Does anyone believe the US Covid-19 numbers?

[DonaldsRump]

Not to be grim, but it seems to me that the US Covid-19 numbers have slowed down dramatically, in terms of the number of deaths.

If that's true, that's great. But is it true?

I am deeply concerned that numbers are being fudged downwardly to give the false impression that we've turned the corner and now things are fine. I'm also concerned that Trump is going to go after D governors and say this is a "Blue State problem", as was Jared Kushner's plan all along.

It looks to me like the US has been hovering just below the 200,000 fatality mark for a very long time now, and I have absolutely no confidence in anything that we are being told anymore. Something's fishy.

I'm happy to stand corrected.

[JI7]

1. I think Red States are probably not reporting everything. BUT I do think people are wearing masks

more and that is helping to slow down the infections.

[apnu]

15. We know Red States are not reporting everything

Remember early on, Florida tried to fudge its numbers, the top person there refused to do that and she got canned, then the next day Florida's numbers were "corrected" and have been ever since.

[Yavin4]

19. That doesn't bode well for election results.

There will be no honest numbers out of FLA.

[Wounded Bear]

2. For the most part, yes I do believe the numbers, however...

there is evidence that until now actual cases have been under counted, mostly because we never achieved widespread testing other than in a few local areas so we don't have a strong statistical base for the counts of cases.

I also believe that the number of deaths has been under counted. Trump has contaminated the leadership of the CDC and NIH and the data they are providing.

[Cicada]

3. Look at excess deaths

More people are dying than in past years. The number of extra deaths, the “excess deaths“, is a rough estimate of the number of covid deaths. You can search for us excess deaths

[Mariana]

13. Here's a link:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Scroll down to the graph headed "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes). It really does tell the story. It's important to read the Figure Notes, and understand that the counts aren't complete for recent weeks. I don't see a running total of excess deaths for the year there, although I'm sure that number can be found somewhere.

[secondwind]

4. We're over 204,000 already.

[LuvNewcastle]

5. I read an article a while back that said

Florida wasn't counting all of their Covid deaths and they were being pretty brazen about it. I'm sure there are others, especially red states, who aren't being honest. The GOP have politicized this disease more than any disease since AIDS, all to make their messiah look better so he can win his election. They lie, they put pressure on doctors and scientists to stretch the truth. He'll no, I don't believe what we're being told. I'm not sure what the truth is, but I'm betting that it's a lot worse than what we're being led to believe.

[Meowmee]

6. I think cases & deaths have been undercounted and spread allowed / encouraged

For many reasons... red states now are not doing accurate counting. It is a mess- I am not sure how with all the idiots in this country and no cohesive plan covid will ever be under control. No in person schools/ sports etc should be happening until this is under control, it is a no brainer. The death rate was 50% higher starting at the height of covid outbreaks. I think many of those deaths were covid related, untested people who died at home and or who had symptoms etc. that were not considered typical of covid at that point. That is still going on now I am sure in some states. And of course we have a fascist gov in charge that is lying about all of it.

[wcast]

7. Here is the site I use.

Excess deaths give a clearer picture.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

[Doodley]

8. Too few tests equals more people dying at home without a Covid diagnosis.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Info

Worldometer’s official numbers are checked against state and local news releases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/about/#sources

Wide discrepancies would be noted.

[GoCubsGo]

10. No. Many states have drastically reduced testing.

And, that's after barely providing it in the first place. In my county, they'd provide 1000 tests every Friday. One thousand a week--for a county of over 100,000. Those have stopped. The infection rate went fro 30-40 per day down to single digits in a matter of a week. People are still dying at the same rate, however.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. Look at These Graphs

The slowdown you suggest doesn't look real, to me.
Yes, the case load decreased since the July peak, and deaths were higher in April, but the trend line for cases, daily is pretty much the same the last 6 weeks.
Looking at the cumulative death graph, it looks to be on the same slope since mid-July.
Besides, several data aggregators get there number directly from county boards of health.
"Fudging the number" would require a conspiracy involving massive numbers of health officials, of all political persuasions, and zero whistleblowers. Unlikely, more unlikely, most unlikely.
Last: in vast swaths of the country, people are wearing masks. Reducing the spread by wearing masks was the goal! If people cooperate, we should have seen a lower daily case load than 4 or 5 months ago. And, we did.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[LiberalBrooke]

12. I think the numbers are seriously underreported.

I had 3 family members who most likely had it but were not tested because there were too many barriers to doing so. Frankly, they were too sick to navigate the system after several fails. Thankfully they recovered. With very little outside interactions, they would have been perfect subjects for contact tracing too.

[bdamomma]

14. I think

there are/were are more deaths than what they are reporting. In the beginning of Covid, there were more deaths not being recorded and also those people who were told to go back home.


But again the deaths are a crime against humanity.

[NRaleighLiberal]

16. no.

[Magoo48]

17. Hell No. it's easy to see who's fiddling the numbers on any dashboard you choose.

[brush]

18. It's well past 200k now and that's being acknowledge on news programs.

That huge, huge milestone of a number has been reached and there's nothing that trump and the repugs can do about it.

They will try to keep downplaying it but it's right there for the nation to see and it's trump's fault.

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. The USA just overtook the UK in deaths/million, on worldometer figures

I find that believeable. They have it over 200,000.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus has the 7 day rolling average of deaths as 764.4; that's in line with the days before. It'll pass 200,000 tomorrow (now 199,881).

[kentuck]

21. They seem to be manipulating someone at the CDC...

Would they try to manipulate the numbers? Who knows? Nobody trusts them.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Yes - at least for the most part on deaths. Those who don't are no better than other deniers.

The people who say it's inflated.

I do think the death total is higher than reported but not by a significant amount. But yes, I believe it's over 200,000 dead and those who think it's dramatically higher have no room to get upset at those who think it's being inflated, since they're both pushing the same crazy conspiracies.

[dpibel]

23. Really? Covid bothsiderism?

So you're saying that observing that excess deaths (a standard epidemiological tool) are running about 25% higher than the reported Covid death toll is a crazy conspiracy? That the data professional in Florida who resigned rather than fudge the numbers is just a wack job?

As far as I know, the overcount advocates have the following evidence in support of their beliefs: I saw it on Fox/heard it on talk radio/read it on Facebook.

If you know of evidence of quality similar to excess deaths that supports the overcounting theory, I'd love to be educated.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. Absolutely.

Anyone who is pushing the idea that deaths are significantly higher and not just statistical noise is a conspiracy nut on the same level as those who believe deaths are being massively inflated.

But I don't educate conspiracy nuts because they don't want to be educated. That's not my game tbh

For now, I'll trust the likes of Columbia.

[dpibel]

26. That's a big broad brush

Conspiracy nuts like this?

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

[Rice4VP]

24. The people who have lost someone to

COVID will let us know on November 3. There’s also the people who are unemployed or the 7M+ that contracted it