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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCook: Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected
But this is also why those who are convinced that he will make a spectacular comeback are likely to be wrong as well. His standing is impervious to events. The vast majority of voters decided a long time ago whether they liked him or not, whether they would approve of his actions, and whether they would support his candidacy. For many voters, this cake is baked.
As for those who keep coming back to the nostrum that he won four years ago, proved everyone wrong, and can do it again: They ignore that this time, he doesnt have Hillary Clinton as an opponent. While Clinton is an incredibly bright and accomplished person, she accumulated an enormous amount of political baggage during her quarter century on the national stage. Until the #MeToo movement arrived, her husband went through his career as if he had a Teflon coatingnothing stuck to him. But Hillary was Velcro; seemingly everything stuck to her.
Comparing how Hillary Clinton was perceived in the 2016 campaign with Biden now defies logic. The CNN poll taken at the beginning of September 2016 showed Clinton with 41 percent of registered voters giving her a favorable rating and 57 percent giving her an unfavorable rating, for a net favorability of -16 percent. Trump showed a 42-percent-favorable, 56-percent-unfavorable split, for a -14 net rating. The new CNN poll gives Biden a 48-percent-favorable, 43-percent-unfavorable rating for a net of plus-5 points. Trumps current numbers are 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorablea net -16 points.
Obviously, we are talking about anticipating human behavior, which is always problematic. But given that voting has already begun in some states, Trump does not even have 54 days to make a comeback. Similarly, an October Surprise may need to happen in mid-September for it to have any impact. It is a good bet that a lot of votes will be cast before that first debate on Sept. 29.
I understand the caution that many in my business have after the surprising outcome in 2016, but the only way this year resembles 2020 is that they both are presidential years, Trump is the Republican nominee, and both years begin with a 2. Thats it. Alan Greenspans irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-ceiling-too-low-him-be-reelected
a kennedy
(29,642 posts)A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING.
I am to hear the collective screams across the planet
You're fucking fired!
bhikkhu
(10,714 posts)I'd go on about my day. "It is what it is".
Of course that won't happen, but I'd be happy (and also somewhat more realistic about human nature) if people had to hide the crazy again, if it weren't ok to hate in public, and if all that hatred and crazy shit were no longer a part of our civil government.
Demovictory9
(32,443 posts)machoneman
(4,006 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,750 posts)elleng
(130,825 posts)that tends to be me.
still_one
(92,110 posts)I find it interesting when Wall Street analysts, especially from JP Morgan push that dont be surprised if trump wins, as tough they have some magical insight that no one else has
Yavin4
(35,427 posts)Collect your data. Process it. Make your analysis. Show your work.
still_one
(92,110 posts)protests, and internet betting sites
Pure garbage analysis
FakeNoose
(32,610 posts)Poiuyt
(18,122 posts)Yavin4
(35,427 posts)Everyone else is hedging like mad because they're too afraid of being wrong on election night which makes their analysis worthless.
The weatherman whose forecast always calls for a 50% chance of rain is a terrible weatherman.
Wanderlust988
(509 posts)and has never come across with any biases. He's very careful too in his analyses and predictions. I agree with him that Trump's numbers are way too low to win without a third party candidate. Biden is close to, at, or over 50% in nearly every good poll I've seen. All Biden has to do is win 2-3% of the undecided vote and he'll get Obama's numbers in 2008 or more. This isn't nuclear science.
BannonsLiver
(16,342 posts)Anyone who has followed his career knows that hes not prone to hyperbole.
Blue Owl
(50,325 posts)n/t
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)be re-elected. If he ever wins a fair and secure election it'll be the first time.
BigmanPigman
(51,582 posts)and now he is paying trolls in the US (teens even), Putin has gotten better at sowing division, questions in election interference by the GOP and USPS, Fakebook spreading BS more than ever, etc. Americans are still as gullible/clueless as 2016 if not more so. I hope for the best and prepare for the worse.
yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)Sounds good to me.
Al
Martin Eden
(12,859 posts)As in voter suppression, sabotage of the Postal Service, and other forms of cheating.
radius777
(3,635 posts)who are looking it from 2 dimensional view, based only on numbers.
It's why we have to play the game as if it's tied and not rest on any lead we may (or may not) have.
We can't give up on trying to improve our message, reach out to all groups (such as Latinos and young people) who may not be as strongly behind us as we would like.
Because Trump/Barr/Russians/etc will do anything to retain power... anything.
Celerity
(43,249 posts)Shoonra
(518 posts)The only poll that really matters is on November 3rd and Trump might still pull a rabbit out of the hat.
On Nov. 3, go and vote even if you have ro crawl through broken glass!
TheDemsshouldhireme
(172 posts)and a PA resident in deep red part. Two things give me hope, looking at 2016 3rd party candidates got 200k votes in PA in 16, dont see that happening this year, hard to see Biden not got more of those votes than Trump. Also seeing more Biden signs by the day.
Quixote1818
(28,926 posts)BootinUp
(47,135 posts)Hillary wasn't as bad of a candidate as he paints. The truth is that glass ceiling in this country is pretty damn thick. Lots of thick heads around too.
Quixote1818
(28,926 posts)honest.abe
(8,649 posts)but I think what Cook is saying is if Trump cant get break out of the low 40's nationally then he simply can't win enough states to win the election. Of course this election is very different from any other so I suppose its possible for Trump to win by a hair in those few key states and get slaughtered in the other blue states which could result in losing the popular vote by a large (> 5%) percent. Not likely but possible.
Cha
(297,029 posts)the gutter.. slowly slowly Slowly.. until election day. Boom
Beartracks
(12,806 posts)Sorry, just needed to be said.
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NNadir
(33,509 posts)...over to the Hague.
TallMike
(161 posts)As a hair on fire lib-tard in a very, very red part of California, All I see is Trump this and Trump that. Antifa are collectively organizing and starting the fires. And OMG, the gooks, chinks, flips, women, gays, horse rustlers, claim jumpers and, wait for it... THE NIGGERS!
Never underestimate the power of sheer ignorance my friends.
Never...
OverBurn
(950 posts)summer_in_TX
(2,727 posts)A Republican friend (well longtime friendly acquaintance) in my small town was on the local community radio station talking to Matthew Dowd, a pollster who once worked for George W. Bush and is a regular on ABC with George Stephanopoulos. He lives here and about once a week unless he's away he spends an hour talking about this and that including the political situation.
The Republican (retired military brass) who has a weekly breakfast group they call the "Deplorables" that meets at a local café, mentioned how much he enjoys lying to pollsters. Blew Matthew Dowd's mind.
That's the situation I worry about. Those who actively distort the polling. I don't know (but have my suspicions) that is more likely done by Republicans than Dems.
struggle4progress
(118,268 posts)BadgerMom
(2,770 posts)oasis
(49,365 posts)machoneman
(4,006 posts)bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)Take a close look at the new Fox News poll, tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.
This race is OVER.
https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301082-respected-election-handicapper-calls-election-for-hillary
The moral of the story : PLEASE DON'T TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED!!
honest.abe
(8,649 posts)Still makes me ill thinking about it.