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[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Welcome, discerning poster.

[betsuni]

3. K&R

[marble falls]

4. To make it easier, here's the non tweet version ...

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
One of the perverse consequences of the MSM horror at Trump is that they have spent 3 1/2 years in terrified over-estimate of Trump's political strength and anguished poking at Democratic weaknesses.

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
Now it's mid-September of presidential election year and everybody remembers to do arithmetic. "Wait a minute ... 100% minus 40% = .... a lot more!"

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
Day in, day out, for nearly 4 years, Trump has been the most unpopular first-term president in the history of opinion polling.

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
The anti-Trump ceiling has been as hard and unyielding as the pro-Trump floor - and a lot bigger. And that was *before* Trump drove US society and the US economy into the worst catastrophe since the Great Depression.

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
We're dealing with probabilities of course, not certainties. But in 2020, it's much less probable that Trump repeats his fluke win of 2016 than that the whole ball game is over by 10 pm, with Florida called for Biden and the Senate already Blue after Collins and Tillis lose.

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
The fact that 40% of Americans tolerated Trump's wrongdoing -and that so many GOP leaders actively connived at it - will remain a huge ethical and political problem for US society. But it's not a basis for a presidential victory in a high turnout year.

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
6h
Trump in 2016 got a little more of the vote than Michael Dukakis in 1988. In 2020, Trump will probably get a smaller share of the vote than Dukakis did. Freakish as the Electoral College is, there's a limit on its ability to produce negative miracles for electoral minorities.

[FakeNoose]

5. Let's remind ourselves, there were a lot of undecideds in 2016

So many voters went to the polls on election day 2016, and they went "eeny-meany-miney-moe"! Chump got a bunch more of those undecideds than Hillary did, and we all know the reasons why.

But this year, almost NOBODY is undecided. Chump has (probably) fewer voters than last time because so many of those indifferent, undecided voters are now regretting their previous choice. Many voters have left Chump but very few new people have come to his side since last time. His numbers will be lower for sure.

Compare that to Joe Biden's intelligence, professionalism, vigor, sincerity, and likability - he has retained the regular Dem voters and also wooed in many new supporters with his personality, humor and drive to win. For so many reasons Joe is the better candidate, and most Americans can see it.

It's easy & comfortable to LIKE Joe, and it's easy & obvious to DISLIKE Chump.