Did anyone hear Charlie Cook on Lawrence O'Donnell's show last night?
Charlie says Biden will win and he has many solid reasons to say that. It was all good news with very few "cautions" to worry about.
But it occurs to me that there may have been some whistling past the graveyard.
There will be Russian cheating. That's pretty much a certainty. Our GOTV efforts will matter. Turnout REALLY matters. Our wins have to massive, not tight squeakers. Our lawyers will be watching things closely on election day(s). That's good news, too. Our side is quite likely a lot more aware of what they're looking for. But few media people seem to be talking about this. It could be the DNC and the Biden campaign are staying mum on any strategy. It could be. I'm pretty sure our side is willing to put any and all necessary post election fights to be sure counts are all inclusive and fair. I'm sure we will fight voter suppression.
And what about the near certainty that TrumpBarr will sprinkle lawsuits like pixie dust on any location where Biden is ahead? Presumably there is another army of lawyers ready for that. Right?
Charlie's main thrust is that 2020 is NOT 2016. His caution was that thinking of it as 2016 V2 would be the mistake. Structurally, Biden almost can't lose at this point. He is over 50% and Trump is at his 42% ceiling. That's a huge gap to overcome.
Cheating, however, can game the Electoral College pretty much like it did in 2016.
And that worries me.
This will not be over until it is. Until Joe Biden, with Jill beside him, swears on that bible on the west face of the Capitol.
I feel like we will get there. But that doesn't stop me from being nervous. Maybe it's some PTSD. Maybe it's some political overload. Maybe it's chaos fatigue. Maybe the Covid lockdown is distorting perceptions.
Logically, I see us winning. But my gut is really jumpy.
How you feeling?
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