I'm now saying three of the four Senate pickups we need are locked in:

[brooklynite]

Mark Kelly (AZ)
John Hickenlooper (CO)
Cal Cunningham (NC)

We are ahead in IA and ME.

We are competitive in AK, KS, MT and GA.

[ok_cpu]

1. What do you think about SC?

Is Graham not in as much trouble as some polls have suggested?

[brooklynite]

11. One poll is not a significant data point.

[helpisontheway]

15. Several polls in the past have shown them tied or Lindsay ahead by a couple points. Nt

[Statistical]

22. Lying Lindsey is in trouble no doubt but I wouldn't call that a lock.

One poll has Harris up 2 pts (within the 4 pt margin of error) all the rest have it either tied or Graham up 1 or 2.

It is certainly winnable. I have been playing a game where every time Lying Lindsey annoys me I give money to Harrison. It is turning out to be an expensive game but going to a good cause.

[rso]

2. Senate

We only need 3 if we win the WH, as VP Harris would break the tie.

[Ace Rothstein]

5. We're going to lose the AL seat.

[hlthe2b]

16. Sad because I think Doug Jones is worth fighting for. But, the $$$ pragmatically have to go

to those states most likely to deliver a win. Depressing, but true. And Alabama will once again be led by a total friggin moron.

[DFW]

24. I know, but I sent him a couple of hundred dollars anyway

If no one does, then it looks really bad. I gave plenty elsewhere, including to Jaime Harrison, since Leningrad Lindsey is looking worse by the day.

[Tanuki]

29. You just inspired me to make a donation to Doug Jones' campaign!

He is a good man and deserves our support. Even if his campaign appears doomed, he is going down fighting the good fight and I will be proud to lend a hand. If anyone else wants to help Doug Jones, here is a link:

https://dougjones.com

[DFW]

37. I wasn't looking to get anyone else to follow my example, but..........

Thanks for helping out. He DOES deserve support, and it has to come from somewhere. With all the worthy candidates out there, it is unrealistic to expect everyone to spare a check for all of them, especially those who seem to have the most uphill races. But if not from Democrats, then who? He is one of my choices, that's all. I'm glad to hear he is now one of yours!

[LakeArenal]

27. Not sure why not. Biden is racking up hundreds of millions in cash.

[hlthe2b]

28. Well, Jones just put out a very hard-hitting ad against his rather addled opponent, so maybe $$

is starting to flow his way.

[rso]

19. Senate

I know, all I’m saying is that a net pickup of 3 will work if we win the WH.

[jimfields33]

3. I would put Maine as a lock before North Carolina

Maine is bluer and has rank voting. North Carolina only went democratic once in 15 years or so.

[grantcart]

6. Last Tillis poll showed him down to 38%. He is toast

[jimfields33]

31. That's good.

[grantcart]

4. ME is as locked in as AZ, no?

Strange poll showing MI close.

GA doesn't look good.

You forgot SC

[hlthe2b]

7. I think Bullock will get a boost from the Fed Judge removal of that despicable Trump Lands Official

the very corrupt, William Perry Pendley.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/federal-judge-removes-trumps-public-lands-chief-in-win-for-democratic-montana-senate-candidate

I also think the recent poll is far less close because they included a Green Party candidate in error who is not on the ballot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/upshot/montana-poll-election.html

[BlueMTexpat]

9. I am REALLY hoping

for this.

Public lands are a cross-party interest in MT.

I'm hoping that any momentum also carries over to Cooney (Gov) and Williams (Congress).

[hlthe2b]

10. Issue across the entire west, for sure.

[BlueMTexpat]

8. We're also looking good in SC.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/south-carolina/

Go Harrison!

[TexasTowelie]

12. Mixed feelings about Kansas.

Bollier was a Republican until 2018. I believe that she is the only major politician in Kansas that did not receive an endorsement from President Obama.

[hlthe2b]

18. I always worry re: those who've changed parties. They can do so again. Think Ben Nighthorse Campbell

who broke the heart of many a Native American, as well as most of Colorado.

Still, Bollier is the Dem candidate, so I hope for the best.

[yardwork]

13. NC is never locked in. Vote like the hounds of hell are after us, because they are.

[brooklynite]

21. Tillis is at 38%...

...that's not a margin you can overcome even with voting issues.

[Demsrule86]

14. Excellent news Brooklyn. Thanks. K&R

[cwydro]

17. I'm in NC.

I really, really hope you’re right about Cunningham. That would be fantastic.

[honest.abe]

20. I think Maine is a lock too.

She is up 6.5 avg in the recent polling.

[Politicalgolfer]

23. Do we need 4 or 5 if we (probably) lose Alabama?

???

[honest.abe]

25. 5 for a majority but 4 for 50-50 tie.

Then VP Harris will be the 51st vote.

[scipan]

38. It is now 53-47 (2 indies caucus with Dems)

That means we only need 4 for a majority.

[honest.abe]

39. We are probably going to lose Alabama.

So we need 5 for majority.

[BSdetect]

26. Nothing can be locked as they will be making every effort to keep the Senate

And that means any dirty cheat

[lostnfound]

30. Losing ground in Michigan though

According to polls they discussed on msnbc this morning
On a senate race.

[W_HAMILTON]

32. What makes you think that Cunningham is a sure thing?

I would say that Gideon is a sure thing before I would say Cunningham is, but from your lips to god's ears!

[mnhtnbb]

33. Cunningham is up 10 points in the latest poll.

[brooklynite]

35. Agreed

[jorgevlorgan]

34. I truly believe we can win up to 14 or 15 if it is an amazing night

If we keep AL, then just add in the last tier of somewhat competitive states MS, TX, LA, and the other seat in GA.

Not super super likely, but definitely possible. It would be the most seats gained by one party in history, I believe.

[Roland99]

36. AL and MI are close and in danger, don't forget

Peters is averaging +3.8 in MI and that's right in that upper range of MoE

BUT, the trump-leaning Trafalgar Group poll had James +1.4 earlier this month and now they're in a virtual tie. That's some good positive movement for us in their poll!

[honest.abe]

40. I think we hold Michigan but lose Alabama.

Trafalgar is a scam polling operation... imo.