Trump is behind in nearly every poll in 3 major swing states

[turbinetree]

By Josh Israel -September 22, 2020 1:47 PM

Only a couple of GOP pollsters have seen anything but a Biden lead in these three key states.

Three states that narrowly swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016 seem likely to swing back in 2020. Polling currently gives a consistent and solid lead to Democrat Joe Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Should Biden carry all three of these swing states and keep all of the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, he will win an Electoral College majority and the presidency.

According to RealClear Politics' polling average, Biden currently enjoys a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 6.4-point lead in Michigan, and a 6.7-point lead in Wisconsin.

FiveThirtyEight's poll averages are similar. They put Biden ahead in Pennsylvania by 4.5 points, in Michigan by 7.5 points, and in Wisconsin by 6.4 points. Trump has continually trailed in each of the three states' polling averages since mid-April.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

https://americanindependent.com/donald-trump-joe-biden-presidential-race-polls-swing-states-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2020-election/

[C_U_L8R]

1. And he certainly isn't making any new friends

He looks like a sure loser.

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Importance of This

These 3 states have 46 EC votes. If Biden wins these three states he won't just win "a majority".
PINO got 304 EC votes in '16. Take these 46 away and he loses by 22.
There are no states in the balance that HRC won that would make the difference if it flipped.
If Florida flips, it's a blow out.

[DemsIn2020]

3. I am telling you ..

PA worries me.. We have a Repub legislation here that is now fighting with the Dems and winning.

Not saying Trump will win PA, but it's close and wouldn't shock me if he does. There are ton more Trump signs.

[Thekaspervote]

4. MI, PA & WI have only voted for a gop president once in the last 24 yrs..

https://adobeindd.com/view/publications/63bc59bd-7b47-4c04-bd20-c6e7dbb9221f/1/publication-web-resources/pdf/Presidential_Voting_by_State_(1992-2016).1.pdf

[DemsIn2020]

5. And Pa was in 2016 which sucks.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Yes.... still their voting record bodes very well for the Dems

[Cicada]

6. Of course polls showed the same thing in 2016

Yet Trump won them all. Pollsters tried to find out why they went wrong. They concluded that less educated young white voters in those states were underrepresented in their polls. So now many polling firms weight their samples to make sure that their samples include the right percentage of those less educated young white voters. Some pollsters have analyzed this years polls two ways, using the procedure used in 2016 and using the new procedure forcing their sample to have the correct percentage of those voters. They find a five point difference. In 2016 those state polls undercounted the Trump vote by about five percent. And this year the weighted Trump percent is about five percentage points higher than the unweighted Trump percentage. So hopefully we have fixed the problem.

[rockfordfile]

8. A long ways to go

Get out the vote.