Polling this election is very similar to Obama vs McCain and way stronger than Obama vs Romney

[Quixote1818]

Last edited Sat Sep 26, 2020, 10:02 PM - Edit history (1)

Trump vs Biden: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Obama vs Romney: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Obama vs McCain was even until the last month when Obama took a huge lead: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Hillary vs Trump was kind of all over the place but generally closer than Biden vs Trump which seems incredibly stable. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Blue Owl]

1. K&R

[David__77]

2. There is greater polarization now, I would think.

That may make for greater stability.

[regnaD kciN]

3. Hillary versus Trump was "not as close"...?

Right now, Biden is up 6.8%. Post-conventions, the only time Clinton had a lead that size was in the immediate aftermath of the "pussy-grabber" tape. Generally, her lead was only about 5% or less, and, of course, quickly collapsed to around 3% after Comeygate.

Also keep in mind that poll modeling this time around has been adjusted based on lessons learned in 2016 (a larger percentage of whites without college education, most notably). Therefore, even an equivalent lead this time around is likely more secure than four years ago.

Finally, when looking at 2008, note that it was pretty much a dead heat until the mid-September stock market collapse that signaled the beginning of the Great Recession, which was unquestionably the event that swung the election in our favor.

[regnaD kciN]

4. And one other interesting point...

Looking at the 2016 results, the one poll that showed Trump narrowly winning was the USC tracking poll (formerly L.A. Times/USC, now USC/Donsife). This year, they're showing a double-digit Biden lead.

[Quixote1818]

5. Sorry, I wrote that wrong. Meant it the other way around. nt