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Sat Sep 19, 2020, 08:34 PM

Where Does RBG's death put Roberts?

Last edited Sat Sep 19, 2020, 11:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Reading up on Five Thirty Eight about the impact of a Trump SCOTUS appointment will play out, I noticed, an interesting graphic:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Artboard-3@2x.png?w=1024

One of the most startling observations was that when he was nominated in 2005, Roberts was about as conservative as Alito, but especially in the last few years, Roberts has become almost scrupulously moderate. The reputation of the supreme court is actually something very much of value to him, and he has become a mentor to Kavenaugh to the extent that Kavenaugh's been surprisingly moderate in his own decisions.

I have to wonder, if Trump does attempt to push through an arch-conservative (and his judicial list has a bunch of them), Roberts may very well move farther to the left to compensate - not necessarily because he's temperamentally becoming more liberal but because he doesn't want to see the courts become a political instrument.

Another thought. Breyer is 82, Thomas is 72, and Alito is 70. For reference, Ginsburg was 87, and while we hoped she'd lived to be ninety she's been battling cancer for a long time now. Should Biden win, I suspect that Breyer will announce his retirement in February, putting a young (likely black female) justice on the court (Michelle, where are you?). This brings up an interesting possibility. Thomas at that point has to make a decision - stay on until health does become an issue (and his health isn't great) or retire as well.

Let's say that Trump decides to put forward the current version of Laura Ingraham in a black robe (https://www.ratfuckingthecourts.com/post/report-amy-coney-barrett), it's likely that McConnell may be in a quandary, as it pushes a raving lunatic into senate judiciary hearings in prime time election mode at a time when people are angry at how extreme right the GOP has gone. That gives McConnell about sixty days to put a second appointee up after the election, before Trump is out on his ear.

The SCOTUS decisions traditionally are made in June. This means that worse case scenario there will be a counter to Trump Pick #3 in place (Roberts shifting leftward) and the very real possibility that either Thomas or Alito will end up retiring or possibly dying between now and the end of Biden's term.

Of course, if Trump wins, we're screwed regardless, but I don't think he will.


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Reply Where Does RBG's death put Roberts? (Original post)
kurtcagle Sep 2020 OP
MiniMe Sep 2020 #1
CincyDem Sep 2020 #2
PTWB Sep 2020 #3
kurtcagle Sep 2020 #4

Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 08:44 PM

1. Please everybody, RBG, not RGB

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 08:48 PM

2. Here's a scary thought...

With trumps new appointee, Alito will likely be the ideological center of the court with Roberts, Kagen Stotomyor and Breyer to his left and Thomas gorsuch, keggerboy and newbie to his right.

Roberts can run all the way to the left of RBG and he’ll still only be one of four.

Give HRC 3 appointments and kagen would probably be the center. Instead we get Alito.

Thank got we had Jill Stein to save us from her emails.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 09:04 PM

3. RGB???

 

Really?

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Response to PTWB (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 19, 2020, 11:49 PM

4. I have dyslexia

I usually catch it with grammarly, but it doesn't always pick up acronyms even in context.

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