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Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:05 AM

* A Rated NBC WSJ POLL* Biden 51% *Klansman* 43%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809/200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.pdf

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:25 AM

1. The polls are remarkably consistent and stable at the moment.

Hope that continues through election day.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:27 AM

3. And voting has already started.

It will continue because most people have
already made up their minds.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:27 AM

2. Unfortunately

Last edited Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)

National polls don't mean as much as the 5 or 6 swing states that matter.


I edited from "don't mean anything" to a more nuanced sentence.

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Response to edhopper (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:34 AM

4. They indicate trends.

An 8-9% win by Biden means he wins most, if not all, of the swing states. The swing states generally don't buck overall trends in blowouts. 8-9% would be a blowout. Obama's comfortable win over Romney, for example, was only 4%.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #4)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:18 AM

8. Exactly! pollsters say ntl polls are only trends until 5-6 wks out, they then are very predictive

Go Joe..go Kamala

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Response to edhopper (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 10:36 AM

5. I disagree as the outcome can fuel what democrats can do. A 15 million vote margin

for Biden and taking back the Senate and holding the house = MANDATE. A WAVE election can dramatically change the direction of America and this can be the result of 2020, in same manner 2018 was

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Response to edhopper (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:12 AM

6. While the electoral votes matter a 9 pt national advantage can't be overcome.

The electoral college gives conservatives a ~2% advantage due to the fact that the median states are slightly more conservative than the national average.

Now keep an eye on the state polls but national polls are more frequent and the state polls seem to be tracking the same trend.

This election the polls have been atypically stable which as someone else said is a reflection that most people have decided long ago.

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Response to Statistical (Reply #6)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:20 AM

9. Yes...and with Biden polling over 50% consistently in most polls shows there are very few undecideds

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Response to edhopper (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:15 AM

7. People say "they don't mean anything."

But that is demonstrably wrong. They are an indicator. Nothing more, but nothing less either.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:23 AM

10. See post #4 & 8. at this point in the race they do become very predictive

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:27 AM

11. true

I edited my post

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Response to edhopper (Reply #11)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:32 AM

14. Cool, thanks! NT

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:28 AM

12. These polls should be interpreted as 51%-49%

The simple fact is that many of these undecided/other voters are just Trump voters who aren't comfortable admitting to themselves that they are going to vote for Trump.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #12)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:31 AM

13. Not sure I'd agree.

I think his fans are more likely to express their opinions of support than others. 43% is also in line with his long-term approval rating, if slightly above.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #13)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:42 AM

15. Republican voters include more than the proud base

Same with Democrats. Every election a good percentage of people vote for a candidate they profess to actively dislike but choose anyway because of [insert particular rationalization here].

Given Trump's unprecedented toxicity, the people who are going to hold their nose and vote for Biden have already made their peace with it, while the people who are going to vote for Trump because "Dems forced me to at the last moment" are still pretending to be on the fence.

I guarantee that the vast majority of undecideds are Trump voters waiting for the opportunity to rationalize their choice. The very best we can hope for is those people stay home.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #12)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 11:52 AM

16. Don't entirely disagree

but it's isn't ALL undecideds as you indicate. Maybe more like 51%-45% or 51%-47.

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Response to edhopper (Reply #16)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 01:00 PM

17. Sure, not all, but the majority

Although I would argue that psychologically, we should treat them as "all" to avoid even a hint od complacency.

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