I think Trump's numbers increased during the Kavanaugh fight

[helpisontheway]

I hope he does not get a boost due to the Supreme Court vacancy. Of course that asshole McConnell has said he will allow a vote.

[FBaggins]

1. It all depends on how it plays out

The bad news is that it really shakes things up... and we were in a pretty good position as long as nothing huge shook things up.

The good news is that Trump is entirely incapable of saying the right things (morally or strategically). This could make things worse.

[customerserviceguy]

2. They did, as I recall.

Trump loves a distraction more than anything else in the world. If he can nominate a sacrificial lamb, someone who is slightly on the moderate side of conservative, female, and a member of an ethnicity that has not previously had a shot at a SCOTUS seat, he will create massive distraction, as the news turns from C-19, failure to pass economic relief, and general incompetency to a knock-down drag out battle in the Senate to even get the nomination to a vote.

A "loss" of such a throwaway judge would serve to galvanize Trump's base like nothing else can. This is a golden opportunity to keep Joe Biden's policies and his candidacy out of the limelight. Trump's minions will find it especially tempting to get Sen. Harris to have a very high profile on the Senate Judiciary Committee, with Joe Biden's light appearing to dim in comparison.

The campaign probably has a playbook on what to do in this situation, I expect them to attempt to execute it starting Monday.

[agingdem]

3. but that was before

covid, 200,000 dead...the economy teetering on the edge...36 million unemployed...parents afraid to send their kids back to school...losers and suckers.. bleach/disinfectant..played down the virus..overt racism, teargassing peaceful protestors..running the White House like its his personal ATM...Bill Barr..USPS, yes vaccine/no vaccine...stable genius and on and on... the world as we know it doesn't exist anymore...the common wisdom is out the window...the election is weeks away..RBG was a heroic icon, shoving a right wing hack onto the SC isn't going to endear the orange imbecile to anyone....

[Cha]

4. Exactly. Things CHANGE.

[helpisontheway]

5. I really hope you are right.nt