ME-02: Golden moves from 'Toss Up' to 'Lean Democrat'
n 2018, Golden proved an ideal challenger for this blue-collar district: a 36-year-old Marine veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, he once worked for GOP Sen. Susan Collins before being elected to the state legislature as a Democrat. This cycle he's raised more than $2.8 million, which he's used to dominate cheap Maine markets with catchy ads playing up his support for gun rights, lobster fishermen and union shipbuilding jobs at Bath Iron Works.
Meanwhile, former GOP state Rep. Dale Crafts, 61, won the June GOP primary with 45 percent in a three-way field. Crafts, who was paralyzed from the waist down in a 1983 motorcycle accident, was known as an ultra-conservative in the legislature and had rabble-rousing former GOP Gov. Paul LePage's support in the primary. But Crafts had just $32,000 on hand at the end of June and will be colossally outspent.
But most of all, Crafts isn't getting the help he was counting on from Trump at the top of the ticket. Last week, a bipartisan Fabrizio/Hart poll taken for AARP (this is one of the nation's oldest districts) showed Biden winning the 2nd CD 49 percent to 45 percent with Golden ahead 53 percent to 40 percent. And a new Quinnipiac Poll shows Biden leading by an even wider 53 percent to 44 percent in the 2nd CD.
It's unclear Republicans will follow through on their spending plans unless Trump's numbers improve. One of the outside spenders here earlier this year, the Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom PAC, actually went negative on Crafts in the primary trying in vain to assist their endorsee, Eric Brakey, in the primary. Now it may be too late for Crafts to right the ship. The race moves from Toss Up to the Lean Democratic column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/maine-house/rating-change-golden-builds-advantage-me-02-moves-lean-democratic
