A practical question about states sending mail ballots to all registered voters

[DonaldsRump]

I just received an email from Alex Padilla, the California Secretary of State. It is comforting in many ways, but there is one thing that bothers me a little:

The state has allowed more time for vote-by-mail ballots cast by Election Day to arrive at county elections offices. County elections offices will process all ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and arrive within 17 days of Election Day.

Given that California is mailing out ballots to all registered voters, does this mean that it could be possible that we don't know the winner of California for 17 days after November 3 (i.e., November 20/21)? Since every registered voter will receive a mail ballot, many will vote by mail/ballot box and many will vote in person either through early voting or on Election Day.

My concern is all the people whose vote are NOT in by November 3, which could be many. Does that mean we won't really know who won in California, even unofficially until November 20/21? I guess if it's clear that there is no way that there are enough remaining outstanding ballots to change the results, that's one thing. However, when CA is mailing to ALL registered voters, that is a huge number, and many people will NOT vote at all for whatever reason, keeping the outcome open for nearly three weeks.

If other states are doing something similar, won't it be the same for those states too? Please help me understand if I am worrying too much that even a blow-out election for Joe could be stalled for weeks because of this? This could be where Trump causes huge uncertainty. I know we are all working to get our own votes, and those of friends and family in way before time, but isn't this a likely outcome?

[Srkdqltr]

1. There is a reason why voting is in Nov and inauguration is in Jan

Gives time to deliver all ballot results in the olden days and time to clear up any problems.

[DonaldsRump]

3. No issues with that and it helps control for late mail delivery

No question about that.

However, it's fine to do this with absentee ballots, as the state will know how many absentee ballots that were sent out and how many remain. If the remaining number is less than the current vote difference, than there is no way that the results can be changed.

Here, the ballots are going to ALL registered voters, and that is a gigantic number. In CA, we now have to wait 17 days after November 3. I'm a bit leery of that, as I suspect there will be a large number of people who don't vote at all for any reason (e.g., they don't want to vote, they are sick, they've moved, they didn't get their ballot etc).

Am I being paranoid?

[Retrograde]

16. Yes, you're being paranoid

Bookmark this site: CA Secretary of State 2020 elections. The Secretary of State will start posting partial results for all races after 8PM on election day, with updates as they come in. Voting by mail is not a new thing here - or in the west in general.

[RKP5637]

2. I don't get it. I've lived in a couple of states now with mail in voting ... and the ballots always

had to be returned before election day with enough time to be counted. Any after the date specified were not counted. You could track your ballot on their web site and also see when it was counted. It was all completed before/on election day.

[DonaldsRump]

4. In CA, there is a clear "line in the sand" of a November 3 postmark date on the ballot envelope.

The 17 days deadline to receive ballots after November 3 seems awfully long to me.

I think this is first time CA has done mail ballots to all registered voters. Maybe folks from Oregon or other states that have all mail-in ballots could guide us on this?

[brush]

8. Isn't the certification day of the vote outcome in Dec. in most states? California seems to...

give more days for counting but it is the most populous state, and let's face it, California is not going to turn from blue to red anytime soon.

Biden will win California no matter how many days they allow for the ballots to be counted.

[Hoyt]

5. Don't think it will take as long as people fear in most states. But even if

it does, we’ll adapt. There will be plenty of experts — like Kornacki and poll watchers — to keep us informed as to the way outstanding ballots likely lean.

What I won’t understand is people waiting until last minute to send or drop off ballots.

[DonaldsRump]

7. That's a fair point.

I guess these polling experts will know where the remaining ballot are from and can make projections based on that. For example, if there are 500 ballots from Precinct Y which has traditionally voted for Ds, they can make assumptions and figure out the likely spread of those remaining ballots.

That's comforting. Thanks for that.

[Voltaire2]

6. as soon as the margin of victory is greater than the number of outstanding ballots

the count is effectively over. The SOS can certify the winners, or whatever the procedure is in CA at that point.

[StarfishSaver]

13. This is the right answer

[jorgevlorgan]

9. No. California counts its mail ballots first

The early ballots will be the first counted, and the ones received later will likely have little impact on the results. Remember the primaries? The early mail ballots were cast first giving bernie a huge lead until the later ones were counted. We will definitely know who won california as soon as polls close anyways.


This will be the case for most states, btw. We will know who won the election on Nov 3 if it isn't close.

[gratuitous]

10. First, Biden will be declared the winner in California before midnight on election day

Second, if you're really concerned about your ballot being counted and tabulated, don't wait until November 3 to put it in the mail.

Third, the total number of ballots postmarked on or before November 3 that aren't received at your county's election office until November 20 will be small, less than the margin of victory in most races, even taking into account the total number of ballots sent out. Turnout varies across the country, even in hotly contested presidential election years. California registered an impressive 75% turnout in 2016, but late-arriving ballots don't run all one way or the other. If Biden is winning 55-45 on the ballots received and counted on November 3, even if 1.5 million ballots (slightly more than 10% of the 2016 turnout) arrive between November 4 and November 20, those ballots will closely follow the ratio of the ballots already received and counted.

Let's say 15 million ballots are returned in California (there were 14.6 million ballots cast in California in 2016). 13.5 million of those marked ballots arrive timely and are counted on November 3. Biden wins 55% to 45%, meaning he gets 7,425,000 votes to Trump's 6,075,000 votes. For reference, Clinton polled 61.5% of the vote in 2016, but let's temper enthusiasm and assume Biden does much worse than Clinton, and only polls 55% of the vote in California. Of those 1.5 million late votes Trump would need to get 1.35 million votes (90%) just to tie.

[DonaldsRump]

11. Thanks. The concern isn't our family's ballots

We get those in early October and we will fill them out, sign, and put them in our ballot box the same day. We will track them and print out confirmation.

The concern is clearly ALL the other ballots that aren't in. Your calculations and the other posts help greatly to ease my mind.

Also, to add, the concern isn't CA. That's CLEARLY going Joe and Kamala's way and by an even bigger margin that for HRC. I am more concerned about swing states that are sending out mail ballots to all registered voters.

The point that's clearly made by you and other posters is that we should be able to tell where all remaining ballots are and make certain projections on that. It won't be exact, but it will be good enough in some states, like CA, to declare a winner on November 3.

I just hope we don't have a bunch of "too early to calls" in the swing states on November 3 that last for several days. Our fearless and impeached Infector-in-Chief will use that to cause doubt.

This is clearly why we have to encourage everyone EVERYWHERE to send their ballots in ASAP, fall the instructions to the T. The blow-out has to be a timely blow-out for it to stop Bunker Boi in his tracks.

[SharonClark]

14. So, the heart of your concern is ...

"I just hope we don't have a bunch of "too early to calls" in the swing states on November 3 that last for several days. Our fearless and impeached Infector-in-Chief will use that to cause doubt.

This is clearly why we have to encourage everyone EVERYWHERE to send their ballots in ASAP, fall the instructions to the T. The blow-out has to be a timely blow-out for it to stop Bunker Boi in his tracks."

Got it.

[DonaldsRump]

18. I trust that wasn't sarcasm

As an example, there are others who have this concern about "too early to call" states. It's a very real issue:

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/23/916012284/rule-changes-in-swing-states-mean-more-votes-will-count-results-may-take-longer

That is precisely why I said get the ballot in as early as possible, as it now becomes clear what's at stake. Even then, as the NPR article says, states like PA and WI can't even begin to start counting mail-in ballots until November 3. The more definitive and widespread victory that Joe has in other states, the less likely it is that Trump can create doubt.

[Retrograde]

12. There are almost always races that aren't decided until late

They're usually congressional races or local ones. California has a well-defined voting and counting process that accounts for ballots delivered late (although post-marked by 8PM election day), provisional ballots, and damaged ballots. Counties - where the actual counting occurs - have about 30 days to get their totals to the Secretary of State, who issues the official vote tallies a week after. We've been doing this for years. Contrary to what the east coast-based press seems to think, it's a solved problem.

Individual counties have long had the right to conduct their elections entirely by mail, and some of the larger ones did for the March primaries. Plus, the percentage of mail voters has been rising steadily since the early 2000, and was well over 50% in the last election. Anyone interested can track the vote processing at the SoS website and see the daily updates as more ballots are processed.

I wish the MSM would stop playing into Trump's fear-mongering and look at how the Western states actually do things - with minimal fuss and bother.

[stillcool]

15. They know how many ballots they've sent out..

so they know what's left to come in. I found this site which is has lots of information about voting/counting/certifying in different states.

https://ballotpedia.org/When_states_can_begin_processing_and_counting_absentee/mail-in_ballots,_2020

[JustAnotherGen]

17. Or their state legislatures

Could vote to allow the votes to be counted two weeks prior to November 3.

That's what is going to happen in NJ. The Vote Tracker tool we have is very helpful too.

I'm just trying to decide on redistricting then will take my vote to the county ballot box this weekend.