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Fri Sep 18, 2020, 06:48 AM

 

We have a 58% chance of gaining control of the senate

According to 538, I like those odds compared to other years
Where Republicans had the advantage in these forecasts before.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

12 replies, 743 views

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Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply We have a 58% chance of gaining control of the senate (Original post)
Hero57 Sep 18 OP
FBaggins Sep 18 #1
Maxheader Sep 18 #2
Doodley Sep 18 #3
Sherman A1 Sep 18 #4
2naSalit Sep 18 #5
Norbert Sep 18 #6
fescuerescue Sep 18 #7
honest.abe Sep 18 #8
fescuerescue Sep 18 #12
Amishman Sep 18 #9
Tanuki Sep 18 #10
Thekaspervote Sep 18 #11

Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 06:52 AM

1. I'm surprised that it's that low

And I thought that I was more pessimistic than most.

On edit - Ah... but another 15% or so that it's 50/50... which would have the same effect if Biden wins.

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 06:57 AM

2. That would be nice...



Look what Obama got done with a completely blue congress...

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 06:58 AM

3. Oh gee! I thought we were doing better than that.

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 07:19 AM

4. I am happy to hear that, but wish the odds were higher

I really want every republican running to suffer a soul crushing defeat.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 08:58 AM

5. +1

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:02 AM

6. I was hoping it would be higher

There are more variables than in the presidential percentages so I guess that may account for it.

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:05 AM

7. I heard it was 59.247%

Seriously though.

I get suspicious when they come up with such exact percentages for something as subjective as peoples opinions (voting habits)

As humans we really have not mastered politics this precisely.

But it's still good odds I suppose.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:15 AM

8. That number is just the result of some complex algorithm so it has to be an exact value...

but I'm sure there is a large confidence interval probably around +/- 10 points.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 02:14 PM

12. Well that's my point

It's an old trick. Use an odd number to make it sound like it's very firm and precise.

But when in reality, it has a 20 point spread.

Elections are decided on 2% to 5%. A result with a 20 point variation is worse than next months weather forecast.

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:19 AM

9. Seems about right

As I see it, we are very likely to win in AZ, CO, ME, and NC. Also likely to lose the AL race.

That puts us at 50 seats, plus with a very likely Biden win, it is control

I don't see Iowa or either Georgia race as likely. Trump will have rural turnout high and there are a lot of conservatives in those states. Soil conditions just a little too unfavorable to grow a Blue spruce.

MI race has tightened up recently, and I am not convinced the pollster's models are well tuned for that state after the 2016 surprise. Still think we are very strong favorites there, but not guaranteed.

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Response to Amishman (Reply #9)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:23 AM

10. South Carolina is definitely in play. Multiple recent polls show Jaime Harrison

and Lindsay Graham in a dead heat, e.g. 48 to 48. We just need to convince that 4%, and GOTV like their lives depend upon it.

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Response to Hero57 (Original post)

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:47 AM

11. Princeton consortium, jhk forecasts gives it a higher number.. middle low 60s

Sure hope so...we need the senate for SCOTUS!!

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