Cook Political Senate Update: COLORADO SENATE Colorado Senate Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat
With a Supreme Court nominee now all but certain to be confirmed by the GOP-controlled Senate this year (either before or after the election), it looks like there will only be two defections from Republican ranks — Maine Sen. Susan Collins, one of the most endangered incumbents up this fall, and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
Collins is one of two Republicans up this cycle representing states that President Trump lost. The other senator, Cory Gardner in Colorado, announced Monday he will back moving forward with a nominee — a change in the view he held in 2016, saying that the "next election is too soon." (Scalia, of course, died 9 months before election day, and almost every Republican has had a similar change of heart now that they control both the White House and the Senate).
To be sure, Gardner was one of the most endangered incumbents even before he staked out this controversial position that will surely be at odds with many Colorado voters. He represents the state that Trump lost by the biggest margin (five-points) of any Republican up in 2020, and that gap is expected to widen in November. The Centennial State has been steadily trending toward Democrats the past two cycles. In 2018, Democrat Jared Polis won the gubernatorial race by more than 10 points, and moderate Republican Rep. Mike Coffman lost re-election in the fast-growing Denver suburbs by 11 points.
And we had been preparing to move this race into a more competitive column very soon, even before Justice Ginsburg's death. But we use both qualitative and quantitative analysis to determine our ratings. We've had concerns about the weaknesses former Gov. John Hickenlooper has shown as a candidate, including how he handled ethics complaints against him earlier this year. While the popular two-term governor, fresh off a quixotic run for president, was wooed into the race and was initially seen as a strong recruit, he has not proved much to be that.
Gardner, coming off a turn as the NRSC chairman, was running the stronger race, even if he started at a strategic disadvantage given the partisan changes in the state. In fact, he's narrowly outspent Hickenlooper so far on ads, and Republican groups added in have combined to spend almost $4 million more than Hickenlooper and his Democratic allies. While Hickenlooper has outraised Gardner so far this year too, it's not been by the massive, lopsided sums we've seen in other core competitive contests.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/colorado-senate/colorado-senate-moves-toss-lean-democrat
