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NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 07:41 PM Sep 2020

This has been quite a stable race - looking at 538 and Princeton

Currently on 538 their Monte Carlo runs have trump winning 22 times and Biden 77 times with one tie - starting on June 1, Biden's chances have ranged from a low of 67 on August 31 to a high of 79 on June 26.

Looking at electoral votes over the same range, Biden has a low of 313 to a high of 342, currently sitting at 332.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Sam Wang's Princeton site has a range of 290 electoral votes for Biden in March to a high of about 380 EVs in July - currently sitting at 341. The meta margin (from Toss Up) ranges from +1.5 percent in late March to over 7% in mid June and currently sits at +4.8.

https://election.princeton.edu/

Of course this is still too close for all of us - we want to see Biden wipe the floor with the orange asshole.

It will be interesting to see what the debates do to the numbers above.

GET OUT THE VOTE....and be hopeful!

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
This has been quite a stable race - looking at 538 and Princeton (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Sep 2020 OP
Yes..stay hopeful, volunteer, text, make phone calls, write letters to GOTV Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #1
Exactly! BainsBane Sep 2020 #3
"Of course this is still too close for all of us" mitch96 Sep 2020 #2
Ok so I looked on a few bookie sites in the US and the UK mitch96 Sep 2020 #6
I am no good at this stuff, but if it's always that he's over 270, how could Trump ever win? dawg day Sep 2020 #4
I would hope that Biden wins 63 states Sherman A1 Sep 2020 #5
lol brer cat Sep 2020 #7

Thekaspervote

(32,754 posts)
1. Yes..stay hopeful, volunteer, text, make phone calls, write letters to GOTV
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 07:44 PM
Sep 2020

We all need to play our part no matter how small!

mitch96

(13,888 posts)
2. "Of course this is still too close for all of us"
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 07:47 PM
Sep 2020

Totally agree. I want an over whelming margin of error. What do the bookies in LasVegas say?
Where would you look?
m

mitch96

(13,888 posts)
6. Ok so I looked on a few bookie sites in the US and the UK
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 08:03 PM
Sep 2020

Biden for the win by a slim margin... tRump for the loss. Caveat is that this is odds for today..
Not Nov 3 when it counts...VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT..
M

dawg day

(7,947 posts)
4. I am no good at this stuff, but if it's always that he's over 270, how could Trump ever win?
Wed Sep 23, 2020, 07:51 PM
Sep 2020

Trump can't win. He just can't.

The triumph of hate, resentment, and cynicism-- how can GOP voters want that?

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