl]

9. I think Ohio

is out numbered by Trumpers!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

10. It's very close in Ohio.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ohio/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls/ohio

The polling is closer than states like GA, IA, TX, etc.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. Reminds me of polling of the most hated college teams...

... around the country, and seeing that Ohio State was somehow the most hated among the Northeastern states despite almost no major college football teams in those areas.

Not some Southern school like Alabama whose fans often despise the "Yankees" of that region.

[pecosbob]

12. Uhmmm...because Republicans in Ohio are ratfuckers?

Voting tabulators are routinely diddled...ask Karl Rove. They want your attention elsewhere.

[grantcart]

13. I happen to believe that for Ohio 2020 will be a Good Year

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Long term demographic trends are not favorable in Ohio

In contrast to other states that are close this cycle, like Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Georgia. It is same reason you also don't see much discussion about Iowa.

States without high minority numbers, and with large blocks of working class whites, have shifted toward the GOP and without huge growing urban centers there's nothing logical to reel them back it.

The fact that they are so-called swing states this time doesn't mean a heck of a lot. Many states are suddenly in play when the national margin is 8 points or thereabouts. That hardly means they are swing states at base instinct and amidst a balanced national landscape. We've become spoiled in 2018 and 2020 with huge generic margins in the 8+ range. It's hardly going to be that way forever. If Biden wins then 2022 shifts back in the other direction, just like every first term midterm.

The nation has 9% more conservatives than liberals. Florida is a swing state because it is always slightly right of the nation in that category. Never fails. Florida had 11% more conservatives than liberals in 2016. The cynicism toward Florida here and elsewhere is truly laughable. Ohio in 2016 had 19% more conservatives than liberals. That is an entirely different level of despair. No cynicism needed. That state is gone long term. Anti-Trump might rescue one cycle but overall irrelevant.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Thanks but that didn't answer my point.

I'm not talking long-term. I am talking less than two-months from now. Pennsylvania, and even Wisconsin, are likely two states that, long-term, will be trending GOP but we're still talking about them this election season.

My point is that Ohio is as close THIS election as North Carolina or Florida and gets less than half the coverage. I'm curious why the media has written it off despite the polls pointing to a close race.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

21. People apparently think Ohioans have all become...

... addicted to opiates and fly the Confederate flag now, chock-full of uneducated people who are totally dependent on lost "Rust Belt" jobs.

I'm relieved that people from media centers like N.Y. or L.A. understand this area so much better than people who live here!

Focusing on long-term trends is silly when we need to focus on removing Trump NOW! Not to mention that "trends" are not immutable over time.

And Ohio is still less conservative than Texas and Georgia according to Gallup, as reported by CBS recently:
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/how-liberal-or-conservative-is-your-state/

By the way, Iowa has slightly less conservative/liberal differential than Ohio according to that poll. Yet it's not polling as well for Biden right now, and that should be more important.

I'm thankful that Biden does not NEED Ohio to win, but it doesn't hurt to pursue the lowest-hanging fruit to pad the victory... which seems to be Ohio more than other "trending states" in 2020!

[former9thward]

20. Look at the internals of the polls

They are polling registered voters not likely voters. Far cheaper to poll registered voters. Republicans tend to pick up 3 - 5% when likely voters are polled. They will start polling likely voters as Election Month nears. OH may slip out of reach then. The campaigns and media are aware of this polling phenomenon.

[mackdaddy]

22. I live in rural SE Ohio. I did GOTV calls on election day 2016.

I was calling a list of registered Democrats, and the results were very disappointing. There were many if not most that were "oh-well" or "ho-hum" just Hillary, they could not be bothered. I knew we were in trouble that day.

On the positive side, I don't think that anyone who has half a brain and are Democrats think that this time. Biden is honest and competent, Trump is now a demonstrated lying fuckwit. I expect many of these fence sitters to at least vote this time.

On the negative side, it seems like I live in a sea of Trumpie flags. These are often people in the lower 20% on income but they have a dish and Fox nuze even on their broken down single wide. We have some educated people out here in the boonies, but the best bet is still in the cities for Democratic votes. The democratic party was pretty underwhelming from what volunteering I did in 2016. The County and State Democratic party offices were actually in some kind of conflict and not even working together. I have not done much this year because of Covid so I can't comment of whether they got it together this time.

I hope the polls are right and we can pull Ohio blue.

We do now have a different voting system. This Primary this year, the crappy Diebold touchy screens were gone and we now have fill in the bubble paper ballots you feed into a scanner. Maybe they are better. The paper registration books are gone though, and everything is looked up on a tablet computer.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

23. I was so relieved when Obama won the nomination in 2008...

... because I knew that anyone named Clinton would struggle in Ohio. And Obama indeed won Ohio both times.

Ohio didn't fare as well as other states during Bill Clinton's two terms, and he received much of the blame... fair or not.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. I definitely think Biden plays better in Ohio than Clinton.

Of course, he'll have to defend NAFTA, which Obama didn't really have to because it happened years before he was in the senate. On the flip side, Biden has the luxury of discussing the auto industry, so, maybe that cancels things out a bit.

I think many in the media believe that because Hillary struggled so badly there, Biden is sure to, as well, forgetting that Biden is doing better with whites than Hillary in 2016.

I'm not sure it'll be enough to win the state but I think it could prove a surprise on election night.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

26. The polls indicate a closer race than some "trending" states.

I definitely think Biden can win here!

I live in one of the most purple areas of the state (Montgomery County), and I'm not seeing nearly as many Trump signs like in 2016.

[grantcart]

24. Compare the turnout for Democrats in 2018

This election will be the Republican turnout of 2016

and

The Democratic turnout of 2018

The one thing we have going in our favor is the idiotic hubris of Trump.

If we take Ohio by a few thousand it will be because of his idiotic statements about Goodyear.


It didn't help him in AZ where Goodyear also has a long tradition and even has a city of 70k named after it.

He should just come out and tell everyone that he hates puppies and apple pie.

Is there any demographic that was up for grabs and just waiting for him to insult Goodyear?

"The whole thing about the kids in cages and grabbing pussy and insulting our military really made me reconsider my vote but when I heard him launch a boycott of Goodyear tires I was 100% back because I am a Michelin man because when I buy tires I prefer French over American".