Dow down about 2%, Nas 3%, Tesla 11% today.

[empedocles]

Tesla was the spear point/market leader of the rally last month.

[This down September move continues, it will definitely hurt trump. Pocketbook issues have wide awarenes and sensitivity]

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Markets will catch up with reality eventually

There are a lot of things holding them up, but they are at least 40% over valued right now.

[Rule of Claw]

3. I wouldn't say 40.

Maybe 20. There is underlying liquidity still available to maintain a certain floor. But if it collapses it will be from a lack of stimulus.

I could easily see the markets drop 20 percent between now and November.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Give me the under

As in, it won't drop 20% or anything close to that

If I listened to market advice around here I would have sold all my Apple stock back in 2002 when the company was being ridiculed as nothing but "overpriced hardware"

[ProfessorGAC]

11. With Ya, Awsi

The economic value of the traded companies is close to par with total captilization.
The economic equilibrium with a +/5% range built suggest the market is overvalued by around 8%.
3% above the upper range.
So, the math suggests 3-13% overvalued, with lower & lower probably at the fringes.
These posts about market overvalue kind of annoy me.
40% would take the markets to below where is was when Obama was in office. Was there a reason to suggest markets were overvalued 45 months ago? No.
There are no macroeconomic indicators that suggest a 3.75 year fall in major indices.
This 20-40% stuff is silly.

[Calculating]

13. The issue isn't with the overall market, but certain overvalued stocks

In example, Tesla which is up around ten fold over one year and considered to be one of the most overvalued stocks ever.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Two Separate Issues

I did say the market was overvalued. It's not overvalued by 40% or even 20% because the overall economics, micro & macro, support a value way above the purported 40%.
One company being way overvalued could account for some of the 8%, though not all. But, nothing accounts for these ridiculously high estimates.

[orwell]

22. Liquidity has nothing to do with value...

...the market has been wildly overvalued for years, especially the big tech stocks. We were still overvalued at the recent March market trough.

This is mostly due to the depression of returns by a over stimulative Fed.

The joke is that real value stocks have been mostly ignored, much to Warren Buffet's chagrin.

It's been amateur hour for a long time now.

[stillcool]

2. I don't know what's real any more...

and know less about what might matter.

[empedocles]

4. Thats what trump hopes and works so hard at.

[stillcool]

10. yeah...it's too flipping easy to get sucked in.

[BannonsLiver]

5. Love seeing Tesla down

Musk is a libertarian Bond villain and his cars seem to have become the official car for angry men with tiny penises.

[Takebacktherepublic]

6. Tesla

Tesla is down today because yesterday they announced a new battery pack that will greatly boost the mileage between charges. That’s going to greatly slow the purchase of cars with the old battery pack. Most people will want to wait until pre-order launches for the new pack

[empedocles]

8. Wolf, cited here, last week said Tesla could go down 50% and still be overvalued.

[Takebacktherepublic]

9. I'm not saying I disagree

I was just giving my opinion on the large drop today.

[Calculating]

14. Tesla could go down 80% and still be overvalued

The stock has a pe of 1000+.

[andym]

23. It's up 5x over its low in March of this year.

72.24 on march 17. 380.36 today.

[GusFring]

12. Why do you guys post whenever it goes down? It'll be back up to whatever it was

[empedocles]

19. A number of DUer's seem to have retirement risk in stocks.

I try to balance the industry promos.

[If you read the Wolf report I posted last week, you would find that is does not necessarily go 'back up to whatever it was'. The Wolf report noted that in most markets, the top was sometime back, often many years from now. Translated, those markets have not come 'back to whatever it was'. Japan has been, and still is, more than 30% off the top which was 30 years ago - very painful for the 'don't panic', 'buy and hold crowd].

[peggysue2]

16. My husband just read an article indicating a Fed announcement

Basically the Fed said without additional stimulus from Congress, the economy will not recover. Of course, the Republicans and Mitch McConnell are too busy pushing a SCOTUS nomination to divert their attention to anything else. And Trump is still yammering about how great the economy is when it isn't.

We're living in an upside down world created by the Ugly Clown Show, aka Donald Trump.

But yes, if the downward slide continues? It hurts Trump all the more. Because for him the stock market is the economy.

[beachbumbob]

17. market feeling unease as trump sows discontent with democracy

that should be the headline

[Shermann]

18. Yes the markets are overvalued

But you can't determine how much with an Excel spreadsheet.

We had a black swan event tank the markets in the first quarter. That swan may still be around, or may be part of a flock which may show up. How do you account for that exactly?

I'm pretty sure that creates enough uncertainty that the markets shouldn't be anywhere near the February highs like they were.

[empedocles]

20. No black swan necessary. Warning signs flashing last December. Unemployment numbers now and

forecast, GDP, projected job and and income losses, advance/decline lines, realistic Covid projections, etc. Amazing, overall range of stats go from not good to dismal.

[empedocles]

21. Of course, a 'boomlet' could occur for the next 5 weeks. Prolly not much longer though.