MT-AG moves from 'Tossup' to 'Lean Republican'
This seat is coming open because two-term incumbent Tim Fox ran for governor (though he ended up losing the GOP primary to Rep. Greg Gianforte). In the Republican primary, former state House speaker Austin Knudsen, who had the support of the party's conservative base, defeated chief deputy attorney general Jon Bennion, a pragmatist who was seen as a stronger general-election candidate, by a somewhat bigger-than-expected margin. The Democrats, meanwhile, nominated Raph Graybill, the chief counsel to outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock, over attorney and state Rep. Kim Dudik. The 31-year-old Graybill has a sterling resume — a Rhodes scholarship and a Yale Law degree — and he comes from a prominent Montana political family.
Will Graybill be able to peel off some disaffected Bennion supporters? He'll try, and while Montana remains a red state, the fact that Bullock (himself a former Montana AG) is running to unseat GOP Sen. Steve Daines could energize Democratic turnout this fall. Graybill has also been putting up some impressive fundraising numbers, although support from the national GOP may be able to boost Knudsen.
On balance, when both candidates are relatively unknown in Montana, the edge traditionally goes to the Republican, because there are more Republican voters in the state, and when voters don't know the candidates, they tend to default to those from their own party. In addition, Knudsen is focusing his campaign on law enforcement, including the fight against meth, which has become a significant problem in the state. Graybill, by contrast, has been focusing more on drug prices, public-lands access, and voter registration. Knudsen's message, to the extent it's getting out, may end up packing a more urgent punch with voters.
Montana is awash in competitive races this year, and while the Democrats could potentially win any of them, there's no sign yet of a massive anti-Republican wave that would carry the party to victory in each of those races. While this contest could drift back to Toss Up in the coming weeks, we're moving it to Lean Republican for now.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/attorney-general/september-update-handicapping-2020-attorney-general-elections
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