General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump is in a horrible electoral position
We are 6 weeks from the election and the overall state of the race is about the same as it has been since.... probably spring 2019 when Biden announced his candidacy. Like all of you I read the daily articles about what Trump can do to win or how this event is making a loss more likely. But in the end, when you think about everything that has to happen for Trump to close the gap with Biden, something he has been completely unable to do for some 520 days in a row now (not an exaggeration, that is how long Bidens streak has been leading in the national polls), and everything that is working against him, his reelection seems nearly impossible.
In fact, Trump's best hope is to pull close to even and then win by razor thin margins. That is his best scenario. But think about all of the events that would need to happen and issues he would have to overcome in less than 6 weeks. Again, something he has been unable to do for over a year and a half.
1. He has to steal a lot of voters that have been backing Biden for over 500 days. Based on the polls and previous elections that is winning over millions, even over 10 million Biden voters in the next few weeks. Or there would need to be millions of "secret Trump voters" that aren't showing up in polls or voter registration data
2. He needs to overcome the massive Democratic advantage in early voting by having almost unheard of election day turn out
3. He has to also hope that the polls are very, very wrong. People point to 2016 but even then they were only off by the margin of error. And pollsters now weigh trump leaning voters heavier than they did in 2016. So even though polling methods are more favorable to detecting trump support, not less than in 2016, the errors need to be way, way, way larger in Trump's favor in 2020.
4. Any Russian interface and voter suppression they may be counting on needs to be orders of magnitude more effective than in 2016. And that would have to overcome how hyper aware people are to such problems in 2020.
5. Trump needs to somehow close this huge polling gap with almost no money while Biden has about $100 million he can spend every week until the end of the election
6. You can also add in issues of Trump and Trump campaign incompetence, the unpopularity of the supreme court fight, the increasing threat of an immanent COVID spike and economic collapse.
All of these things need to go Trump's way, somehow, and even then his best chance is winning by one of the closest electoral vote margins in American history. If they aren't terrified over at Trump HQ then they are clearly delusional.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Dr. Jack
(675 posts)And in away that isn't obvious yet also makes up some 10 million votes?
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)ratfucking.
I've never heard that vote totals were changed. Can you provide a link for that info?
Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)abqtommy
(14,118 posts)Last edited Tue Sep 22, 2020, 11:30 PM - Edit history (2)
links: https://theintercept.com/2017/06/05/top-secret-nsa-report-details-russian-hacking-effort-days-before-2016-election/
https://www.wired.com/2016/08/americas-voting-machines-arent-ready-election/
https://upload.democraticunderground.com/10141630393
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214114785
Of course the conventional wisdom is that "no votes were changed" but in at the above links the
hacking process is described in full and there was much ratfuckery...
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)brooklynite
(94,308 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)Dr. Jack
(675 posts)On page 32
Fiendish Thingy
(15,545 posts)And the odds are currently against him winning the Electoral College.
No doubt this election will determine if the American Experiment continues...
Blue Owl
(50,242 posts)n/t
Alliepoo
(2,208 posts)Your posts are calming to me and make me feel much more positive about this election.
Dr. Jack
(675 posts)Too much fear and depression these days. Best to look at the bright side every now and then
Poiuyt
(18,112 posts)rockfordfile
(8,695 posts)Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)them. McConnell and pugs have helped him thus far but if we vote and I suggest voting in person if you can...or early vote if you can, we will defeat him in a landslide. The Ginsberg thing won't help Trump or the GOP, it will hurt them. Already the ACA commercials are running...polls are showing Georgia up by two for Biden today...Georgia! Let's stay positive and do our part...and in six months, Trump will be a nightmare we work up from.
Dr. Jack
(675 posts)People act like Russia is all powerful, that Trump can do whatever he wants and literally nothing can stop him, and that McConnell is the greatest strategic genius in world history. In reality, all of these forces, while ruthless, aren't all seeing gods that can act with impunity. Russia is a third world country on the verge of a total economic collapse that has set up some facebook accounts to scare right wingers who are already on a steady diet of misinformation from American sources and have been for decades, Trump can barely drink from a glass of water or read, and McConnell is a liar who will likely cause a massive backlash to the GOP.
I remember people attributing Karl Rove with these kinds of mythical powers in the early to mid 2000s. Democrats hid under the beds (a bit of an exaggeration) when he got involved in the 2006 and 2008 elections. Both of which were brutal landslide losses for the Republicans. The truth is, Trump's win in 2016 was 99% due to a weak democratic candidate, fair or not, and some overconfidence on the left. Once Dems started actually paying attention again and stopped being content ( 2018) Trump's electoral fuckery, the McConnell right wing judiciary, and russian interface had very little impact. It might be sacrilegious to say but most of these boogeymen that the Dems bring up (Trump, Putin, McConnell) are more excuses on why they lost in 2016 instead of admitting that Hillary wasn't a good choice for nominee. I'm not saying those things had zero impact but their impact is greatly exaggerated.
And I think anyone who believes that Trump or the Russians or The Supreme Court is going to turn a probable Dem landslide into a Trump victory is being way too pessimistic and cynical.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)VOX
(22,976 posts)As crummy and unfair as that is, thats where this election will be decided.
The perennial swing states are Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Arizona added this time.
As those states go, so goes the 2020 election. Which is why the EC has to GO!
yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)kwolf68
(7,365 posts)Republicans would NEVER EVER win another national election with a popular vote unless they modified their far right wing extremist policies. They have us right where they want us and won't give up that power. They can advance the most draconian laws that MOST Americans actually oppose simply because of the Electoral College. They don't have to work for shit, they don't have to compromise with anyone, just be a fucking fascist and you already have 20+ states in the bag, fool a couple battleground states and you can win even if the other person has 3 million more votes than you. Viva Democracy!!!!
FelineOverlord
(3,571 posts)Republicans have won the popular ONCE since 1988. They will never agree to getting rid of the EC.
So we must crush them in other ways.
Stuart G
(38,410 posts)He has lied, cheated, & bullied too many times...Well once maybe, or even twice...
But Donald Trump lies and bullies all the time. He has lost some of his major support. He will not get much
support from women, immigrants, blacks, young and many more.
Therefore, it won't be ....close enough to cheat or suppress the vote in any way. Trump will lose by at least
100 electoral votes, Maybe far more, 150 or more..and yes, you can take that to the bank. I don't think
that he will get more than 40% of the total vote, maybe far less.