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Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:29 PM

538.com: Biden chances for winning 77%, Trump 22%

This projection was 65/35 at the end of August, and Trump has fallen a point every day and a half since. GA and IA are now both reported as tossups.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


26 replies, 1762 views

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Reply 538.com: Biden chances for winning 77%, Trump 22% (Original post)
kurtcagle Sep 2020 OP
Takket Sep 2020 #1
fierywoman Sep 2020 #2
Under The Radar Sep 2020 #5
doc03 Sep 2020 #3
Statistical Sep 2020 #10
Cha Sep 2020 #4
Sogo Sep 2020 #7
Wellstone ruled Sep 2020 #9
ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #6
kurtcagle Sep 2020 #15
shrike3 Sep 2020 #20
ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #21
kurtcagle Sep 2020 #23
Wellstone ruled Sep 2020 #8
smirkymonkey Sep 2020 #11
Funtatlaguy Sep 2020 #12
XanaDUer2 Sep 2020 #13
Funtatlaguy Sep 2020 #16
Aepps22 Sep 2020 #17
kurtcagle Sep 2020 #18
shrike3 Sep 2020 #19
lpbk2713 Sep 2020 #14
kurtcagle Sep 2020 #22
fescuerescue Sep 2020 #24
mucifer Sep 2020 #25
former9thward Sep 2020 #26

Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:30 PM

1. GOTV

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:32 PM

2. Do these percentages factor in rampant cheating by the r's???

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Response to fierywoman (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:43 PM

5. There isn't a method to poll cheating but hopefully Biden's lead

...continues toward a landslide where same day voting will show a Biden blowout and the mail in ballots counted later only expand that lead.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:40 PM

3. But but the media keeps saying the polls are

tightening. The Economist has Biden at a consistent 86-87% for at least the last couple weeks I have watched it.
It boils down to one thing if Democrats vote we always win.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 06:09 PM

10. Media wants a horserace. They always want a horserace.

Every election for 20 years the polls were "tightening".

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:42 PM

4. Fuck the Fucking media's "horserace".GOTV

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Response to Cha (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:44 PM

7. This.

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Response to Cha (Reply #4)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 06:02 PM

9. Try this,

 

our neighbor is the lead Engineer at a Local TV Station. He said yesterday all the local TV Stations agreed on their new Political Ad Rates and it is higher than all other categories.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:43 PM

6. For Context

538 had PINO at a 29% chance of winning in 2016.
Yes, that was higher than most other predictions, but it was only 29%.
It's not like Nate nailed it in '16.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #6)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:26 PM

15. Nate's analysis.

What's noteworthy about 2020 vs 2016 was in the variability of the race. The timing with Comey at twenty-one days out made that obvious, as Clinton's numbers varied dramatically throughout the race. Clinton also ran a more divisive race, and was a far more controversial candidate. Trump was at 35% on 538 a week before the election and while he dropped dramatically, that number was sufficient for a lot of mail-in and early election ballots to be cast. Had the election been a week later, Clinton would have won the EC, assuming no other shenanigans.

Silver did in fact predict that an upset was entirely possible, but more to the point, he also made it clear that the Margin of Error on the race was very high. The 2020 MoE is looking to be much smaller, given the degree to which the race has barely budged.

My expectation is, given both the fact that there are more mail-in ballots and longer voting periods (good things, both), there's going to be a significant locked in advantage for Biden even IF there is an October surprise of some sort. I also suspect that Nate's model may actually be biased towards Trump precisely because of the 2016 election.

I agree, none of this should be taken to say we shouldn't get complacent. I fully expect that you will see every attempt made to cheat, especially at the Senate level, by the GOP. They're not even attempting to be subtle about it anymore. However, I think that the very explicit nature of that cheating is actually backfiring.

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Response to kurtcagle (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:30 PM

20. I saw a graph of Hillary's numbers and was surprised at how unstable they were



They were up and down like a yo-yo. How soon we forget. No wonder my nerves were shot. I also remember the impact of Comey's letter. There was like a change in the air when that happened.

I continue to be hopeful because Biden's numbers are so steady.

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Response to kurtcagle (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:40 PM

21. I Buy That

I looked over the 2016 prediction and found it was a little arbitrary in weighting. The explanations were a bit squishy, as well.
And, I am one who is loathe to compare '16 to '20, as there are substantial subjective variables that are very different this year.
I was only providing context that even Nate has not developed a model that is supremely reliable in it's ability to predict.
Maybe he has adjusted factors & weighting, and that would be good.
And, PINO at 22 instead of 29 is another positive.
I haven't looked at his method now, but there are 2 subjectives I think are high impact:
- the 25 year propaganda to drum up dislike & distrust of HRC does not exist for Biden.
- the unknown commodity factor that PINO had 4 years ago no longer exists. Some people thought voting for the outsider would shake things up and get things done. Aside from court packing, they've accomplished a lot of nothing.
Less reason to vote against Biden, AND less reason to vote for PINO.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #21)

Thu Sep 24, 2020, 10:30 PM

23. Pretty much agreed on everything

None of the models in 2016 were great, but to a certain extent, that was because Trump was something of a black swan event. Most models are usually only accurate when there is sufficient prior data to provide those weightings, and while he was a known quantity as a person, he was not a known quantity as a politician.

He's now running with a record (or rap sheet, I'm still inclined to believe it looks more like a rap sheet), and that record is abysmal. Also agreed about Biden not being Hillary Clinton. We've also had the 2018 election, which I believed established a number of metrics about how one DOES measure someone like Trump, and as such I think there's more confidence in the models this time around.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 05:59 PM

8. The Nation has made up it's mind

 

and it is not Trump. So,if you vote by mail,make damn sure your read the instructions before mailing it back. BTW,use at least 65 cents postage or more if in doubt.

Just one more time in your life where more postage is better.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 06:14 PM

11. K&R

 

I honestly think I will have a nervous breakdown if Trump manages to steal the election again. I really can't get through another four years of this nightmare.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 06:43 PM

12. Georgia and Iowa have 3 turnable Senate seats. GOTV there!

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #12)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:23 PM

13. What's GOTV?

I should know, but I see it on DU a lot.

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Response to XanaDUer2 (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:26 PM

16. Get Out The Vote

That refers to campaigns locating their supporters and making sure that they vote.

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Response to XanaDUer2 (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:26 PM

17. Get Out The Vote

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Response to XanaDUer2 (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:27 PM

18. GOTV Get Out The Vote

nt

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Response to XanaDUer2 (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:27 PM

19. "Get Out The Vote" (GOTV)

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:25 PM

14. That sounds like Trump's only hope is some sort of coup.




Be vigilant. He's capable of anything.

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Response to lpbk2713 (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 07:43 PM

22. Coups need support and surprise

He's PLANNING a coup. I don't think there's any question about it. Problem is that he's pissed off the military, is getting pushback from several agencies (even DHS and DOJ), is increasingly constrained on logistics and has only about 45 days to pull it off.

If he wins, it's moot - he'll deal with a great deal of civil unrest, but he'll have the full backing of the presidency behind him at that point. If he loses, even if the vote is contentious, his legitimacy is gone. He can still do damage (and he's the kind of petulent bully that will do damage) but his ability to command loyalty will have ended. What's more, I suspect that most of the West, Northeast and even upper Midwest will not acknowledge him as president at that point.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Thu Sep 24, 2020, 10:37 PM

24. So basically 1 out of 4 he'll return

Or about double that of rolling craps at the table.

That doesn't make me feel good.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #24)

Thu Sep 24, 2020, 10:39 PM

25. They had slightly lower prediction of Hillary winning. But not much

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Thu Sep 24, 2020, 10:45 PM

26. What did they say 4 years ago at this time?

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