ABC news Minnesota and Wisconsin polls

[Proud liberal 80]

Link to tweet

[Submariner]

1. Minnesotans are no fools

They know under the Trump climate change policy ICE FISHING WILL END FOREVER, but Biden will do what ever he can to make the sport go on for generations to come.

Tell Minnesotans Trump is going to take their lake ice away, and they will go crazy and definitely vote blue.

[CaptYossarian]

8. Trump went ice fishing once.

By the time he cut the ice big enough for the boat, it was too dark.

[BainsBane]

14. There are rabid Trump supporters in MN

outside of the Twin Cities. Some people out state say that they face violent threats if they speak against Trump.

The farmers are still supporting him. I have zero sympathy for them. Trump fucked up their livelihood with his trade wars, yet they still fall in line.

[the_sly_pig]

17. Farmers still getting welfare checks?

That's likely the reason. I used to think Minnesotans were generally the same. DFL (Democratic FARMER Labor) party and State republicans were closer rather than further apart. Then I traveled to out state. I no longer think we're similar.

[geardaddy]

19. Yep, and not that far outside the metro

All the MPD that live in the ex-urbs

[Johnny2X2X]

2. A+ rated polls

ABC/WAPO is one of the gold standard polls.

[Laelth]

3. Wisconsin sounds about right.

Minnesota is a bit shocking. But I’ll take it.

-Laelth

[BainsBane]

16. Trump came within 1.5 points of winning MN in 2016.

That was shocking.

[BAnthony]

4. Good polls

These are good polls but i have been watching that damn usc dornsife poll and it is giving me a heart attack. He went from a 11 pt lead to 7 in a few days. He had a 14 point lead a couple of weeks. I realize Biden was not going to win by 14, but damn not liking that trend at all. It indicates we are losing some urban voters. Seriously look at that trend.

[Proud liberal 80]

5. It's funny you mention that poll

Because Real Clear Politics wasn’t including that poll in its polling average, now that it is going down they are including it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[dawg]

6. And yet, they include Trafalgar.

[Fla Dem]

10. Rasmussen poll is an outlier & shouldn't be included.

Without it, average lead for Biden would be 7.1.

[Norbert]

7. chump thought he had a chance in Minnesota

Kiss it goodbye dude.

[pazzyanne]

9. He was basing that "thought" on his rally in Duluth.

He was drawing people from Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, and North Dakota as well as Minnesotans there. My sister and some of her friends drove over 5 1/2 hours for that rally. It was not a strictly Minnesota rally.

I am hoping that Minnesota holds firm against him!

[getagrip_already]

11. he isn't trying to actually win any longer... he is only trying to

come up with excuses to disallow the results and stay in power.

There isn't any other explanation. His campaign has pulled ads in nevada - a state he just this week said he could win. They aren't just not buying ad time, they are canceling time they have already reserved. The networks must be demanding payment up front.

So he is going through motions and will claim he had super high levels of support which

were overwhelmed through voter fraud and vote fixing.

Remember, he accuses others of what he is actually doing.

We need to run up the score as far as possible. Redouble the turnout. Monitor the shit put of polling places and keep their thugs from disrupting the vote. We need every vote we can find.

No protests. No staying home because of reasons. I don't care if you disike the ticket. This is not a case of both sides suck, so it doesn't matter.

People need to realize this my be the last presidential election they ever get to vote in that can make a difference. We will end up with putin style elections. With a trump party candidate and a hand picked weak opponent and votes watched by party officials.

That isn't hyperbole.

[Lonestarblue]

13. I think you're right.

His likely strategy is to create so many lawsuits and chaos around mail-in ballots that final state counts cannot be made by the deadline to select EC electors. If he is able to throw the election to the House of Representatives, he wins—assuming every Republican state representative votes for him. The only ones who might not are Maryland and Massachusetts, bth of which are blue states with Republican governors, in which case it might result in a tie. I have no clue what happens then, but I guess it would go to the Republican Supreme Court and I assume they would appoint Trump as president.

One of the ways Trump mentioned disqualifying mail ballots was if they had no postal stamp with the date on them. Obviously, ballots put in an official drop box will have no such stamp. I hope state election officials are having election clerks stamp ballots with the date they were picked up from drop boxes to eliminate this potential issue.

[lastlib]

21. With tRump, that's a good strategy.

The networks must be demanding payment up front.

I'd never deal with the basturd, but I was advising anybody else, I would INSIST on payment up front. Or bye-bye.

[Auggie]

12. Polls are fun to talk to about, but they're not votes

“It ain’t over till it’s over” — Yogi Berra

“I’m smarter than the average bear”— Yogi Bear

[oldsoftie]

18. All true, but if these numbers hold up late Oct, I'll feel much more certain.

Especially +16%! Thats such a large lead it DOES make me a bit suspicious of the polling

ETA: Well crap; I read Minnesota but thought Michigan. Never mind.......

[Auggie]

23. I do get it: polls provide us with hope. We desperately need it.

It's just that the Electoral College makes POTUS elections less easy to predict.

[oldsoftie]

25. I kinda feel the opposite.

We have SO many states that are reliably one way or the other; i.e. what are the chances of California voting Trump? It boils down to maybe 5-6 states that end up going one way or the other. And Trump only won by a handful last time; approx 88k votes over 3 states. So Dems get THOSE 3 and its all over for him

Unless the race is just out of reach from the start, like Reagan & Clinton's 2nd term. But Trump is nowhere NEAR those numbers

[MarianJack]

15. Minnesota is pretty reliably blue.

The only time since Ike that it went Republican was in 1972, and even then it was the final state called.

I remember the morning after the election hoping that it would be called for McGovern so that would be minimally less catastrophic, but, alas.

McGovern had the wisdom to know that there are much worse things that could happen in life than losing an election. Unfortunately he experienced many of them.

#notmypresident

RESIST

[ooky]

20. Looks like he may as well pull his lying ads in MN

if he hasn't already. They ain't swallowing it.

[GopherGal]

24. Western Wisconsin?

I was wondering to what extent Twin Cities and Duluth media buys target western Wisconsinites. Even if Minnesota is a marginal swing state, buying ads in the two major media markets in Minnesota does at least get you some eyeballs in a neighboring certain-swing state.

[Yavin4]

22. We are closer to a massive Biden blowout than a close race.

OH is the key. It's a red-swing state which means that it leans conservative but not crazy conservative. That state seems to be moving towards Biden which means national blowout.