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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFiveThirtyEight: PA "Looks Like" Most Important State for 2020 Election
Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election, is the opening sentence in an article published by FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday morning highlighting the importance of Pennsylvania for the presidential election.
The article titled, Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election, written by Nathaniel Rakich is the latest in a series of articles taking a deep dive into the importance of each swing state for the 2020 presidential election.
Rakich points to FiveThirtyEights presidential forecast as proof that the Keystone State may be the determining state of who will win the presidency and is being dubbed a tipping-point state.
According to FiveThirtyEights presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state, Rakich writes. In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.
https://www.politicspa.com/fivethirtyeight-pa-looks-like-most-important-state-for-2020-election/95819/
mucifer
(23,478 posts)much as any other damn vote from any other damn state!
Demovictory9
(32,421 posts)Renew Deal
(81,844 posts)If Biden wins MN, WI, MI, but loses PA, AZ, NC, OH, then Trump wins.
RDANGELO
(3,432 posts)Trump needs to win both Floridan and Pennsylvania.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)Hed need MI, WI, and one of the two extra EVs from ME or NE.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/3XlQN
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)As soon as I looked at those education numbers from Pew a few weeks ago. The state is less educated than other key states and has many, many more working class whites for Trump to try to get to the polls than either Wisconsin or Michigan. I read somewhere that 2.1 million non-college whites from Pennsylvania did not vote in 2016 compared to 800,000 in Wisconsin.
These are the education numbers by state, with no-college in the first column and college graduate in the second column:
Michigan: 30/38
Pennsylvania: 35/36
Wisconsin: 31/37
Florida: 31/36
North Carolina: 31/38
Georgia: 33/36
Iowa: 30/35
Arizona: 23/40
Texas: 27/41
Ohio is worst of all at 37/34 but we are not dependent on Ohio