General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThis has been quite a stable race - looking at 538 and Princeton
Currently on 538 their Monte Carlo runs have trump winning 22 times and Biden 77 times with one tie - starting on June 1, Biden's chances have ranged from a low of 67 on August 31 to a high of 79 on June 26.
Looking at electoral votes over the same range, Biden has a low of 313 to a high of 342, currently sitting at 332.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Sam Wang's Princeton site has a range of 290 electoral votes for Biden in March to a high of about 380 EVs in July - currently sitting at 341. The meta margin (from Toss Up) ranges from +1.5 percent in late March to over 7% in mid June and currently sits at +4.8.
https://election.princeton.edu/
Of course this is still too close for all of us - we want to see Biden wipe the floor with the orange asshole.
It will be interesting to see what the debates do to the numbers above.
GET OUT THE VOTE....and be hopeful!
Thekaspervote
(32,754 posts)We all need to play our part no matter how small!
BainsBane
(53,029 posts)We all need to do our part. It takes a bit of sacrifice, but it is essential.
mitch96
(13,888 posts)Totally agree. I want an over whelming margin of error. What do the bookies in LasVegas say?
Where would you look?
m
mitch96
(13,888 posts)Biden for the win by a slim margin... tRump for the loss. Caveat is that this is odds for today..
Not Nov 3 when it counts...VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT..
M
dawg day
(7,947 posts)Trump can't win. He just can't.
The triumph of hate, resentment, and cynicism-- how can GOP voters want that?
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)and perhaps a couple of more for good measure.
I doubt that trump would know the difference.