CO-03 moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean" Republican
The 3rd CD takes in all of Colorado's rural Western Slope, including the Grand Junction area, where Boebert won her entire margin of victory in the primary. Its voting patterns are deeply polarized between conservative ranch towns and wealthy, liberal ski towns like Aspen and Steamboat Springs. It also includes Pueblo, a considerably Hispanic and traditionally Democratic steel mill county that flipped to Trump in 2016.
There is a precedent for Democrats winning here: in 2004, John Salazar (former Sen. Ken Salazar's brother) captured this seat and held it for three terms before losing to Tipton in the 2010 GOP wave. But Salazar was a Hispanic rancher who ran as a conservative Democrat. Mitsch Bush will emphasize her ranch conservation efforts, but she likely sports the wrong profile to win new converts.
Boebert's reputation among Democrats as a "QAnon candidate" has proven a fundraising windfall for Mitsch Bush, who has already bought $1.8 million of fall ads. But Boebert's profile has also risen in the conservative world since her primary triumph, and should be well-funded herself. Moreover, the conservative Club for Growth has endorsed Boebert and will likely spend whatever it takes to ensure she wins.
At the moment, both parties agree neither candidate is at 50 percent and both candidates are about to get much better-known for better or worse. But Boebert remains the favorite. The race moves from Likely Republican to the Lean Republican column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/colorado-house/rating-change-boeberts-path-gets-rockier-co-03-moves-lean-republican
