Can Doug Jones win reelection?

[NYCButterfinger]

Alabama has a large Black population, he comes from the Republican suburbs where a lot of Romney-Clinton voters are.

Do you think Alabama can be left in our column?

[Claustrum]

1. No. I think the republican that might have sat out will be motivated to vote now.

I see AL, SC, Iowa and Maine senate seat to shift toward republican.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Not a chance.

He barely won against a pedophile - no way is he going to win against Tuberville.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

8. Unfortunately this.

I don't see Jones winning. And Michigan's Senate race is too close for my liking too. Peters is only up by 3.6 per RCP's average. James got within 7pts of Stabenow in 2018, which was a blue wave year in Michigan. For comparison, Stabenow won by 20pts in her previous reelection.

[BlueTsunami2018]

3. It seems very unlikely.

He just barely eeked out a win against a child molestor. Going against a beloved football coach in Alabama is a bridge too far.

[NYCButterfinger]

7. Tuberville is not Saban

[BlueTsunami2018]

9. He doesn't have to be.

He’s a white Republican who hasn’t been accused of child molestation/stalking and was a football coach.

That’s enough.

[JI7]

4. no, he only won last time because his opponent sexually assaulted girls who were known

in their community and came from Republican families.

And even then it was close.

[In It to Win It]

5. Nope

[dsc]

6. He narrowly beat a man who was literally banned from his local mall for being such a pedo

in an election in which GOP voters had to turn out to vote for only him. Tuberville is just a typical bad Republican who will be on the ballot with a bunch of them.

[Amishman]

10. I think flipping Iowa or South Carolina has more potential

And I think those are very long shots

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Alabama has 47% self-identified conservatives

None of the other variables mean much of anything when you run into an ideological wall like that.

Actually 47% is probably low. That was the number when the state was last exit polled in a presidential race in 2012. The nation has become more polarized and white working class types even more conservative and Republican.

It took a surreal combination of variables for Jones to win that special election. Heck, if Trump has been as popular as he is now then Jones would not have won, despite all the revelations about Roy Moore. Trump's national approval was in the 35-37% range when that race was held in early December 2017.