New Post/ABC poll of Pennsylvania

[octoberlib]

Link to tweet

New Post/ABC poll of Pennsylvania:

Biden 54%
Trump 45%

Notably, that 9 point lead is the same as the one in yesterday's NYT/Siena poll.

[Sherman A1]

1. Hope those numbers improve as we get closer

And Biden-Harris wins 63 states crushing the breath out of the GOP.

[octoberlib]

2. People are saying the NYT article won't make a difference but research

shows Americans hate tax avoiders/cheats. I think the numbers will keep improving.

[onetexan]

3. Spot on. Americans can't tolerate a tax cheat, esp'ly one who brags about being worth 10 billion

He's a liar &a cheat in every aspect of his life.

[Sherman A1]

7. I don't think The NY Times article by itself will make much difference

I do believe it along with the numerous other recent revelations will add up. His base is with him no matter what and the GOP leadership is stuck with the monster they helped create, but each of these announcements will peal off a few voters. Hopefully it’s enough to deal the GOP a soul crushing defeat in November as we win 63 states, a few territories and the intergalactic vote.

[lagomorph777]

21. 9 points in a swing state is an extreme lead.

I'll take it as it stands.

[sunonmars]

27. a 9% win in 2016 would have been around 550,000 votes lead, its huge

[malaise]

4. Biden goes into the debate with huge numbers in his state

It is going to be a wipeout!

[Bigredhunk]

5. Yessss!

Giddeyup!

[OrlandoDem2]

6. Women and POC need to GOTV like never before!! Healthcare and civil rights will be taken away and

Trump must suffer the consequences!

[bucolic_frolic]

8. Not a poll follower, but I don't ever recall a Democrat polling in the mid-50s in PA

A very good sign in my view. If we get over 50, Trump's done in PA.

[Amishman]

9. I think this poll might be at the high end of the MoE

Trump's support out here in the countryside is much more visible than 2016.

I think Biden wins the state with right at or just above 50%

I put a floor on Trump in PA of about 45%, and third parties will grab 2-3% as well.

[Wounded Bear]

20. Reading into the article, it says MoE is 5%...

which is high for a poll, but the results are out of the MoE by a significant amount.

I like the trends, at least.

[lagomorph777]

24. Even in Pennsylbama, voters don't like tax cheats. Or being killed.

Trump is murdering hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately his own supporters. This is not good campaign practice.

[NewJeffCT]

30. the poll was likely conducted

before the NY Times tax bombshells landed

[lagomorph777]

31. Yup - the margin will only widen from here.

[DeminPennswoods]

13. I'd guess Gov Casey did

nt

[BumRushDaShow]

10. Here is the issue I have about the poll's headline assusmption and the poll itself

Biden’s support stands at 54 percent to Trump’s 45 percent among the Keystone State’s likely voters and 54 percent to 44 percent among its registered voters. Biden’s current edge among likely voters appears sizable but is not definitive, given the five-point margin of error that applies to each candidate’s support. Other polls of Pennsylvania this month have found Biden leading Trump by an average of eight points.

With five weeks until Election Day, the poll finds that 53 percent of Pennsylvania’s registered voters approve of Trump’s management of the economy, but 57 percent disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and that issue appears to sway more voters than does the economy. Trump’s overall approval rating in the state among registered voters is 43 percent positive and 55 percent negative, with 49 percent saying they disapprove “strongly.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/29/biden-trump-pennsylvania-poll/

In this election game, the whole concept of "registered voters" is a complete meaningless metric only meant to sucker a person in before they sucker-punch you with the "likely voter" metric, which itself is nothing more than a "guess".

And then for "likely voters", they show a fucking 5% MOE? The poll only looked at 567 "likely voters" (who did they considered "likely" )?

And then bullshit about " 53 percent of Pennsylvania’s registered voters approve of Trump’s management of the economy"? The UE in PA (as of August) was 10.3%.

I hate to say it and repeat a 20+ year mantra about it being "the economy stupid" because you still have loons who believe that coronavirus is a "hoax" or "isn't that bad and is like the flu" (despite the fact that I just saw a mention, I think yesterday, where the death toll has now surpassed the combined total of deaths caused by all other major outbreaks like flu, measles, polio, ebola, etc.).

[Demsrule86]

11. consider that likely voters is based on turn out in 16. I think we will see way more voters

turning out...so yeah I think we are likely to win by big numbers.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Here is one of the issues I brought up about it being "the economy stupid"

14. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Which of the following is the single most important issue in your choice for president –(the economy), (the coronavirus outbreak), (crime and safety), (health care), (equal treatment of racial groups), or (the next appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court) ?

Among registered voters in Pennsylvania: 9/26/20

Economy 25
Coronavirus outbreak 18
Crime and safety 14
Equal treatment of racial groups 13
Health care 12
Appointment to U.S. SupremeCourt 9
Other (vol.) 7No opinion 2

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/55ca9d44-d341-4d37-9edd-93785b8d1e6c/note/43c78239-b16f-43c9-b30d-d79fcb950932.#page=1

I think the only way to "correct" for what they may be considering "likely voters" this go-around, is to look to 2018, that although was an "off year" election, may have some clues about "new voters" who either didn't vote in 2016, voted 3rd party in 2016, or were not old enough to vote at the time, but then came out in 2018 to flip some seats - i.e., Democrats gained 10 seats in the state House and 4 seats in the State Senate (where only 1/2 of the Senators were up, as I believe those have 4-year terms).

ETA - I found a graphic of what happened between 2016 and 2018 with the state's House reps (from here - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-house-seats-vs-votes/)-



The "likely voters" metric in 2016 was off the mark, as a group from out of nowhere, many of them racist scum, voted for the first time in 2016, which was enough to offset those who "believed the hype" due to foreign interference, and/or experienced other means of voter suppression.

[DeminPennswoods]

14. LV models are somewhat problematic for all pollsters,

but this poll does also give the same data for registered voters. Pollsters generally work off registered voter lists, too.

Given so few undecideds (1%), the pollster must have pressed "leaners" for their choice.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Yeah - the numbers for "registered" and "likely" in this poll are near identical

which if taken at face value, suggests that people have pretty much "made up their minds" (assuming people aren't lying when they respond to a poll) and it comes down to turn out, and getting the votes correctly registered and tabulated.

[DeminPennswoods]

19. Agree, I think this election has been baked in

for awhile. What's truly stunning is the split between "somewhat disapprove" and "strongly disapprove". Well over 90% of the total disapproval is "strongly disapprove". "Strongly disapprove" is nearly double the number of "strongly approve", too.

Of all the PA polls I've seen I don't think Trump has topped 45% in any of them.

[MissB]

22. I agree.

My son lives in Pittsburgh and said that as of yesterday, 25% of Allegheny county residents had been approved for mail in ballots.

When you think about that, that’s a huge number, because all of Allegheny county population includes kids under the age of 18 not eligible to vote.

[lindysalsagal]

15. 567 isn't a big enough sample in a state this diverse

PA has everything from ex pat NYC's to alabama, and urban black and violent racists. I'd put more confidence in a larger sample, honestly.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Agree, although I know the all-important "state polls" tend to have smaller numbers of respondents

and are done less frequently than the almighty "national polls".

[DeminPennswoods]

23. Statististically valid sample explained

Link: https://iqsresearch.com/what-makes-a-statistically-valid-sample/

Let’s try an example: Let’s say we want to find out what percentage of the population of Louisville, Kentucky, would say vanilla is their favorite flavor of ice cream.

The best, most accurate way to find out would be to ask every single person in Louisville. But at 1,000,000 people in the region, that’s impossible. So statisticians and researchers have created methods that allow us to ask a sample of the population to get that information we want.

So what is a small enough sample that we can predict how many Louisvillians like vanilla ice cream? Half a million? No. How about 100,000? No, smaller. Maybe 10,000? Nope.

Surprisingly enough, for a population of about one million people, we would only need to survey 384 people to get a reliable answer. There are specific factors we have to consider regarding who to pick, making sure all pockets of the population are included, and the quality of the research basis, but if we can satisfy all those factors, we only have to talk to 384 people total.

[Tommymac]

18. Former Gov Tom Ridge's endorsement is huge.

I know here in Western PA it has made a lot of my conservative friends and family think really hard.

Democracy started in Philadelphia in 1775.

Democracy will be saved here in 2020.

Vote for decency and honor - Vote Joe & Kamala.

GOTV!!!!!!

[marble falls]

25. No doubt the poll is accurate but I am still going to act like the results are the other ...

way around until Nov3 midnite.

[BootinUp]

26. Are you ready to rumble! Nt

[Boogiemack]

28. Presidents who lie and cheat on their taxes are lying to and cheating the people

they are supposed to serve and protect.

[BlueWavePsych]

29. Post-ABC poll: Biden leads Trump in battleground state of Pennsylvania

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/29/biden-trump-pennsylvania-poll/