So the early mail ballots will likely be the first to be counted on election day, right?

[jorgevlorgan]

Think the Democratic primaries, and how the mail ballots were the first to come in for California and, I think Texas. If that is the case on election day in most states -which it is likely to be, is it reasonable to assume Biden could declare victory fairly early?

Link to tweet

Trump's plan has always seemed to be declare victory early when the first ballots are counted and claim the election is rigged when it turns out he lost. So far, it may look like he won't really have the opportunity to do either of that unless he wants to claim his own votes are fraudulent (as many are more likely to be, anyways). Am I being too optimistic here?

[Laelth]

1. Counting protocols and timing vill vary from state to state. n/t

-Laelth

[jorgevlorgan]

3. The only swing state I am uncertain of would be MI, where they are still only now considering a bill

that passed their senate, which would allow processing two days before the election. Still, I would expect they would be able to count a substantial amount of those early ballots if not all, before the day is over (assuming the bill is signed into law).

WI, VA, NC, PA and I think even Florida, seem on top of it, and I believe will beginning processing of ballots even earlier, which would make counting them rather quick. If Biden does win Florida, PA and NC, it should be obvious November 3.

[Thekaspervote]

2. I think the twitter poster here has the right idea. That would maybe actually shut him up!!

[jorgevlorgan]

12. I remember with horror seeing those early returns on TV as I did the tourist thing in portland in 16

....walking by bars that had the results on TV and ignoring my phone that was dead on batteries.


I told my wife "oh those are just the early returns, it'll turn around!"

I look forward to seeing the early returns for hugely in favor of Biden on election day this year, and then seeing him declare victory soon after.

I really, really hope.

[Ms. Toad]

4. The very first reported votes are always absentee.

In states that permit it, all that has to be done is to press the tally button - since the ballots are run through the machines as they come in.

Other states require more of the process to take place on, or after, election day. But - since a button push is all that is required the earliest votes will be early voting/absentee ballots (even if it doesn't include all of the early voting/absentee votes).

[jorgevlorgan]

5. This leads me to believe that this "Red mirage" idea is highly unlikely unless Trump actually

wins. Then it wouldn't be a mirage...

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Most states will be counting mailed in ballots by Election Day.

I believe there are one or two states that actually wait until the polls close on Election Day before counting the absentee ballots. Hopefully those states will re-think that policy as thousands, then tens, then hundreds of thousands and even millions of ballots start arriving.

Many states have rules that ballots received after Election Day, sometimes up to two weeks later, are counted. Usually those late arriving ballots don't change things.

I'm also under the impression that the ballots from service people stationed overseas tend to be mailed close to or on Election Day itself. But they still need to be counted.

[jorgevlorgan]

7. I think that is right.

Unless this ends up being a close election, I can't see Trump using the election night results to steal the election.
(knock on wood)

[frazzled]

8. Some states do not even start processing mail ballots

(E.g, verifying signatures) until Election Day. And many don’t begin tabulating mail ballots, no matter when they were received, until Election Day or close of Election Day. So no, or at least not universally—expect a long wait for results.

[jorgevlorgan]

9. Right, but the main states that will matter will likely process rather quickly.

The ones that will take longer are those that we will likely already know what to expect. MI, WI, PA, FL, VA, and NC all I think are processing ballots before election day and will likely only need to push a button for the count.

[frazzled]

10. I dunno

Remember, California can process ballots early, as they come in, but it took more than 3 weeks to finalize the primary numbers this year.

I would not be overly optimistic about the time frame.

[jorgevlorgan]

11. I think we will be okay

The primary ballots that were processed later didn't really effect the results in too many races, right? I anticipate that will be the case this time. But yeah, the more people that early vote in person -especially in the slow processing states, the better.