Washington Post Battleground State Poll: Biden -4 FL, -1 AZ

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[OrlandoDem2]

1. This is nauseating

[helpisontheway]

2. So I guess the Supreme Court thing helped him. 🤷🏽‍♀️ I can't think of another

reason for a big bump. Maybe the CINDY McCain endorsement will help in Arizona. Biden might need to focus on the traditionally Dem states (PA,WI,MI,etc) that Hillary lost. I wish he could find time to swing my Hampton Roads,Va. Trump will be in that area on Friday.

[DrToast]

19. No, most of the poll was done before she died

These just look like outliers.

[tman]

3. Noise.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. They seem like outliers. What's odd is both polls seem like outliers. Here's all the polls from both

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/florida/

[Amishman]

9. timing with RBG's passing

these polls are centered on the news breaking, and the resulting sharp initial emotional response on both sides.

I'm taking any poll that includes the 18th and 19th with a grain of salt.

[MacKasey]

13. These polls are less than one thousand people

And the registered voters polled has Biden ahead

[pwb]

4. Could be the death count?

The sample is different?

[LisaL]

5. I think at this point it all going to depend on turnout.

Hopefully unlikely voters also go and get their voting done.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

6. Outlier / questionable turnout model

Trump up by 7 among 18-49? Doubt it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Which state has that in or both?

[NewJeffCT]

10. disappointing

especially since trump had reportedly stopped advertising in Arizona

[Buckeyeblue]

11. The AZ poll doesn't mesh with Kelly's numbers

We just need to count the votes.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

17. This poll has Kelly up by 1. It's an outlier.

Same pollster has Biden up by 16 in MN, which also ain’t happening. Another poll has Biden up by 3 in FL.

[safeinOhio]

12. The debates will be huge.

I'm counting on Tя☭mp to blow em.

[dawg]

14. The Florida poll appears to make a pretty large adjustment for "likely" voters.

If we are just as likely to vote as they are, then we're still leading in that one considering that Joe was ahead in the RV version of that poll.

[LisaL]

15. I think all signs are pointing to this being a high turnout election.

I don't see why we wouldn't be as likely to vote as they are.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. It depends on how ABC does its LV model...

Some polling places adjust their LV based on trends + turnout from specific elections. Others, the more reputable, use specific questions and past voting history to determine if their sample is likely to vote or not. Based on this, it's likely some of the responders gave the pollster a reason to believe they're not likely to vote I'm this election.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Not surprised by the Florida numbers - am surprised by Arizona.

Florida has been moving away from Biden the last few weeks, and the lack of high quality polls there concerned me. On the betting markets, Florida made a strong surge toward Trump last week - the first time in months he was favored to win. With this poll out, Trump likely will take the lead in the average of polls.

Unless Biden figures it out, FL is likely lost. I've been discouraged with his campaign there for a while.

Arizona is really disheartening to see.

This election is not turning into the comfortable victory it felt like a month ago. Plenty of time to turn it around but if Biden loses both Florida and Arizona, victory comes down to PA, which is tightening.

[DemsIn2020]

20. This is really upsetting.

I expect to lose Florida, but Arizona??

And Kelly’s lead is shrinking.